"43,000 landlords exiting the market..." but how many are buying in?

Brendan Burgess

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The only commentary I have heard is of landlords exiting the market.
But surely there are others getting into the market or increasing their holdings.

Any data on this or any discussion which I have missed?

There is a big net exit to be sure, but is it really 43,000 ?

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Any data on this or any discussion which I have missed?
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There is BPFI data on what they call residential investment lettings (RIL) data. So basically BTL mortgages to individuals.

There were only 220 of these mortgages granted in Q42022, so probably about a thousand in the full year. There is no data that I know of regarding cash buyers of BTL properties.

Census data in June will give a better idea of how many private rented dwellings there are.
 
It is the fall of lease agreement registered with rtb since 2016.
Another stats, this time by estate agents, 21k ex rentals were sold last year with about 6k bought by private LL.
Having looked at the houses for sales in my areas for a good few years, it is extremely clear and visible that LL are selling and preparing to sell (clearing apartments...)
If you are in a Rpz, the numbers simply don't add up anymore, even when you own the property. Having "needy" children is one of the main reason I have decided to keep going for now. I am not complaining, just looking at the maths.
 
azerty said:
Another stats, this time by estate agents, 21k ex rentals were sold last year with about 6k bought by private LL.
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But rentals can enter and exit the market via other means: inheritance, homeowners moving abroad and coming back, etc.

All of the evidence points to a shrinking pool of private rented dwellings but the magnitude is not at all clear and won't be until Census data on housing is released on July 27.
 
NoRegretsCoyote said:
But rentals can enter and exit the market via other means: inheritance, homeowners moving abroad and coming back, etc.
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Yet every time someone posts a question here about their options regarding an empty property, the consensus is that they shouldn't rent it because it's too risky an option.

And that consensus is almost always correct.
 
You are right that the magnitude is not clear. I think the census data will be out of date because things could have in fact accelerated in terms of LL selling. The amount of ex rental appartements for sell have increased. I know it's just an observation but as I said, I have been looking for a good few years. While you might have had one or two at one time, you can now find 4 or 5 in the same area and price bracket. In a small development where there had been 3 sales in 8/9 years, there was 3 last year, I know of 3 that are for sell or going for sale.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
But is that not clear enough?

Brendan
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I would say it is. Apart if a substantial amount of LL have decided they had enough of the rtb and regulations and did not registered anymore. I would think it is unlikely in these numbers.
 
Hi azerty

Could you link me to the source?

There is a tendency for people to pick a number out of the air , say it with confidence, and the rest of us, repeat it, as I did in the heading.

You linked it to the RTB - have you a link to it on their website?

Brendan
 
The number of registered tenancies were historically inflated in the RTB because they often weren't informed that tenancies were ending, and it seems there were particular issues in 2021 (edited) with tenancies not being removed, so the RTB don't trust their own records and came up with an estimation process.

It isn't like for like but there are notices of termination figures (majority of them for purposes of sale) covering Q1 & Q2 2022 that show huge increases on both 2020 and 2021. Unless new entrants rose at an offsetting rate (doesn't seem likely) then the trend in a drop in tenancies dating back to 2016 would have continued (and likely increased) over 2022. In Q3 the obligation to report end of tenancy to RTB came in so the figures are more reflective of the actual notices to terminate (much larger at close to 5,000 in Q3). There are also tenancies that might end when tenants move out and the landlord decides to sell, they might have a lag in appearing in the registration figures.
 
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RonnieShinbal88 said:
The number of registered tenancies were historically inflated in the RTB because they often weren't informed that tenancies were ending,
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And the RTB often wasn't informed when they began either.

Census 2011 found 320k households in private rented accommodation but the RTB Annual Report for the same year says there were 260k registered tenancies.

I think landlord compliance is a lot better in 2023 than it was in 2011, but I will still wait to see the Census numbers before drawing too many conclusions.
 
If we counterweigh two sets of garbage data, our conclusions are unlikely to be anything better.
 
2011 RTB data was gathered in a very different regulatory environment in fairness relative to where we are now. I think we can assume that the majority of new entrants are registering tenancies within the current regulation environment, they are likely to be mostly institutional investors at this stage. The question is whether they are offsetting the small landlords leaving.

RTB now have accurate notice to quit figures since Q3 and they also have accurate new registration figures, they are in a good position to work out an accurate trend in registrations going forward if requested by government for example, you'd probably want to wait a number of quarters for any trend and it's going to be confounded by the eviction ban in Q4 etc.

A separate consideration is that even with 100% replacement you have 5,000 tenancies from Q3 that now have to find a new tenancy and majority are moving from a rent-controlled legacy rent to a more expensive or new entrant, peak market rent. Many of them may not be able to afford to do so, but even if they can the process will increase rent levels in Ireland making us less competitive in keeping or attracting talent.
 
T McGibney said:
If we counterweigh two sets of garbage data,
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The Census data is very good quality. They literally knock on every door in the country. Sure there is some non response but people generally trust the CSO.

This is right and I think the RTB data on flows going forward should be reliable. I think it will take a long time for the stock data based on the flows to catch up and Census 2022 and indeed Census 2026 will still be important to understand the trends.
 
Thanks guys. I am still a bit confused.


I suspect that the growth in this is misleading as it reflects increased compliance.
But the fall is more reliable - or is it? They estimate the 2021 figure, but do they need to revise the early figures to make them comparable?

Can anyone do a summary table which would be easier to follow?
Of course, the RTB should do it. I will contact them next week.

Brendan
 
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