Bitcoin in a hyperbolic bubble

Status
Not open for further replies.
That's my stance also. I think the concept of bitcoin is brilliant. Private money whose value, issuance, etc is not determined by a centralised authority of bankers who decide how much, when, where and what the rules are, and when those rules are applicable or not applicable, when those rules can be changed or when they cannot be changed.

Don't get me wrong, such a system can have enormous benefits. But having the option to step outside that system is a brilliant concept. The option to dissent is critical for the development and advancement of humankind.



CBDC or regular cash cannot be #betterbitcoin.

Bitcoin is controlled by a handful of people. It is an open source piece of computer code. It is therefore possible that at some point in future the developers can decide to change the amount of coins issued.

Bitcoin is not exempt from human interventions and ideology just like real money. Hence why we've seen disagreements and hard forks (,Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash etc). These are all forks of the original bitcoin led by early adopters / developers of bitcoin.
 
Isn’t that stance a bit close minded, ironic from a “community” imploring people to be open minded? Sort of like the thing that happens in a bubble.

The ultimate leader may not even be widely known or created yet.
If you'd like to discuss another crypto/coin/Blockchain project I'd imagine you can open up another thread. If it's a project you think that challenges or has the potential to challenge bitcoin, by all means introduce it to the discussion.
 
It is therefore possible that at some point in future the developers can decide to change the amount of coins issued.

That's not my understanding, and you are the first person I have heard to say that.
I think its theoretically possible to change the amount of coins issued, but as i understand it is near impossible in reality.
If it were a viable option to change the amount to be issued its standing would be shot to pieces in an instant and it would be end of bitcoin.

Bitcoin is not exempt from human interventions and ideology just like real money. Hence why we've seen disagreements and hard forks (,Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash etc). These are all forks of the original bitcoin led by early adopters / developers of bitcoin.

I get all that, but none of that is changing bitcoin. It's just taking bitcoin and trying to create #betterbitcoin with little success.
It doesn't actually change bitcoin itself.
 

US Treasury wants cryptocurrency transfers over $10,000 to be reported to the IRS​


"The agency says cryptocurrency ‘facilitates illegal activity broadly including tax evasion"
“Cryptocurrency already poses a significant detection problem by facilitating illegal activity broadly including tax evasion,”


Like I said.......the powers that be, agree with me......who.....just the US Treasury.....i.e. the White House......the CCP & China's leadership......next move is European regulatory authorities / commission to do something BTC hostile in response to Colonial/Ireland bitcoin denominated attack.......Europe is a little slower to get things done my guess is next week or week after something drops.......as I've said previously this all occurring a couple of weeks after Colonial....weird, so weird......
Thoughts on this @tecate @WolfeTone

One of these everyday at this stage - it’s as if the bear has been awoken
 
One of these everyday at this stage - it’s as if the bear has been awoken

No issue with that. It suggests authorities are wanting/aiming to bring the crypto sector into compliance. This is a good thing imo.
I have no issue with being tax compliant.

It is far cry from 'crushing' bitcoin.
 
Bitcoin is controlled by a handful of people. It is an open source piece of computer code. It is therefore possible that at some point in future the developers can decide to change the amount of coins issued.
This is flat out wrong. The code is public, open source and licensed in a way that anyone is free to change it and redistribute it. This means anyone can make *their own* changes to the code, they can decide to run the code with those changes and they can release it for other people to run.

However, no one can force anyone to run any particular code changes. The 'official' bitcoin code repository and the set of core developers who work on it have no actual power to compel people to run their code. Users (meaning users, miners, nodes and exchanges etc) run their code by choice not because they're forced to.

If the current core developers decided to change the code in a way that the users did not like, such as increasing the coin issuance, the users would react by not running code that included that change.

Bitcoin is not exempt from human interventions and ideology just like real money. Hence why we've seen disagreements and hard forks (,Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash etc). These are all forks of the original bitcoin led by early adopters / developers of bitcoin.
There are two kind of forks here.

Litcoin was based on a copy of the bitcoin code, but did not fork the bitcoin blockchain - LItecoin has a completely new blockchain separate from Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Cash is both a fork of the code and the blockchain. This is what happens when everyone doesn't agree on code changes. If the core developers really controlled the code the fork would not be possible - everyone would have been forced to run a singular bitcoin. Obviously it would be better for everyone if there was consensus among everyone about what code changes were best and forks never happened, but it is critical that forking is always an option - it's required to keep the devs honest.
 
Following on from that

Rugby Union is bitcoin core, Rugby League is bitcoin cash. American Football is Litecoin.

You can say the RFU control rubgy, but they cannot determine how you play with your friends in the park. They cannot stop someone else from creating a fork of Rubgy with different rules - they can only say that if you do so you will no longer be compatible with rugby union.
 
Last edited:
Following on from that

Rugby Union is bitcoin core, Rugby League is bitcoin cash. American Football is Litecoin.

You can say the RFU control rubgy, but they cannot determine how you play with your friends in the park. They cannot stop someone else from creating a fork of Rubgy with different rules - they can only say that if you do so you will no longer be compatible with rugby union.
Interesting analogy. RFU can of course change the number of points for a try, for example.
Is it possible for the number of bitcoins to be increased? My read of what you are saying is that it is possible but would not be in the overall interests of the "community" or network or whatever it is called, and therefore would be rejected by said network.
 
Interesting analogy. RFU can of course change the number of points for a try, for example.
Only for those who agree to 'run their code'. You can play with your friends and choose as many points as you like for a try. Rugby League can decide on a different number of points.

But ultimately if the RFU decided to make the ball round, or some other decision which the vast majority of users did not like, the following things may happen:
* users agree even though they don't like it
* users disagree and stop attending games entirely
* users disagree and switch to attending rugby league games or an entirely new rugby association and league is started (as happened with Rubgy League)
* users disagree and the RFU staff get replaced due to revolts from the whole ecosystem - fans, players, team owners etc.

My point is that the power the RFU has is at the discretion of the users.

Look at the football super league for an example of how the owners don't have the power that some would say they do. The power lies with the economic majority.
 
Look at the football super league for an example of how the owners don't have the power that some would say they do. The power lies with the economic majority.

Yes, and to further emphasis the power of the community (or the disempowerment of any one central authority), say in a parallel universe, it was the football supporters marching on the stadiums across Europe demanding the initiation of the Super League as proposed.
This would take a gargantuan effort that in theory was possible but realistically next to zero ever happening.
 
I would love to have seen what would have happened if the Super League went ahead. I wonder if the fans and existing clubs could have fought it enough to make it fail.
 
Like I said.......the powers that be, agree with me......who.....just the US Treasury.....i.e. the White House......the CCP & China's leadership......next move is European regulatory authorities / commission to do something BTC hostile in response to Colonial/Ireland bitcoin denominated attack.......Europe is a little slower to get things done my guess is next week or week after something drops.......as I've said previously this all occurring a couple of weeks after Colonial....weird, so weird.....
Thoughts on this @tecate @WolfeTone

One of these everyday at this stage - it’s as if the bear has been awoken
My thoughts on this remain unchanged. Lets recap on what my thoughts were....i.e. that over the course of the next few years there will be plenty of twists and turns with regard to regulation. On the bits you put in supersize font, we've covered that already. Everyone acknowledges that inherent in the decentralised nature of bitcoin is the ability to move funds around more freely. This is what we're here for - and the facility can be used for good and for bad. Therefore, the guy that wrote the report isn't necessarily wrong. In the same way as he wouldn't be wrong in saying cars facilitate bank robbers to execute a bank robbery. The difference is that your claim is that there isn't sufficient upside with bitcoin/crypto for society and government to tolerate it. I vehemently disagree - so rather than go round in circles, we'll have to accept that disagreement and see how things develop.
The measure you identify suggests that Uncle Sam wants his share of the $ (tax). Surprise surprise. This is what regulation will focus on - governments making sure they get their cut. Not an outright ban. Flipping back to the ransomware stuff, you seem to be fixated on that for some reason. I'll grant you that the Colonial affair was infrastructural so there's that. As regards the HSE, that's a complete nothing burger. In as much as you want an outright ban on crypto on the back of that alone - today - when I think of this - I would want people to realise where the issue lies and go after that i.e. an organisation that is totally mismanaged and incompetent.
You believe that a couple of measures are a knee jerk response to that. That's not an opinion I share. The news out of China was a reiteration of measures that were in place a couple of years ago already. And this coming out of the US - is a small piece in a regulatory jigsaw that is being put together. Regulation didn't become a theme because of ransomware. If you don't believe me, then do an advanced google search on "regulation" + "crypto" OR "bitcoin" and only include results to a timeframe before these two ransomware attacks. I can assure you there's been all sorts of noise in that regard. It's an ongoing consideration - as it always is when it comes to innovation which moves much faster than regulators.

Isn’t that stance a bit close minded, ironic from a “community” imploring people to be open minded?
I'm having difficulty in understanding what your grievance is here. You bemoaned the fact that a thread that specifically discusses bitcoin (see thread title) specifically discusses bitcoin? Beyond that, I suggested that if it was a project related to a money or store of value use case, have at it - introduce it to the discussion.
Explain to me how that is close minded???


presidentttt said:
The ultimate leader may not even be widely known or created yet.
I don't know at what point you started to follow these discussions but it's something that has been considered many times - and as recently as the last few days. If you are suggesting that bitcoin may be usurped, then my position (which I've stated a gazillion times over the course of 4 years here) is that yes it could. I'm open to the potential of bitcoin failing on the basis of that and other rationale.
On the flipside, whenever anyone has suggested that bitcoin could be upended by another project, naturally enough I ask by what project and we get crickets. I also liken it to Facebook/Google/Twitter, etc. they can all be upended too - but it will have to be by something that is 10x better.

This is flat out wrong. The code is public, open source and licensed in a way that anyone is free to change it and redistribute it. This means anyone can make *their own* changes to the code, they can decide to run the code with those changes and they can release it for other people to run.
Many misunderstand the dynamic with regard to the various stakeholder groups relative to bitcoin. In the blocksize war, miners tried to impose their will over and above other stakeholder groups. Users disagreed and on that basis, miners never got their way. This is something which is also misunderstood when the degree of decentralisation (or otherwise) of bitcoin mining is considered.
China-based miners want to take control of the network? Firstly, it remains to be seen that they can be rounded up so easily but lets assume that they can. Billions are spent on that attack and the net result is that users fork the network away. Would there have been disruption to the network? Definitely. Would bitcoin have been taken out as a consequence? No way - and in fact, the project would end up being much stronger for the experience. In which case, why would anyone go there in the first instance and be shown up as idiots (not to mention all the time, money and resources expended).
The same applies re. any perceived belief that a group of developers have control of the project. I can't imagine a scenario where anyone would ever dare touch the 21 million BTC hardcap. Doing so is akin to committing suicide. But even in some bizarre twist where that somehow plays out, users can fork away. It's the peoples network - not the miners or that of an elite band of developers, etc.
 
Last edited:
@letitroll : So you found a kindred spirit. That doesn't surprise me in the least. Its the very same as the wayward energy debate and other aspects of discussion on crypto and bitcoin. If someone approaches the debate with the central premise at the outset that they see no value in it - then of course they will come to these wayward conclusions. This is an example of a guy who holds exactly the same opinion on the subject as your good self - but no more than that.

Having said that, he already confirmed that there are other ways - through gift cards etc. So this will go on regardless of whether bitcoin exists or not. Even if there is NO means for them to extort $, it will still happen. As we all well know, hackers hack for kicks, for the challenge, for the bragging rights. Just in case you're thinking that's bs - are you telling me that prior to the first crypto-based ransomware attack, there was no such thing as hacking or rasomware?

Lastly, let me humour you for a second and run with the notion that, yeah you're right - it's all bitcoin's fault. And lets say the G7 ban it. What next? You will NEVER get all of the 110 + jurisdictions in the world to ban bitcoin. What you might do is drive it further into this use case. And at that point, I would wager that its even less likely that the perpetrators are apprehended in such instances.

So....in that kneejerk response, you will have killed off the wave of innovation that's coming with bitcoin and decentralised crypto (and whilst you've dismissed that in the case of bitcoin, I'd imagine you haven't even begun to think it through for the raft of other decentralised crypto projects that are ongoing for totally different use cases (but who's tokens still have value and could be utilised as a medium for such attacks). You'll kill it off for the countries that enforce such a ban but not for those that don't. That's why I said that I really doubt that a complete ban is coming.

I do believe that there will be back and forth with regulation - some of it will be progressive and some of it will be stone age - and they will flip n flop as they don't know how to deal with it (and that's been the experience up until now as they have been learning that they can't deal with it as easily as you're thinking).

For what it's worth, here's an interview with Ross Stevens of NYDIG - which may provide you with an idea of how this whole thing is likely to unfold as we move forward.
 
Last edited:
Crypto regulation

Here is another article that mentions all the relevant regulatory authorities . While the dangers of illicit activities are mentioned the tone is of regulating, not banning.
 
You've forgotten my equation already....the authorities havent:

the expected value/return of a crime is a function of the probability of escape multiplied by the nominal $ value of the crime lets call it maybe something like this:

$ of Crime ($C) x Probability of Escape (PoE) = Expected Value of Crime (EVC)

Bitcoin/Crpyto increases the PoE.....it therefore increases EVC.....which in turn increases crime itself.....its been most notable in the ransomware segment.........indeed the tweet I linked to spoke about an intentionally randomized wallet Tornado that was made to hide identity perfectly

@tecate @WolfeTone - can I get you both on the record on this one on a very simple point...........

(1) Is your supposition that Bitcoin/Crypto has ZERO incremental benefit in the masking of identify, as compared to cash/bank wires in the pursuit of crimes? Please answer.
 
You've forgotten my equation already....the authorities havent:
You mentioned your 'formula'. But you're formula is meaningless. You have zero in the benefits column when it comes to decentralised crypto (your buddy mentioned Ethereum by the way - not btc - to my point in my last post). That's wayward (and we'll continue to disagree until the whole thing unfolds). Secondly, you never addressed what I put to you. You're requesting that all decentralised crypto be banned post haste - yet that won't make a jot of difference to the rasomware problem - as the G7 banning bitcoin doesn't meant that it's not traded in other jurisdictions and that it doesn't continue to be used for ransomware. I contend that not only will it continue to be used - but that the extent to which it is used for that purpose (and purposes like it) - will increase. How is this a positive outcome?


(1) Is your supposition that Bitcoin/Crypto has ZERO incremental benefit in the masking of identify, as compared to cash/bank wires in the pursuit of crimes? Please answer.
You mention cash - cash is the medium of exchange of choice when it comes to criminal enterprise and it's far less traceable than bitcoin. With regard to your question, It has already been answered in post #773 ->
Everyone acknowledges that inherent in the decentralised nature of bitcoin is the ability to move funds around more freely. This is what we're here for - and the facility can be used for good and for bad.

Your 'solution' to the ransomware issue is the equivalent of dropping the A bomb - with no upside. You're proposing it on the wayward notion that there is no innovation here. And this would be done for what? As crypto will still be used as the medium of choice for ransomware attacks after any such ban.
 
Last edited:
OK thanks - you've confirmed what everyone knows - its a better widget for crime/ransomware

I've stated the benefit profile looks pretty sh!tty to me.....even after your extensive attempts (which I admired, they were logical and reasoned and came from experience)......but not enough to sway me.....I consider cryptos positives modest.......and its negatives immense

and every day this week the authorities back me up - todays news:

China Hammers Bitcoin Anew With Warning on Miner Crackdown​

 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top