Abortion Referendum, will it pass

Discussion in 'Letting Off Steam' started by cremeegg, 21 May 2018.

  1. cremeegg

    cremeegg Frequent Poster

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    I have put this on a separate thread, so that it does not distract from the serious discussion and many excellent posts, on both sides, on the other thread.

    I think that this referendum will pass, the polls and the bookies both say it will. I overheard a discussion in deepest rural Ireland the other day where the opinion was generally supportive. I predict that the difference between city and country constituencies will not be as great as expected.

    I do not believe that there is a hidden No vote.

    If it does pass, it is a remarkable change in Irish society. I was sure that the mention of unrestricted abortion up to 12 weeks would not be acceptable to a large majority of Irish people.
     
  2. Betsy Og

    Betsy Og Frequent Poster

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    Think it will pass but on a narrow margin, I saw polls saying 56%, doubt it will be that conclusive tbh. As the campaign no doubt gets even worse in the next few days I think it will goad some unmotivateds into voting Yes, whether that will be enough to counteract those voting No but staying schtum is hard to tell. No harm for some on the Yes to air the 'what ifs' it doesn't pass, apathy or even protest vote is what can make the difference, worst thing that could happen is a few polls more than 60% yes, leading people not to bother.
     
  3. michaelm

    michaelm Frequent Poster

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    I think it will pass also. Yes is currently 1/7 & No is 4/1. Most likely is Yes between 50 - 60% @ 8/13 with Ladbrokes.
     
  4. dereko1969

    dereko1969 Frequent Poster

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    I think it will but a lot will depend on turnout, No voters will definitely vote, Yes inclined voters may be less likely to vote particularly with the talk of a definite Yes win. If turnout is above 60% Yes will win.
     
  5. Sunny

    Sunny Frequent Poster

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    Well if the exit polls are to be believed, it is a staggering result. Especially the rural Ireland vote.
     
  6. Andarma

    Andarma Frequent Poster

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    Amazing result, if that exit poll turns out to be accurate. I am so relieved.
     
  7. Delboy

    Delboy Frequent Poster

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    Landslide. Over to the politicians now where the real fun starts
     
  8. Duke of Marmalade

    Duke of Marmalade Frequent Poster

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    Last edited: 25 May 2018
    Well, cremegg as usual your predictive powers on these matters has proved correct. We can now see with this and the SSM referendum that the dreadful failings of the RC church have fundamentally changed how Irish people view the interaction of state legislation with private morality, for better or worse.
     
    Last edited: 25 May 2018
  9. Betsy Og

    Betsy Og Frequent Poster

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    Tight polls helped Yes I think, less complacency. Staggered by margin though.

    I'm not usually one for sewing it into the church, but given the margin and on such a hot topic, I do think they need to pack the tent, rise out of education and health and come back as...wait for it.... a religion! Novel, drastic but the time for mass movement religion (no pun intended) is over. It can then become a tight church of believers, not this decaying veneer spread thin over a country that doesn't want it.
     
    dub_nerd likes this.
  10. odyssey06

    odyssey06 Frequent Poster

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    Due to GDPR regulations, the votes were deleted before they could be counted, therefore the referendum didn't past. At least, that's how I interpreted the bulletin on AAM.
     
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  11. Purple

    Purple Frequent Poster

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    Ohh, I like that! Can I use it?
     
  12. Purple

    Purple Frequent Poster

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    Is it not the case that the failings of the RC church have fundamentally changed how Irish people view the interaction of state legislation with religious morality. Private morality has always existed. Religions pretend that they are the originator of that morality but they are not.
     
  13. Betsy Og

    Betsy Og Frequent Poster

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    But of course, this is the internet age, if you were a reporter with the journal it would be up there already. :D Thanks for asking though......
     
  14. dub_nerd

    dub_nerd Frequent Poster

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    Best comment I've seen on this to date, and I've felt the same for a long time. Only thing in the way is the bishops who don't want to admit they've brought the place down around their ears. Interesting article here with recommendations for Ireland from a priest with experience of cultural Christianity in both the CofE and the USA, and a contrasting experience as a small religious minority in the southern US. He basically agrees with you too.
     
  15. Purple

    Purple Frequent Poster

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    Interesting article and good points but his hearkening for a very conservative "high Church Anglican" type Church is, for me, a retrenchment back into a very conservative Church. It would have a very grey congregation and would die out with them.
     
  16. cremeegg

    cremeegg Frequent Poster

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    Diarmuid Martin has often spoken against the Catholic Church in Ireland becoming a religion of a small minority, immune to outside influence. He thinks it would become isolated from broader society and have nothing to offer the world. I will add a source if I can find one.
     
  17. Purple

    Purple Frequent Poster

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    I've a lot of time for Diarmuid Martin. I think he's right in what he says here.
     
  18. dub_nerd

    dub_nerd Frequent Poster

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    I understand where Diarmuid Martin is coming from but I think he's part of the problem. If the broader society wants nothing to do with the Catholic Church -- and with seven out of eight people under 35 voting for abortion, it absolutely doesn't -- it has no option but to retrench. What does Bishop Martin think the church is offering now, other than the fancy dress parties of first communions and weddings?
     
  19. Purple

    Purple Frequent Poster

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    I think that's a big difference between what the RC Church thinks it's offering and what it is offering. Fundamentally it, like all religions, thinks it is offering spiritual fulfillment. It thinks that spirituality and morality come from God. The majority of people seem to disagree. They see how there is a gulf between the words and the deeds of the RC Church, certainly historically. They see compassion to mean that you don't ostracise people because they are LGBT or were born outside marriage or are divorced etc. and so are at odds with the teachings of the Church.
    When I was a kid I was thought that God was love. In my simple childish mind that love was unqualified and compassionate. As I grew I found that to be incompatible with the teachings and practice of the Church.
     
  20. dub_nerd

    dub_nerd Frequent Poster

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    I see three things being conflated there: 1) is there a god who is the source of objective morality, 2) are some things objectively bad, 3) are there hypocrites in the RC church? Seems to me the answers to all three are somewhat independent of each other.