Effects of N.Korea activities on market

Is it time to get cautious again. Are the markets going to crumble with the nuclear uncertainty? Is it time to cash in investments & stash it safely in the Post Office. While I don't mind the up & down day to day activity of the markets, this nuclear stuff sounds scary. Any thoughts, comments or suggestions. Thanks Laoisa

What's your time horizon?

Laoisa said:

stash it safely in the Post Office.

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I am not sure that the Post Office will be safe in the event of a large scale nuclear war.

Even if the Irish state remains solvent and able to borrow even more money than we are doing at present during an economic boom, inflation may well wipe out savings.

There simply is no such thing as a risk-free investment.

Brendan

if anyone drops a nuke , the stock market will probably drop to levels not seen in twenty years , if it doesnt , it will have no effect

all or nothing IMO

fat boy knows if he did anything , its game over for him , whatever about the rest of us

Thanks for your responses, looks like there is no longer a safe haven. It seems like it's getting more difficult to protect capital. Taking risks & waiting to see how things pan out was easier when I was younger. These days I'm trying to protect what I have for my dotage & droolage, as only God knows what fair deal will look like in a few years.

I feel like it's inevitable we wake up some morning and North Korea has landed a missile in Japan or South Korea. More likely by accident due to a disintegration.

Markets will then gap like Brexit as we await a Trump response. Trump is the unknown here.

A game of chicken played by two cocks.

Note: you worry about NK but it is Trump's actions/words that are escalating the issue. He is also trying to break the Iranian agreement, kicking Russia out of their diplomatic territory on US soil, threatening China with trade wars, trying to bully South Korea & Japan on trade, breaking NAFTA, and isolating immigrants on DACA. Trump has been pretty busy the last week.

Guys

Please read the thread title. This is about investments. It is not a Letting Off Steam thread about Trump and Korea.

Feel free to start a thread on that in the Depths.

Any posts which are not about investments and investment risk will be deleted.

Brendan

Stock market recovered very robustly today, especially emerging markets

settlement said:

Stock market recovered very robustly today, especially emerging markets

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NK are as likely to launch an ICBM tonight or later in the week after UN sanctions later tonight.

I would fit the narrative as follows, NK hold off, Irma less damaging than feared (insurer's ramped & the possibility of them having to liquidate some equity positions to fund bill receded), FED very dovish talk, debt ceiling deal. Lot of bullishness there.

The FT had an interesting article on this at the weekend

Should markets worry about North Korea?



Stocks have long dealt with secondary conflict. None caused huge downturns. Not the Spanish Civil War of 1936, Russia’s A-bomb test in 1949 nor the Six Day War in the Middle East in 1967. Stocks rose through both Iraq Wars, Israel’s 2006 Hizbollah spat, the 1990s’ Balkan War and many others.

Only world wars ever started bear markets. In 1938, tensions leading up to the second world war cut short a rebound from a credit crisis. Stocks sank until 1942. The first world war was similarly crushing. But that’s it. Tragic as wars of any size are, regional conflict usually affects too little of the world economy to disrupt commerce globally.

I am not sure. The scale of this could be huge. It could also trigger a World War.

In reality, no one knows the impact of a nuclear war.

Brendan

looks like the chinese turning off the financial taps to north korea, the chinese central bank has ordered chinese banks to stop dealing with north korea. Therefore it is finance that they are using to reign in the north koreans.

Be interesting to see how NK responds to todays actions. Do they back down due to China or go it alone and more volatile.

Could be a major win for Trump if they back down, over China.

Can't get over the low volatility in the markets at present. Keep an eye on events in Spain next week.

Its had very little effect on markets so far probably because they think its all just talk. Its actually benefitted me in that oil and commodities are up alot although there are other factors at play here also. Maybe all the bellicose language is a product of the crude age we live in where people use crude language all the time. During WW2 even Hitler and Stalin never used this crude talk , Hitler never threatened to destroy Poland even though he did just that, he needed a diplomatic cover. Maybe this language is a way for them (trump and kim) to let off steam, please the masses, but at the end of the not do very much.

if a nuclear war kicked off , would any of us really care about our portfolios ?, id have other concerns personally , hard to get tradesmen these days and the foundations of the fallout shelter are not even complete