"If crypto is not the answer to our money problems, what is?" Good FT article

I've yet to come across a single person that can explain its value in simple terms

There is no legitimate use case for bitcoin as it is not very efficient as a means of payment and displays such huge volatility.

Bitcoin's main use case is for illegal, cross-border transactions at wholesale level. The price of bitcoin is hugely volatile but sending large amounts of notes around in cash also has a lot of risk. Illegal use case is why I think Bitcoin value will ever go to zero. It is indeed finite in nature and has the advantage of being the first one.

I don't rule out a future state of the world where crypto exchanges become illegal everywhere by way of international agreement either. Either way I think the future use case for bitcoin is by criminals.
 
which of the bitcoin users here do you think are using it for this purpose?
Probably none. I am talking about use case as a means of payment.

I've said this before. I lead a boring life and my financial transactions are extremely legal and dull. There is absolutely no reason for me to use bitcoin as a means of payment for anything at all.

As an asset class it produces no income and has extreme volatility so is of no interest to me.
 
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FTX Crypto Exchange is on the brink of collapse with the next to impossible task of finding $8 billion in real money to fill their liquidity gap. Sequoia Capital have said they are marking down their more than $200 million investment in the exchange to zero... at least with Tulips you could get a nice garden...
 
As an asset class it produces no income and has extreme volatility so is of no interest to me.
It's the not understanding it bit that gets me. I see no reason for the increase in value, other than low returns in real assets and excess cash, and no reason for the decline other than a increase in interest rates and a reduction in cash (QE to QT). That tells me that it's a reaction, a bubble.

I could of course be completely wrong but the global value of Crypto currencies has declined by two thirds in less than a year.
 
FTX can fail, and Sequoia can lose their investment. But my self-custodied bitcoin is not at risk from that, nor will it be diluted either to bail them out.

Regulation is not a silver bullet to prevent failure or even fraud in companies as Irish people should know well by now, we like having the choice to isolate ourselves completely from the counter-party risk of companies.
 
FTX can fail, and Sequoia can lose their investment. But my self-custodied bitcoin is not at risk from that, nor will it be diluted either to bail them out.
You should tell https://time.com/6232011/binance-ftx-collapse-crypto/ (Time Magazine) and the FT. They are under the impression that there will be a broader sectoral impact.
 
And your point is that that last woman could be on her feet until -> ∞ or maybe some time before -> ∞
Would you be confident enough to take a stab at the following:
BTC will never see
A. $20k ever again.
B. $30k ever again.
C. $50k ever again.

I mean if you're using the phrase 'normal service' then my read on that is that you don't think it can hit those numbers, right?
A. 50%
B. 75%
C. 95%
But a few things I can assert won't happen.
It will not be the next World reserve currency as per $95bn man.
It will not achieve 15% penetration of World medium of exchange as per John Kelleher of Investopedia. In fact it will NEVER have any meaningful role as a MOE.
It will not attain a value of $500k as per same JK.

It will lose all aspirations to be digital gold - that has probably happened already.

I think it will retain some allure as a speculator bauble and as rosary beads for a cult following and that could spell a long but rather futile lifespan for Satoshi's experiment.
 
You should tell https://time.com/6232011/binance-ftx-collapse-crypto/ (Time Magazine) and the FT. They are under the impression that there will be a broader sectoral impact.
There may well be a sectoral impact, and maybe other investors and companies are somehow related to FTX, but I have no counter-party risk to *any* company, and bitcoin itself has no systemic dependence on any company either.
Also of course, bad sentiment, fear and forced selling are all a downward pressure on the (short term) price.
 
A. 50%
B. 75%
C. 95%
Good to know. I won't comment on the rest of it - as those views you've expressed previously and have been well and truly thrashed out.


Funny seeing all the crypto bros running around crying out where were the regulators :)
Funny how? Because of an assumption you've made? You've identified centralized aspects re. crypto - and when it comes to those centralized parts, the sector has been trying to get regulatory clarity for a number of years already. Anyone that's spent more than 5 minutes researching activity in that respect over the past couple of years knows that.

This is an accurate take on the current scenario. As is this. SBFs shenanigans is truly spectacular but in no way is all of this a clean game. From the Ripple case, to the lack of approval of an ETF (causing the grayscale fund to exist in the way that it does (not as an etf) - and the issues with that leading to AC3 blowing up earlier this year), to the double speak (Gensler saying that they'll talk to anyone but refusing to talk to Armstrong/Coinbase - then meeting with SBF because of the fat wads of cash which he was giving to the Demo's (who Gensler is aligned with), Gensler and his counterpart in the CFDC openly fighting for regulatory control over crypto (at the expense of actually getting the job done).

The assertion seems to be that nobody in the space has wanted regulation until now. That's simply untrue and the evidence is there in spades to prove it. When it comes to the decentralized aspects, those working on that tech are also looking for regulation - as there are actions that can be taken around the edges that can hold back the development of that innovation.

Of course there are many who would prefer that such systems are developed to a point where they're robust enough not to be impacted by anything a regulator or government might do. I'd sooner prefer that myself - but most recognize that it's not that simple (for the next few years at least). With that, there's been an ongoing fight for A. regulatory clarity and B. good regulation that doesn't stymie the innovation.

On that second point, I remember a previous discussion here a couple of years back where someone was trying to corral me into saying regulation is either good or bad - either you're on board with it or you're not. That could never be the case. There are plenty of examples (of progressive and horrendous regulation) and we have one with this crap storm right now.

SBF was throwing big money to the Democrats over the course of the past year or so. It's unethical but it's how everything is done in the US. If that was simply to draw attention to a need for sensible regulation, fine. The issue is described in Tom Emmer's tweet that I linked to above (i.e. he wanted it tailor made to exclude others - and that's what set off the chain of events in recent days as his main competitor responded).
 
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My problem with Crypto is that I don't really understand it, in that I don't get what its intrinsic value is and I don't think the price Bitcoin trades at is a reflection of any intrinsic value, rather it is a reflection of a speculative bubble as a result of copious amounts of cheap money in a low interest rate environment looking for a return.
That's not to say that is doesn't have an intrinsic value, I just have no idea what it is and why it should have it and I don't invest in things I don't understand.

Maybe it's an age thing, but I agree. I had to move my Ulster Bank account recently and I set-up a Revolut account in a few minutes. It has great functionality (virtual debit card, vaults for saving, and the ability to transfer funds to contacts immediately). Why would I bother with Bitcoin for normal transactions? Maybe, for an edge case, where someone is living under a despot regime they could get their money out of the country with Bitcoin, but for the rest of us? I just don't see where this update will come from. If it was any good, adoption rates would be higher - Revolut a case in point.
 
Maybe, for an edge case, where someone is living under a despot regime they could get their money out of the country with Bitcoin,
Or if you were engaged in criminal activity at a big scale and wanted to receive or make a payment. You still face money-laundering controls at the point where you want to transfer it back to fiat currency.

but for the rest of us?
Zero legitimate use case. The price is volatile and retail options for payments are far simpler.
 
If it was any good, adoption rates would be higher - Revolut a case in point.
From a quick search Revolut had 15 million users as of last year. Bitcoin likely has more users than that.

I'm a user of both Bitcoin and Revolut, my use-case for each is not the same. As a data point to emphasise this - around 65% of all bitcoin has not been involved in any transaction in over a year.
 
Once again you're missing my point, 65% of all bitcoin has not been involved in any transaction in over a year, but it's still serving a purpose.

I use my bitcoin every day as a store of value.
 
Once again you're missing my point, 65% of all bitcoin has not been involved in any transaction in over a year, but it's still serving a purpose.
If 65% is not being used doesn't that tell you that it's being held for speculative purposes?
 
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