Major fall in BTC price (16th Jan)

Brendan Burgess said:
There is no possibility whatsoever that Bitcoin will be worth anything at the end of the day. It is worthless. 100%.
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Hi Brendan,

Would that not imply zero demand for the currency, as in, nobody will ever use Bitcoin to buy anything? I think Bitcoin will stick around and even if only used to support illegal activity, it will have some value as somebody will need to buy it with something else (FIAT)
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Absolutely.

In a privately owned start up, there is a possibility that it might succeed.

There is no possibility whatsoever that Bitcoin will be worth anything at the end of the day. It is worthless. 100%.

You can only make money on it if you get in and out again before it collapses completely.

Brendan
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Sorry, but we disagree here.

There is an extremely high risk of failure with a start up, so the investment is very high risk in either case.

The absence of a liquid market where an investor can exit their investment in a start up at any time, cannot be ignored. An investor in a crypto currency can exit their investment at any time, so could exit at a point in time when the price of their currency is above what they paid for it.

Finally, I note that you refer to Bitcoin. Is that intentional, or just force of habit ? My reason for asking is because there are numerous crypto currencies and not all should be considered to have the same level of risk (albeit, all are either high risk, extremely high risk, or just plane nuts, imho).
 
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Brendan Burgess said:
Absolutely.

In a privately owned start up, there is a possibility that it might succeed.

There is no possibility whatsoever that Bitcoin will be worth anything at the end of the day. It is worthless. 100%
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It sounds like wishful thinking.
If bitcoin didn't collapse in 2013 after Mt. Gox and Silk Road, it won't collapse now.
The network is much bigger now and as robust as ever.
Sure, Banks and government can collude to try and freeze bitcoin out and will undoubtedly affect price; but bitcoin is censorship resistant.
It will always have utility on the dark web and now there are more people than ever in the same limited space.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
There is no possibility whatsoever that Bitcoin will be worth anything at the end of the day
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That’s a big call. Its currently trading around €5,000. My guess is it will still be worth something this time tomorrow. :D

On a more serious note, while I respect your view that it will return to zero and you may be right, you have also admitted that you don’t know when it will return to zero. The fact is everything returns to zero once it has been fully utilised, consumed, destroyed, or becomes obsolete.

So as much as you constantly proclaim bitcoin to return to zero, you aren’t actually stating anything new that cannot be said of practically everything else that can be utilised, consumed, destroyed or become obsolete.
 
TheBigShort said:
The fact is everything returns to zero once it has been fully utilised, consumed, destroyed, or becomes obsolete.
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No, not at all. Companies tend to reinvest their profits and grow. Of course, some go to zero, but enough go on to make lots of money.

Most houses, or the land they are on, increase in value over time.

Bitcoin has no value. Just a price which will revert to zero, in time.

Brendan
 
All houses and the land they are on will return to zero once our sun becomes a red giant!

I know this is silly, but seriously Brendan...
Many have said, in different ways that an open ended prediction is meaningless.
Surely you can agree with that?
 
I expect Bitcoin will be gone by the end of this year, but it might not.

It will definitely be gone in a couple of years.

It might be doing something on the Dark Web at that stage - but even that is probably unlikely.

Normal citizens who have bought Bitcoin will not be able to realise any cash for them legitimately within a few years.

Is that precise enough?

From a practical point of view, I am simply trying to stop people losing money. I am also trying to help those of you who have been lucky enough to make money, to preserve your wealth. If you lose 98% of your money but get some satisfaction by coming back to me at the end of 2020 saying "Ha, ha, Brendan - you were wrong. Bitcoin is still worth 10 cents per unit on the Dark Web" so be it.

Bitcoin is worth nothing. No one should be buying it. Those of you who have should sell it as soon as you can.

Brendan
 
What's so unique about this year or the next couple of years, that makes it different this time?

Bitcoin didn't have nearly the same censorship resistance in 2013, and only like a couple of places where one could buy it with Fiat.
SilkRoad and Mt.Gox should have been the knockout blow?
 
Bitcoin was worth nothing at the start.
It was worth nothing a few years ago.
It's worth nothing now.

Bubbles grow slowly and then burst. So what is unique about this year is that it's 5 years later. A lot of people will have seen the bubble rising and then deflating.

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Bitcoin was worth nothing at the start.
It was worth nothing a few years ago.
It's worth nothing now.

Bubbles grow slowly and then burst. So what is unique about this year is that it's 5 years later. A lot of people will have seen the bubble rising and then deflating.

Brendan
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People in 2013 bought Bitcoin using Fiat currency; people in each year since then right up to today also bought Bitcoin using Fiat currency.
This indicates that people believe that Bitcoin is worth something.
That is the only measure of anythings worth : people's subjective valuation of it.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Bitcoin was worth nothing at the start.
It was worth nothing a few years ago.
It's worth nothing now.
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Again your views are contrary. Recently you were telling me about the efficiency of the market. I assume you accept their is a market for bitcoin? But somehow you cannot accept the efficiency of its market.
To use my record collection analogy, my collection is worth €10,000 to me, a record dealer will offer me €150 fot it, my wife will pay you €50 to get rid of it.
How can my record collection be worth €10,000, €150 and -€50 at the same time?
Surely that is what the market is efficient for? Price discovery at any given time?

Bitcoin is trading @€5,500 at the moment. That is what it is worth.
 
TheBigShort said:
Recently you were telling me about the efficiency of the market.
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The stock market is, more or less efficient, is I hope what I told you.

But bubbles develop as did the dot.com bubble. But the markets for tulips in 17tch Holland or pyramid schemes WEW in Ireland or crypto currencies today are definitely not efficient. There is no contradiction.

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
No, that is its price. They are fundamentally different concepts.
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It is the price at which the market sets its value or worth. You may think it is worth zero, or next to zero, someone else may think it is worth €150, someone else may think it is worth €10,000.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
The price will fall to zero to reflect its value.
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Only if people stop buying it. But in order to sell it (to stop losing money) I need a buyer. If there are buyers then it wont return to zero.

So your claim that you are trying to stop people losing their money is false. In order for your prediction of bitcoin to return to zero, some people will have to lose their money. In order for your bets to come through on PP or Betfair, others will have to lose their money.

You are not interested in trying to stop people losing their money, in fact the opposite. It is in your interest that people lose their money via bitcoin going to zero.
 
TheBigShort said:
No you are not.



Following that advice, if I sell my bitcoin - who should buy it? No-one?
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The will be mining up to 2040 I suspect the need your money to mine what they cant sell,

It will come back down over time some people will hold on until there bitcoin is worth less than the gave for it,

There are a lot of people up money reading some of the posts on hear the are not going to sell until bitcoin makes them a loss,

I suspect bitcoin has a undercover value to move money around the World for now,

It was set up to look like it will last until 2040 for a reason ,
 
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