Major fall in BTC price (16th Jan)

[jman0war]

I just don't understand that someone could interpret that sentence to mean all 25 yr olds?

Did you really have in mind that all people aged 25 and younger across the globe are investors, or just all of them in a sub-set of countries?
Perhaps only a single country?

 

[Gus1970]

Would you not learn any lesson from that? People with years of experience investing, who have seen fads and bubbles are not buying into this nonsense, whereas people with very limited experience are buying it.

Did the experienced investors ever get it wrong? History tells us that many experienced investors thought that electricity was a fad, the internet was a fad, mobile phones were one too.

To be able to imagine the impact that bitcoin could potentially have on our society, we need to start with an open mind.

I would really hope that the conversation went towards mutual exploration, rather than reiterating entrenched positions and protecting the egos.
I know that i don't know what will happen with bitcoin in the future. I know a lot about it's underlying technology and its rules.

Nobody can predict the future, some of us want to build a better one

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Nobody can predict the future, some of us want to build a better one

The bitcoin crusade for a better future This is becoming farcical.

If bitcoin ever were to gain traction as a currency it could have serious implications for the sound management of our economies and would be far from a better future. However, the prospect does not keep me wake nights because (a) bitcoin is a nonsense and I trust even the upcoming generation to realise that and (b) if a significant minority do start to undermine our monetary system the demographic will of the majority will stamp out the madness. The third possibility, that a majority of folk buy into the nonsense I dismiss as having negligible probability.

 

[TheBigShort]

Ahh, so that explains why the Nobel Prize winners and all mainstream economic commentators have rubbished bitcoin.

Thats a bit of a stretch. For sure, many are pointing to the bitcoin 'bubble', but that does not equate to rubbishing it.
When the likes of Stiglitz calls for it to be regulated in order to put it out of existence, without actually explaining how it is to be regulated, then it doesnt take much to consider that he may be behind the curve on this one.

 

[Sunny]

You just don’t get it Duke because you are over 25 and not part of the generational paradigm shift. Apparently somebody’s wife looks at a load of paper work and most of those people under 25 have crypto currency listed as an asset. while most over the age of 25 don’t or at least don’t declare it. Might as well give up and start buying. I don’t want to miss out. That’s before we even start about helping to make the world a better place. Because there are starving people all the world dreaming of decentralized money system.

 

[TheBigShort]

Because there are starving people all the world dreaming of decentralized money system.

Probably not, just any form of money will suffice...they'll be waiting, as they always have under this monetary system.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Apparently somebody’s wife looks at a load of paper work

This comment could replace the "It's time to sell when the shoe shine boy is buying stocks" story.

Brendan

 

[TheBigShort]

This comment could replace the "It's time to sell when the shoe shine boy is buying stocks" story.

Brendan

It doesnt really correlate. Firstly there appears to be a misunderstanding of that phrase. My understanding is not that the shoe shine boy is buying stocks (all the more power to him if he is) but that he is giving advice on which stocks to buy.
Its the advice that acts as a warning signal. That if the shoe shine boy is giving tips, how did he come about this? And if the shoe shine boy is advising to buy stocks then who else is doing it - everybody?

On the otherhand a person working in a position that allows access to the type of information that is not ordinarily available to others could possibly be quite valuable.

No different to the bank clerk processing mortgage applications can at least gauge whether an increase in such applications may result in increasing prices.

Or anybody else, for that matter, working in any particular industry who has information available to them relating to that particular business or industry.

Its up to everyone else how to decipher that information. The shoe shine boy's business is shining shoes, not stock market advice. Someone who is in a position to observe the financial declarations of investors is in a position to at least make an observation. How valid or relevant that observation is for everyone else to decide for themselves. But to dismiss it out of hand is folly.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

We must presume that jwoman is referencing a reasonably significant statistical sample. Let's say of 100 under 25s she has seen 80 with cryptos and of a similar number, 100, of middle aged folk she has seen abolutely 0 declared cryptos.

That would certainly be prime facie evidence of an interesting generational phenomenon, definitely worthy of academic study.

jman interprets it as a sign of the future to come. But it also reminds me that the bulk of under 25s are rabid lefties whilst the bulk of middle aged folk are centre or centre right and moreover they were themselves long haired lefties when they were once young. Age does bring wisdom IMHO. Maybe crypto is a phase which modern man and woman just have to go through.

On the other hand I chat to the friends of the earls, some of whom have silly paid jobs in the City of London, and every one of them is even more anti crypto than the duke.

So maybe jwoman could provide a little more statistical background to help us understand her quite remarkable empirical observation.

 

[TheBigShort]

So maybe jwoman could provide a little more statistical background to help us understand her quite remarkable empirical observation.

Certainly as it stands, the information is nothing more than hearsay and for me, wholly insufficient to act upon one way or another.
Nevertheless, it is an observation, if combined with other information pertinent to the crypto space, could at a minimum instigate some to look further into this area. Notwithstanding of course, that anyone doing so may still conclude that it is a waste of time.
But it differs from the shoeshine boy giving advice on stock picks insofar as it is information that purports to come from a person in a position to be able to make that observation.

 

[jman0war]

Incidently while i worked in an entry level position in the mid 90's at a very large telecommunications company, my co-workers and I observed a rather clear shift.
In 94 and 95 we were busy processing new applications to provision (setup) websites for companies.
In 96 and 97 we were busy processing disconnect / take-down requests for websites.

The change in direction was obvious to us as we had access to that information, the general public didn't know the volume.
We did not know however, if the take-down was a permanent move off the web by that company, or was the company just moving web hosting to another provider.
Unless they hosted their DNS with us anyway.

 

[jman0war]

The information about websites setup vs takedowns that was available to me probably could have been useful for anybody looking to spot macro trends regarding web hosting (dotcom bubble).
I wasn't particularly interested in any of it, other than domain name squatting.
And most of my co-workers and I just assumed that companies were abandoning the hosting solutions provided by our employer for a better deal elsewhere.
Web hosting was an increasingly competitive space.

 

[TheBigShort]

Exactly the point jman0war.

I get the sense that some posters only believe a change is occurring if it comes from some official source or has some mathematical equation to identify and back it up. These things have value, but in my opinion tend generally to be behind the curve.
Certainly, when I first bought some bitcoin I was as skeptical as anyone here about the whole thing. But now that I have bought and sold and transferred it, I can see clearly its potential to be used as a currency.
That said, its not without its difficulties and how this all ends up remains to be seen. Some say it will go to zero, others to $100,000. I not sure of either. But I would factor in one thing, that the way we will be transacting with each other in financial terms looks set to be something quite different as to the way we transact today in the not too distant future.
Exciting times ahead I would say.

 

[jman0war]

I have a hunch the same posters that appear to be clueless regarding crypto are similarly clueless that young people such as today's teens, aren't into Facebook; and that this generational divide is going to carry some serious implications for that company.

 

[jman0war]

I found this article rather telling.

The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) expresses some concern over central banks issuance of digital currency (CBDC).
Essentially, if Central Banks issue their own cryto, they are worried that punters will be able to transfer money out of their local banks and into say, a larger one like the Central Bank really quickly, facilitating 'bank runs'.

In sum, the BIS noted that a currency of that nature "might be useful for payments but more work is needed to assess the full potential."

"A general purpose CBDC could give rise to higher instability of commercial bank deposit funding. Even if designed primarily with payment purposes in mind, in periods of stress a flight towards the central bank may occur on a fast and large scale, challenging commercial banks and the central bank to manage such situations," the BIS stated at the outset.

Later on, the report's authors revisited the subject, outlining a hypothetical situation in which banks - even stronger ones - could face issues during a bank run thanks to the ease at which a depositor could move their funds by way of the digital currency.

The report explains:
"Depending on the context, the shift in deposits could be large in times of stress. A crucial element in such system-wide shifts is the stronger sensitivity of depositors to the actions of others. The more other depositors run from weaker banks, the greater the incentive to run oneself. If CBDC were available, the incentives to run could be sharper and more pervasive than today, as the CBDC would be the favoured destination, especially if deposits were not insured in the first place or deposit insurance was (made more) limited. Whereas weaker banks could experience a run, even stronger banks could face withdrawals in the presence of CBDC."
"It would be difficult to stem runs under such conditions, even when providing large lender of last resort facilities," the report adds.

https://www.coindesk.com/central-bank-digital-currencies-fuel-bank-runs-bis-says/

It's like an acknowlegement that they are concerned people will have too easy,too immediate access to their money and too much freedom to move it.

It's basically almost revealing that part of the current commercial banks business model is put the brakes on your access to your money.
These feet-dragging institutions are ripe for some digital disruption.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

I have a hunch

If you are planning your finances seriously, you should do so based on analysis not hunches, magical thinking, or anecdotes from your wife.

Bitcoin is a bag of hot air, fairy dust, whatever.

You have been told this on numerous occasions, yet not one of the faithful has yet come up with any basis for a valuation above zero.

No one has explained why its price went from $1,000 to $20,000 in a year.

There is no basis for it to have any value above zero. So you can only rely on magical thinking supported by your wife's anecdotes and, now, the demise of Facebook. Discussing it with you is like talking to flat earthers. They are fully convinced that the round earth theory is a conspiracy and they have all the stories and arguments to support them.

Check out how reasonable this guy sounds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYcnLj8suLw

Brendan

 

[Sunny]

But now that I have bought and sold and transferred it, I can see clearly its potential to be used as a currency.
That said, its not without its difficulties and how this all ends up remains to be seen. Some say it will go to zero, others to $100,000. I not sure of either. But I would factor in one thing, that the way we will be transacting with each other in financial terms looks set to be something quite different as to the way we transact today in the not too distant future.
Exciting times ahead I would say.

But that is exactly the point. How can Bitcoin ever be a currency if you don't know if it will be worth zero or $100,000. That's not a small range. Never mind the technology but until you can stop the speculating and the noise and the hype around it, it will never be used as a currency because it is.

As for the future and how we transact with each other being different, well that is hardly a big call. There are already numerous non-traditional banking ways of transferring money and paying for things with almost zero transaction fees. This is very different to the vision that people have of Bitcoin replacing the world's currencies or of blockchain technology changing the world.

 

[TheBigShort]

I have a hunch the same posters that appear to be clueless regarding crypto are similarly clueless that young people such as today's teens, aren't into Facebook; and that this generational divide is going to carry some serious implications for that company.

My eldest is only 11. The words 'Facebook' and 'Boring!' are synonymous with each other in his mind.

 

[Sunny]

I have a hunch the same posters that appear to be clueless regarding crypto are similarly clueless that young people such as today's teens, aren't into Facebook; and that this generational divide is going to carry some serious implications for that company.

Don't need to be young to not be "into" Facebook.

 

[Sunny]

I found this article rather telling.

The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) expresses some concern over central banks issuance of digital currency (CBDC).
Essentially, if Central Banks issue their own cryto, they are worried that punters will be able to transfer money out of their local banks and into say, a larger one like the Central Bank really quickly, facilitating 'bank runs'.

That's not what they are saying. Tell me one central bank that takes deposits from individuals or 'punters'?