Does that not assume that:- (a) 100% of these properties will be sold; and (b) 100% of these properties will be sold to owner occupiers?
Neither assumption seems very realistic to me.
TBH, I really don't see how the expiry of the 7-year minimum holding period could have any significant impact on the rental or sales market. In any event, I think there is zero chance of the 7-year period being extended.
There were approx 36.2k transactions on the PPR. Mortgages by volume were 16.4k, indicating 20k cash only transactions. Approx 55% cash to 45% mortgage. This year has swung to circa 40% cash to 60 mortgage.
If 20-40% of the cash only were getting out at the end of the CGT relief period, we would see 4-8k units come online. Not insignificant. Pretty sure figures are similar for 2012/13.
@ landlord - Removal of rental property also removes a potential tenant. If the house is let, it is off the market anyway.
i wouldnt pay any heed to anything id read on the property pin
its a site reserved for permabear cranks , even in 2012 , most were predicting the average house in dublin would drop to around 120 k for a three bed semi
i wouldnt pay any heed to anything id read on the property pin
its a site reserved for permabear cranks , even in 2012 , most were predicting the average house in dublin would drop to around 120 k for a three bed semi
They're statistics from official sources. It simply shows the property market has flipped from cash driven to mortgage driven over the years. Factors likely include ECB monetary policy, bank lending policy, economic activity, jobs & the CGT relief
On the other side, forums evolve. Very few permabears. Though I might be one of them. There's even a thread where someone called the bottom for supply reasons.
That's interesting, though I wouldn't expect it to be frantic with the expiry being anything from 18 months to 3.5 years. Would the logical approach not be to look at the market 6 months beforehand, assess the figures and make decisions then? It's not an area I operate in (client management), so no idea.