Betfair giving odds of 9/1 on Bitcoin being over $50k at the end of the year

[Brendan Burgess]

You should ask them to put up a more aggressive line for yourself Brendan , Bitcoin under 100$ or whatever you think it will drop to

Hi Fella

That is a very interesting point.

Bitcoin will crash.

I don't know if the believers will still assign it a residual value.

It might crash to a couple of dollars and then rebound a bit. So this time next year, there could have been a crash but the price might still be a few hundred dollars.

On balance, I am very happy with the below $5,000 bet.

If they change the bands to "Below $100" and $101 to $5000" , then I think it would be too risky to bet.

The odds on below $100 would have to be much higher than the current evens on below $5,000.

Brendan

 

[Dan Murray]

I doubt the Boss would have any problem at all with that proposition. Go on fix it on the QT. Oh dear, broke my new year's resolution not to engage with you

Hey Duke,

I purposely made a critical typo to see if this might help engage Brendan. Alas, it failed. No more of it.

I know you have always been much more concerned about what's right rather than who's right. It would be great if you would be good enough to explain my point to your boss - there is, perhaps, some chance that he might listen to you?

 

[Brendan Burgess]

You also made up your mind about some probabilities and certain price bands.

The guy that wants to lay it at 9.5/1 will probably have value , not you backing it.
The guy trying to back at 40/1 will probably have value.

Hi Ant

What I was trying to do was give my estimate of the probability of all the various outcomes. Then work out the fair odds. I certainly haven't made up my mind. I am giving my best estimate but I would welcome hearing other people's estimates.

Brendan

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Hey Duke,

I purposely made a critical typo to see if this might help engage Brendan.

You think purposeful traps add to AAM? There is the reason for my new year's resolution not to engage with you, which I have now broken for the nth time but absolutely no more. If you abuse this self restraint I will report your posts.

 

[TheBigShort]

What I was trying to do was give my estimate of the probability of all the various outcomes. Then work out the fair odds. I certainly haven't made up my mind. I am giving my best estimate but I would welcome hearing other people's estimates.

After yesterdays 9% fall to 90% in the BB Bitcoin to Zero Certainty Index, how much is it falling by now? I thought that there was only one outcome?