So where are we with Bitcoin after 4 months of discussion?

The problem with the detractors of bitcoin in these discussions as I see it, is the continous use of misinformation, misrepresentation of other posters comments to try fudge the topic being discussed.

Just some obs;

1. I have read fpalbs Key Post on bitcoin and nowhere does it say that bitcoin is worth $20,000 as implied in the OP of this topic which purports to summarize previous discussions.

2. There is a difference between something in a bubble and something having zero value. The two are not always the same.

3. Intrinsic value. The arguement is pushed that bitcoin has no intrinsic value. It appears that this is based on it not having EPS or p/e ratios? Yet, simultaneously im told, an apple has instrinic value. I agree, the intrinsic value of an apple is its use for providing sustenance as a food source. But thats it, that is its intrinsic value. We can try monetize that intrinsic value, but how that is done is subjective and the monetary price calculated is also subjective.
Bitcoins intrinsic value is its use to hold and transfer money outside of the centralised monetary system on a trustless blockchain. Thats it, that is its intrinsic value. We can try all sorts of ways to put a monetary value, and consider all sorts of factors to do so, but all of that is wholly subjective.
4. Ive read Krugmans 'bitcoin is evil' piece, and while he is highly skeptical of its use, to the point of being almost dismissive, nowhere does he state that it has zero value.
5. There is a strange tendency for the ABC's to constantly refer to the economists for guidance and opinion on bitcoin. Fair enough, but economists are generally as clueless about the future as anyone else (this is evident when you listen to various economics and all have different outlooks about the economy - they cant all be right?).
Economists are best placed to analyze after the fact information. The blockchain is technological, bitcoin is a manifestation from that technology.
Why are economists regarded so highly here?
 
TheBigShort said:
The problem with the detractors of bitcoin in these discussions as I see it, is the continous use of misinformation, misrepresentation of other posters comments to try fudge the topic being discussed.
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Aontaím go hiomlán

TheBigShort said:
....economists are generally as clueless about the future as anyone else
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How dare you! The bloody cheek of you insulting my noble profession! ;)
 
TheBigShort said:
The problem with the detractors of bitcoin in these discussions as I see it, is the continous use of misinformation, misrepresentation of other posters comments to try fudge the topic being discussed.
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I don't think that you will find one materially inaccurate statement from the ABCs which is misleading.

For example, I said "Blockchain is wonderful...therefore BTC is worth $20,000 per coin."

This is a fair summary of the attribution of value to BTC which actually derives from the blockchain. It is a summary post.

The problem Shortie is that you are trying to find small "errors" in what the ABCs are saying and therefore you miss the main point.

No one has yet shown why Bitcoin has any value whatsoever.
The best the ABCs can come up with is that it is "subjective".

The purpose of this discussion is not to win an argument.

The purpose is to help those of you who own Bitcoin to realise how foolish it is and to help you to retain your profits.

It is also to stop people losing money through participating in the Bitcoin mania.

The ABCs make all sorts of irrelevant arguments - straw men arguments. You might well win them. But that is not the point.

The point is that Bitcoin has no value. Nothing you or anyone else has said has suggested why it might have a value.

In time, you will come to realise this. I genuinely hope that you will recognise the mania for what it is before it's too late.

We are telling you now during the bubble that this is a bubble. That is useful. You should listen.

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
No one has yet shown why Bitcoin has any value whatsoever.
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In your opinion.
In my opinion fpalbs posts and the posts of others both here and elsewhere explaining the tech side of all this, coupled with my own views of the monetary system and geopolitical affairs, plus an understanding of the potential benefits and advantages of a decentralised trustless currency as I see it, all add up to value to me.
Not to you, but to me. And that is what I am trying to help you with. That because you see no value in it, doesnt mean it doesnt hold value for others.

Brendan Burgess said:
The purpose is to help those of you who own Bitcoin to realise how foolish it is and to help you to retain your profits.
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How do you think you are going with that?

Brendan Burgess said:
It is also to stop people losing money through participating in the Bitcoin mania
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This is wholly disingenuous. You have a vested interest in trying to persuade people to sell.

Brendan Burgess said:
The point is that Bitcoin has no value. Nothing you or anyone else has said has suggested why it might have a value.
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Nothing that I or anyone else has said has suggested to you why it might have value.
 
elacsaplau said:
I'd be very interested to understand when BTC attained bubble price levels.
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This is not an easy question to answer. It wasn't on the 5th March 2016.

Bitcoin is worth nothing.

So when people were giving away a pizza for 10 Bitcoins, Bitcoin was then overvalued.

But at $1 or $10, it didn't really matter.

It's clearly a bubble now. It was always overvalued. But it's a grey area between overvaluation and a bubble.

Brendan
 
TheBigShort said:
This is wholly disingenuous. You have a vested interest in trying to persuade people to sell.
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Not at all.

Bitcoin is worth nothing.

As someone who has spreadbet on Betcoin to fall, I do want it to fall to zero ASAP.

I think that the discussion on Askaboutmoney will help a few people, but it won't affect the price of Bitcoin.

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Bitcoin is worth nothing.
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You keep repeating something that is factually incorrect.

What would you do if someone gave you 1,000 Bitcoin? I'm guessing you'd sell them pretty quickly. Now, if that happened, would you still think they are worth nothing and have no value? You seem completely blind to this, which I find more than a little baffling. Repeating "Bitcoin has no value" will not make it true, though maybe you're trying to convince yourself by repitition?

Mind you, I guess like a broken clock that's right twice a day you may well be right at some point in the future: that time may be tomorrow, next month, next year or never. Pretty much the same can be said about any currency.
 
newtothis said:
What would you do if someone gave you 1,000 Bitcoin? I'm guessing you'd sell them pretty quickly.
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Of course I would sell them immediately. They are worth nothing. But the price is $7,700. I have yesterday's Irish Times here. It's worth nothing. But if someone wants to give me $7,700 for it, then I will sell it to them. If they can find a "greater fool" to pay them $50,000 for yesterday's Irish Times at the end of the year, I won't begrudge them.

I do appreciate that telling creationists that they are wrong won't change their belief that the World was created by God 7,000 years ago. Telling Flat Earth theorists that they are wrong won't change their mind. I think that Bitcoin should be a little bit different. It's just a financial decision. I know that it's become a matter of faith to you. But I do expect that some of you will realise that the weight of evidence is just so overwhelmingly against your belief that you will either change them or at least take some of your profits, just in case those of us who tell you it's worth nothing might be right.

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
It is also to stop people losing money through participating in the Bitcoin mania.
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You are being disingenuous once more. You know I have made money on bitcoin, and others too.
If anyone had followed your advice on bitcoin from the get-go, that advice would have cost them.

Brendan Burgess said:
As someone who has spreadbet on Betcoin to fall, I dot want it to fall to zero ASAP
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Interestingly you deem it ok for yourself to risk money but not others, isnt that a tad patronising and hypocritical?

Your dogged insistance that bitcoin is worthless and will return to zero is noted. But its your revelations of your spread bet strategy and considerations that I find most intriguing.
You have a stop-loss at circa €34k and an initial cash-out strategy at €3k. Indicating a realisation at both ends of the bet you could get this wrong.
Not only that, but perhaps with a little bit more than hindsight at play, you amazingly sensed that $20,000 would be the peak of its run and you considered cashing out "as it fell to $6,000", which transpired to be the bottom of its bear-run.
Unfortuately you dont appear to have profited from these insights, which may diminish the value of your other insights somewhat.
 
TheBigShort said:
Not only that, but perhaps with a little bit more than hindsight at play, you amazingly sensed that $20,000 would be the peak of its run and you considered cashing out "as it fell to $6,000", which transpired to be the bottom of its bear-run.
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Hi Shortie

Have I not explained this to you before?

I will try again.

It's not possible to forecast the temporary movements of an irrationally priced thing such as Bitcoin. The madness of crowds is unpredictable.

So I did not identify the top or the bottom at the time.

I started the Alternative Investments Forum and wrote this
Bitcoin is a clearly identifiable economic bubble
when Bitcoin was about $8,700 if I am reading the charts correctly.

I have said elsewhere, that had I paid attention to Bitcoin when it was $100 and if I had been able to short it, I would have done so. I would have had a stop loss at probably around $200, so I would have lost my bet.

The first post that I wrote about betting on it falling is December 12th when it was about $17,000. It took me another few weeks to find spread betting, find out how it works, and get the cash together. By that time it had fallen to $14,500.

So the timing of my bet has been good but not optimal. I have also been lucky so far. I could well have short sold at $100.

But this is so far. I have not won my bet until the money is in the bank. While I am up at the moment, I am very risk conscious and I know that it could still rise to $34,500 and I would lose my bet.

In early February, there was a sharp fall over about the course of a week. Of course anyone who had bet on it falling would consider cashing out. In particular, I remember having lunch with a friend of mine when it was around $6,000 and he suggested I should close out. He has reminded me of this recently. There is nothing magic about that.

If I had sold out at $6,000 I would have considered myself lucky when it rose again to $12,000. But when it later falls to $3,000 I would regret it.

Let me repeat in case you miss the key point: I can't predict the short term movements of Bitcoin or any other irrationally priced item.

I can tell you that it will eventually fall to zero, but I don't know when.As you will see from the following record, I am betting on it falling below $5,000 by the end of the year, but I accept that I may lose this bet.

Just for the record, here are my bets on Bitcoin

1) Sold short when it was $14,500 with a stop loss at $34,500 (For clarity, the actual stop loss is $24,500 as that was the maximum allowed by IG Index. I will reset it higher if Bitcoin rises above $14,500)
2) A small bet on Betfair in January at about 15/1 if I recall correctly for it to fall below $5,000 by end of January. Bet lost.
3) Various bets on Betfair for it to be below $5,000 by the end of 2018. Average odds 1.2/1. I could cash out this at a small profit now.
4) A few bets with Paddy Power for it to be below $15,000 at the end of the year
5) I see that I placed two bets of €5 each on Betfair on 4th January. Both at 4/1. One that it would be below $5,000. The other that it would be above $50,000. I don't know if the > $50,000 bet was an error or if it was related to this thread.

I also considered other bets e.g. that Bitcoin would fall below $5,000 during 2018. The odds were too short though and I judged the end of year odds better.

So let me repeat, in case you missed the bit in bold above. I can't predict the short term movements of Bitcoin.

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Of course I would sell them immediately. They are worth nothing. But the price is $7,700. I have yesterday's Irish Times here. It's worth nothing. But if someone wants to give me $7,700 for it, then I will sell it to them.
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Not true! You've just proved it's worth $7,000 to that person. If you have a whole collection of people who think the same (i.e. an open trading market, as in that for Bitcoin) and the market price is $7,000, then it's worth $7,000 by definition. If you want to believe it's worth nothing, that's fine - it's just your opinion. The facts speak differently. It's exactly like if you want to believe the earth is flat, then that's fine - it's what you believe, but the provable fact is that it's not.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
So let me repeat, in case you missed the bit in bold above. I can't predict the short term movements of Bitcoin.
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But if someone gave you 1,000 bitcoin you would sell immediately because they are 'worth nothing'.

You wouldnt consider holding onto any even though you admit its price could rise?

Brendan Burgess said:
2) A small bet on Betfair in January at about 15/1 if I recall correctly for it to fall below $5,000 by end of January. Bet lost.
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The way im reading all of this is that you are the one losing money on bitcoin.
I do hope you take your own advice and cash out now.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Let me repeat in case you miss the key point: I can't predict the short term movements of Bitcoin or any other irrationally priced item.
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I agree, no-one can. But we can all take a guess, have a hunch, cant we? Sometimes those guesses, hunches, turn out to be spot on or very close. Most often they are not.

In terms of your guesses, hunches etc with bitcoin, you were amazingly close to sensing its peak at $20,000 and so close to its bottom when considering cashing out at $6,000.
I would have said this is amazing foresight, had it not been for the fact that you have shared this in hindsight.

So, perhaps to be clear, bitcoin price trajectory is currently heading south. Do you have a sense of what price you might cash out at now? Are you considering any other price level at this point?
 
TheBigShort said:
I would have said this is amazing foresight, had it not been for the fact that you have shared this in hindsight.
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Shortie

Did you read the post? I am telling you with hindsight that I would have sensed a peak and bet on it at $100. I am telling you that from the time I first said it was a bubble, it rose more than 100%. I am not claiming any insight into its short term movements at all.

TheBigShort said:
Do you have a sense of what price you might cash out at now? Are you considering any other price level at this point?
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Check out this thread
When to close out my short position on Bitcoin?

Brendan
 
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