Accuracy of Chinese numbers

[SPC100]

Given the numbers we are seeing in countries outside of China, it is becoming harder to believe the Chinese numbers.

Anyone have any views on this?

E.g. potentially reporting a corona deaths as just a death.

 

[odyssey06]

From when the WHO got seriously involved... reliable.
Before that... not reliable. As you say recording deaths but not attributing to coronavirus. Would need to see excess mortality rates for Hubei.

 

[SPC100]

Any source for their actual mortality rates during this period?

Were there WHO staff on the ground? How did WHO involvement make data more reliable?

 

[odyssey06]

Any source for their actual mortality rates during this period?
Were there WHO staff on the ground? How did WHO involvement make data more reliable?

No, they have been v quiet about the actual mortality rates.

There were WHO staff in February I think, but by late January there was intense WHO and media attention on the figures. Before that, it was obvious from their suppression of the doctors warnings that they were trying to cover it up.

 

[SPC100]

I've heard rumours that number of dead there might be 10x official figures.

Also people highlight that the queues to get back the ashes of loved ones don't appear to line up with the official figures.

 

[odyssey06]

I've heard rumours that number of dead there might be 10x official figures.

That would not surprise me - it would tally more with the scale of the Chinese reaction.

 

[Leo]

There was coverage of a report yesterday suggesting the mortality rate was a lot lower than first thought.

The problem in comparing the China numbers to anywhere else is the measures China put in place to lock down the population. There aren't too many other countries who have mass surveillance & facial recognition to monitor movement of population, or who would like the extent of the controls they put in place.