Anglo Irish Capital Plus - IPD and EPRA

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Privinv

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Hi

I am considering the above investment which tracks IPD UK Annual Index ( of UK commercial properties) and EPRA (tracks performance of Eurozone's top property companies).

Both of these indices have shown significiant rise sover the past two years. I would appreciate any opinions on how they might fare over the next few years.
 
Past performance is no guide to future returns. You are looking for advice on how to predict the future and nobody can do that.
 
ClubMan said:
Past performance is no guide to future returns. You are looking for advice on how to predict the future and nobody can do that.
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I don't need patronising Clubman. I am just seeking points of view on UK and Eurozone commercial property.
 
I wasn't patronising. Lots of people here and elsewhere ask how things will go in the future without realising that it's an unanswerable question. I always err on the side of caution when answering such comments.
 
One thing I like about AAM is these are always people willing to give points of view. I am not so stupid as to expect that some one can crystal ball gaze. My query is a valid one and would appreciate reason points of view from other subscribers, and then it is up to me to make my own decisions.
 
In any cyclical market a run of strong growth (e.g. over the past few years) might tend to increase the chances of growth slowing, levelling off or falling in following years.
 
EPRA has been doing really badly over the last couple of months, it's well off its highs for the year even when the DAX FTSE and Eurostoxx recovered strongly. Prior to february it had a very long bull run for years, massively outperforming ordinary equity indices.

Derivatives linked to IPD have been getting much cheaper as developers reduce their exposure to UK commercial property by selling them.

This isn't an opinion, just a couple of observations.
 
verbatim said:
EPRA has been doing really badly over the last couple of months, it's well off its highs for the year even when the DAX FTSE and Eurostoxx recovered strongly. Prior to february it had a very long bull run for years, massively outperforming ordinary equity indices.

Derivatives linked to IPD have been getting much cheaper as developers reduce their exposure to UK commercial property by selling them.
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Thanks Verbatim. I have been trying unsuccessfully to get information on the internet on how EPRA has been faring, have you any suggestions? Also with the general improvement in the Eurozone economies would it be reasonable to expect improvement in the property sector there over time ?
 
Privinv said:
Thanks Verbatim. I have been trying unsuccessfully to get information on the internet on how EPRA has been faring, have you any suggestions? Also with the general improvement in the Eurozone economies would it be reasonable to expect improvement in the property sector there over time ?
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Try this link to get a chart of the EPRA.
[broken link removed]

There are tonnes of different EPRA indices.

To get a useful chart, pick a start date in Jan 2001
Under "data type" pick "close price"
under "region" pick "europe"
under "name" pick "EPRA/NAREIT Europe ex UK" (I think this is the correct one, check the brochure)
under "index type" pick "price"
under "currency" pick "EUR"

This should give you the relevant chart.

You should see a graph that is just above 1000 in Jan 2003, and peaks just under 3500 in Feb of this year. EPRA is about 14% below the peak now.

I'm not expert enough in property stocks to be giving out advice. Personally though I'd be looking at how this index has outperformed Eurostoxx so much over the last few years, and how much it's underperformed recently and I'd be thinking that possibly this index has had it's day, and sentiment has turned against the property sector. There have been some strong rallies in stocks recently and the EPRA hasn't taken part. You could also look at the recent dip as a great opportunity to get involved if you're of a bullish nature.

Best of luck.
 
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