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Sorry joe I should've been more specific - I mean illiquidity and volatility in the high-yield bond market. No new issues for five and a half weeks until two days ago according to FT. The Nasdaq and Russell were in a bear market two weeks ago, so any sub-normal market activity ought to be...

Nah. Bear market rally. Look at what's happening in the credit markets and in global stocks.

S&P 500 now down 17.54% from its September 20th peak. Nasdaq and Russell 2000 in a bear. Worst December for stocks since 1931(so far). Worst quarter since Q4 2008.

I'm up +25% these last few months thanks to the big market drops but I don't recommend an inexperienced investor try to "time" or short anything. I'm taking calculated risks which aren't appropriate for everyone. Money managers should have hedges in place or be spread out among non-correlated...

More money-losing companies than ever are going public, even compared with the dot-com bubble

I see. Very interesting. Thanks for responding to my questions.

Ah. Fair enough.

There is a massive recency bias in this paper. A snapshot of the period 1986-2017 cannot stand as representative of historical stock market data and it is a mistake to even use the phrase "longer term" in this context. Not every 32-year period is going to encompass equivalents to the bull...

How can you call it a bolt from the blue though? That's the ninth time this year that this stock has spiked after a large drop. In fact that's been its consistent pattern for the last five years.

Mr. Fagan, The sums don't tell the full story though. Here's a hypothetical scenario: suppose your portfolio returns for the next five years are -20% in 2019, -25% in 2020, -10% in 2021, -3% in 2022, +1% in 2023 and +0.8% in 2024. Now what's your average gain for the period 2013 to 2024? Do...

joe sod I agree. I just thought the headline was interesting .. "It was only a matter of time". Suddenly its conventional wisdom that FAANGs were always going to buckle. I don't recall McWilliams or any other mainstream financial journalist predicting it though. It would have been a useful...

Every FAANG stock is now in a bear market David McWilliams in today's Irish Times: 'Stocks in the big five tech companies have slumped. It was only a matter of time' (behind a paywall) Trillion-dollar valuations represented an overshoot of the price positive-feedback mechanism.

As I've pointed again and again on these threads and will continue to point out, the 1999-2001 crash was not a sell-off of worthless companies only. I could've used the 1960s and 70s, when the software industry began, to make the same point. Okay so these companies crashed because they were...

I've recently come across this interesting interview, which fits in nicely with the discussion. Fred Hickey is a technologist who runs a tech investing newsletter which he started in 1987. Worth reading the whole thing.

Interesting article. This report says that Renishaw was trading at a trailing P/E of 29.5x. Too much helium. In the end, Apple and Tesla and your other picks could suffer severe price declines on the same day. If that happens your Tesla short position could act as an inadvertent hedge against...

But I didn't ask about their motives. I asked about their reasoning. There are also hedge fund providers, like Richard Bernstein, who advise holding on to tech stocks. He might be badly-motivated too. In fairness I did get answers of a kind from Steven and Jim. But all stock-picking involves a...

Yeah most of the dot-com stuff was rubbish. Beanie babies, pet-food, e-Toys etc. But investors at the time couldn't distinguish between fool's gold and real gold, and worthwhile companies (what few there were) suffered price declines as severe as the junk. There was no careful sifting of the...

Thanks joe. If the long-terms trends were just to these companies the prices would rise gradually over decades, with modest losses and re-gains, instead of spiking and crashing every ten years.

Yes, but the distinction between RBS's position in 2016 and Morgan Stanley's now is that the latter are not talking about fleeing the equities markets - they're deserting certain sectors (tech, consumer) in favour of other sectors (energy, utilities, financials) within the markets. It's a...

An intriguing article which appeared in today's Business Insider: MORGAN STANLEY: The stock market has reached a 'tipping point' - and the market's most beloved companies could be hit hardest Note: This is the Morgan Stanley equities team, which AFAIK invest on behalf of the company. Morgan...