Where to put the money safe if you think a crash is coming

Sunny,

You got out of equities completely and then went back in. You’re doing this off your own bat. You are attempting to time the market, whether you deny it or not.

You don’t seem to understand risk at all; you are making the classic mistake of running with herd and conflating risk and volatility.

You seem to think I’m making a massive call by claiming that an investor in global equities won’t lose money over the next 20 years; I’m fine with that.
 
Gordon Gekko said:
It would be some awakening alright if something that has never happened happens; that a bit of sabre rattling by Donald Trump will somehow morph into something that makes the money that I put into global equities today worth less in 2038.
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Seriously??? You think the only risk is Donald trump because you are investing today??? What about the guy in the Oval Office in 5 years, 10 years, 19 years and 6 months and the decisions he makes??? What about war, climate change or 200 different things that might happen. That doesn’t impact your investment or you think there is nothing he can do to wipe out the ‘gains’ you ‘might’ have made in the preceding 19 years.
 
Gordon Gekko said:
Sunny,

You got out of equities completely and then went back in. You’re doing this off your own bat. You are attempting to time the market, whether you deny it or not.
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No I didn’t. Where did I say that??? I was never never anywhere near completely out of equities.
 
Again Gordon, I notice that you were unable to answer my latest question and had to resort to sarcasm.
 
Sunny said:
I got out of equities at the end of last year. Simply couldn’t understand the valuations considering the political noise.

Got back in after the correction. Didn’t get out at the top or back in at the bottom but I did well out of it.

I probably shouldn’t have gone back in after the correction so maybe you are right. I am just trying to time the market
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Badly phrased but read the entire thread. How many times did I clarify my position??? As someone said above, you are not even reading posts.
 
Well after sitting on the side lines all day I think the high stool is the place for me. Thanks all a bit of a thriller.;)
 
Gordon Gekko said:
Feel free to throw out smart remarks about “past performance being a perfect indicator of future performance”; I’ll just draw comfort from the fact that the person who invested the day before Franz Ferdinand was shot, the day before the 1929 crash, the day before Poland was invaded, the day before Pearl Harbour, the day before the Oil Crisis, the day before the Dot.Com bubble burst, or the day before the Financial Crisis has always been up in after-inflation terms 20 years later, provided he/she stayed the course.
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Gordon Gekko said:
prove that nobody has ever lost on the S&P over any 20 year period. Did you even read the posts? Or do you and your mates just prefer to have a row
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Gordon Gekko said:
So now we know that nobody has ever lost money over a 20 year period in respect of the MSCI World Index or the S&P 500.
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Gordon Gekko said:
do you think that being invested in global equities for any 20 year period has ever led to a loss?
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Gordon Gekko said:
nobody has ever lost money over a 20 year period either.
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Im not sure about anybody else, but Im guessing the Gekko has timed the market?

Gordon Gekko said:
You are attempting to time the market, whether you deny it or not.
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In fairness, who doesn't try time the market?
 
The person with a long time horizon who invests his or her spare cash as and when it becomes available.
 
Gordon Gekko said:
The person with a long time horizon who invests his or her spare cash as and when it becomes available.
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"a long time horizon" or in comparison, a short time horizon like a day, week, month or year...is still timing the market.
What you are appear to be alluding to is risk. In general, the stats will back your assertion and investment strategy of low(er) risk.
But timing the market you are.
 
Which is more risky? Leaving €100,000 on deposit for the next 20 years or investing €100,000 in Global Equities for the next 20 years? In my view, it’s the former.
 
Gordon Gekko said:
Now let’s take your approach, Sunny, which is to chop in and out due to (say) the political concerns that you cited earlier. It’s a flawed approach and one that condemns you to poor returns unless you are the Messiah.
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He is just doing a TA, it is not that dramatic, it's fairly common among fund manager, although I have my doubts that it makes much difference to the long term returns of a portfolio.
 
Gordon Gekko said:
Which is more risky? Leaving €100,000 on deposit for the next 20 years or investing €100,000 in Global Equities for the next 20 years? In my view, it’s the former.
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So you now admit that investing in global equities for 20 years is not risk free like you claimed earlier? It is simply ‘less risky’ than other alternatives.
 
Jim2007 said:
He is just doing a TA, it is not that dramatic, it's fairly common among fund manager, although I have my doubts that it makes much difference to the long term returns of a portfolio.
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I agree. Not claiming to be able to generate outrageous returns or beat fund managers or a passive index over the long term. It has worked out for me so far and I have been able to generate return through having money on the sidelines to invest when I think there is an opportunity but I understand that doesn’t mean anything. I simply don’t see what the issue is with deciding not to be 100% invested in equities at certain times if I see fit. Gordon compared it to putting it on a horse and then claimed equities was risk free as long you left them for 20 years. I just don’t understand his stance considering his usual posts.
 
Sunny said:
So you now admit that investing in global equities for 20 years is not risk free like you claimed earlier? It is simply ‘less risky’ than other alternatives.
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Where did I “admit” that?

Risk is not volatility; Risk is permanent loss of capital. I don’t believe that I will lose money if I invest €100 in global equities today and I’ve a 20 year time-horizon. However, I am almost positive that I will lose money through loss of purchasing power if I leave €100 on deposit for the same period.

I simply disagree with your approach, Sunny, and believe that you’d be better off staying invested rather than chopping and changing in response to noise.

And to reiterate, based on current valuations, and the performance of markets since records began, I see no risk in investing in global equities today with a 20 year time-horizon. You will not lose money.
 
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