Big jump in projected cost of the AE top-up

Duke of Marmalade

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Jon Ihle of the Sunday Times last Sunday covered the following exchange in the Dáil.
Question
To ask the Minister for Social Protection ...the reason for the difference between the €794 million estimate for the year-10 Exchequer contribution to auto-enrolment provided in that reply [to an earlier PQ] and the €539 million estimate for the year-10 Exchequer contribution to auto-enrolment ...as outlined on page 7 of the Automatic Enrolment Retirement Savings System Bill 2024 bill digest of 15 April 2024.
Reply
The difference in the cost of the State top-up...is due to a range of factors, including the value of base salaries used to estimate the cost in Year 1, variations in wage inflation over the ten year period to arrive at the cost in Year 10, and refinement in the projected numbers of the target population.

Year-10 is the first year that the full 6% contribution applies and that is why the focus is on the cost in that year.
+47% is quite a change in the estimates in slightly over a year!
 
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