New CSO House Price Index

I noticed in the Irish Times today a small piece noting the launch of a new Independent House Price Index from the Central Statistics Office. The first index level will be announced on Friday 13th May. Whoever picked that date in the CSO has a dark sense of humour! This has been badly needed for a long time and will replace the usual PTSB and Daft indices that are being used by the media at the moment. Everytime I hear new data from either index I feel they are not accurate and the reality seems different. The Daft indices in particular is limited and doesn't seem to mirror the wider market. The new CSO index will use data from 8 banks, gathering mortgage drawdown figures to estimate the average price for each particular unit type (Apartment, Semi D, Detached etc). The first index will show data going back to 2005 and will be issued monthly from May onwards. This will finally allow us to get a more accurate estimate of property prices and a reliable regular and independent monthly trend.
One downside of all this good information is its usefullness for the government if/when they introduce property taxes.

I can't post links yet, but the full article is in todays Irish Times (28th April 2011, Property Supplement)

[broken link removed]

Agree David. About time to get an independent index.

I dont trust the Daft one at all, and it just seems to be an exercise in publicity for them. Similarly the pTSB one is also flawed due to the composition of their book.

Why not just have a register of house prices based on what the house actually sold for so you could see exactly how houses are valued in an area like they do in the UK?

fobs said:

Why not just have a register of house prices based on what the house actually soled for so you could see exactly how houses are valued in an area like they do in the UK?

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I think the vendor/ purchaser here are under no obligation at present to reveal the price. Thats part of the problem.

fobs said:

Why not just have a register of house prices based on what the house actually soled for so you could see exactly how houses are valued in an area like they do in the UK?

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It's coming, supposedly. The National Property Services Regulatory Authority has remained as an interim body for 4 years now pending legislation which will give them powers to publish the information.

Also see a recent article in the [broken link removed]

Just spotted another article in today's Independent

How does this House Price Index differ from the reports Dept of Environment had been producing up until about a year ago, when they just stopped doing it for some reason?
http://www.environ.ie/en/Publications/StatisticsandRegularPublications/HousingStatistics/


Also, do the 8 banks have to provide ALL their mortgage data each month, or just an 'appropriate' sample I wonder.

David Quinn said:

This will finally allow us to get a more accurate estimate of property prices and a reliable regular and independent monthly trend.

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Unfortunately not.

• Actual house prices will not be published.
• It will just index the percentage change of 4 markets. Dublin houses, Dublin apartments, outside Dublin residential price changes and overall national price trends.
• Some mortgage providers are not taking part including Ulster Bank.
• Cash buyers are not included (50% of the market)

So now we can look forward to not one, not two but three flawed house price indices. Super.

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Cash buyers are not included (50% of the market)

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Hi NorfBank

That is a very interesting figure. Is it official or your informed estimate?

Brendan

Sorry for asking a stupid question but would revenue not have actual house prices, for stamp duty purposes? Why can't this data be used?

Brendan Burgess said:

Hi NorfBank

That is a very interesting figure. Is it official or your informed estimate?

Brendan

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I've seen the figure quoted in various sources Brendan but this is the only online one I could find.

A spokesperson for the Real Estate Alliance said that between 40pc and 50pc of the recent house sales were to cash buyers, adding that the recent distressed auction also proved that cash buyers prefer to buy cheaper properties, including houses which need substantial refurbishment.

In other words pulled out of thin air.

NorfBank said:

• Actual house prices will not be published.
• It will just index the percentage change of 4 markets. Dublin houses, Dublin apartments, outside Dublin residential price changes and overall national price trends.
• Some mortgage providers are not taking part including Ulster Bank.
• Cash buyers are not included (50% of the market)

Click to expand...

This is worse than useless.

Why do we often makes a hames of things in Irl?

Both the USA and UK publish actual average house prices.

The March 2011 CSO stats are out [broken link removed]

And this is the [broken link removed]

April 2011 [broken link removed]

[broken link removed]

[broken link removed] and [broken link removed]

House prices in Dublin are 49% lowerthan at their highest level in early 2007 (fell by 1.7% in the month of September)

Apartments in Dublin are now 59% lower than they were in February 2007 (fell by 4.8% in the month of September)

Residential property prices in Dublin are 52% lower than at their highest level in February 2007 (fell by 2.1% in September)

The fall in the price of residential properties in the Rest of Ireland is somewhat lower at 40% (a fall of 1% in September and 14.3% in the year to September)

Overall, the national index is 44% lower than its highest level in 2007 (fell by 1.5% in September)