Key Post What Brendan Burgess has actually said about property, prices and borrowing

[ajapale]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

Hi Tyoung,

In that discussion 11 posters advised SELL
and 4/5 advised HOLD
and 2 advised the OP to consider the level of risk they wished to take.

1 (the last poster) advised the OP to SELL and consider buying overseas!

Have you considered selling Irish property and buying property in fast growing area abroad eg: Berlin, Poland, China

All the posts (including your own) were well thought out and rational and the comments were well recieved by the OP.


aj

 

[Jethro Tull]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

People were beginning to withdraw their money from Irish banks. RTE News tried to get Patrick Neary or the Minister for Finance to comment but they were not available. So I commented in an effort to calm people down and stop a run on Irish banks.

Was it not a shocking omission to not disclose you had a major holding in Irish bank shares?

Also were you trying to stop a run on bank deposits or bank share prices?

I did say "in a few years time".

In a few years time the major Irish banks may well have all been nationalised and investors taking your advice may well have lost 100% of their cash

 

[MugsGame]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

It's also worth pointing out that Brendan Burgess has a long history of agitating on behalf of borrowers against predatory practices from lenders such as Irish Nationwide. This is very relevant to his recent appointment.

 

[room305]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

Hi Tyoung,

In that discussion 11 posters advised SELL
and 4/5 advised HOLD
and 2 advised the OP to consider the level of risk they wished to take.

1 (the last poster) advised the OP to SELL and consider buying overseas!



All the posts (including your own) were well thought out and rational and the comments were well recieved by the OP.


aj

It is worth noting that the OP on that thread followed Brendan's advice to hold onto the property, despite the majority of posters advising the OP to sell.

 

[aristotle]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

In my opinion that mega thread with 8000 responses or whatever was valuable, banning the discussion of property prices was wrong and it did show a potential vested interest. We all (generally) obviously have a huge interest in property and a site "about money" should have allowed that discussion.

If that thread bothered you so much why didn't you just ignore it? Its not like anyone forced you to read it. Banning it just because you didn't like its popularity was wrong.

I appreciate AAM is your site but at the same time you cannot be a dictator on the internet, the site depends on a community.

 

[jhegarty]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

I have been browsing this forum for many years and it was quite obvious people were allowed talk about the price of houses going up; it was only the talk of prices going down that was banned.

I haven't seen these.

Have you got a few links ?

 

[UFC]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

I haven't seen these.

Have you got a few links ?

It would obviously take me quite a while to find them, so I hope you can understand I am not going to find them for you. But I know my opinion is shared by many posters on Boards.ie and Thepropertypin.com, so I don't believe it was my imagination!

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

It would obviously take me quite a while to find them, so I hope you can understand I am not going to find them for you. But I know my opinion is shared by many posters on Boards.ie and Thepropertypin.com, so I don't believe it was my imagination!

I don't think you're being completely honest Brendan.

I have been browsing this forum for many years and it was quite obvious people were allowed talk about the price of houses going up; it was only the talk of prices going down that was banned.

It will take you a very, very long time to find them as it's entirely your imagination.

It was repeated, time and time again on various other websites and occasionally on Askaboutmoney.

That is why I started this thread. Because people were beginning to take this stuff as fact alhough there is no basis for it.

If you search really hard, you may find posts forecastiing price increases or price decreases. When they are reported to the moderators, they are deleted.

UFC

Start again with an open mind. Forget the unsubstantiated stuff on other forums. Find the direct evidence. If you don't, I think you should revisit your first post accusing me of dishonesty. If you made those comments about any other user on Askaboutmoney, you would get a severe warning for abuse.

 

[tiger]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

I think alot of property discussion threads were locked, deleted, or moved to letting off steam (which stops users <50 post count) e.g.
http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=52534

 

[tyoung]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

From the earlier linked thread Brendan said

"No one knows what will happen to property prices. There is, of course, a risk that propery may fall by 30%. In time, property will rise again."

This sums up Brendan's pollyannaish attitude to risk. It will be all right in the end.

I'm sorry to be harsh but this is not good enough from an "expert". By August 2007 all the evidence suggested a much more cautious approach to risk.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

Was it not a shocking omission to not disclose you had a major holding in Irish bank shares?

I have always been very public about my shareholding in AIB. I owned the shares in my own name rather than through a nominee company. If I make a specific reference to AIB, in a post, or in a media comment, I try to remember to state it.

Also were you trying to stop a run on bank deposits or bank share prices?

As I thought I made quite clear - it was to stop a run on bank deposits. The problem at the time was not AIB - I think that the run was on the Irish Nationwide and Anglo to a lesser extent. Much of the money coming out of Irish Nationwide would probably have gone to AIB.

In a few years time the major Irish banks may well have all been nationalised and investors taking your advice may well have lost 100% of their cash

I went in to talk about deposits. If he had told me he would ask about shares. I would have prepared a longer answer. He asked about bank shares. I replied about the Irish stockmarket generally.

It's very unlikely that anyone who bought a balanced porfolio of Irish shares will lose all their cash. They are down about 30% as of now.

Anyone who bought Anglo has already lost all their cash invested in Anglo. And investors in AIB or Bank of Ireland may well lose their money.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

If that thread bothered you so much why didn't you just ignore it? Its not like anyone forced you to read it. Banning it just because you didn't like its popularity was wrong.

I appreciate AAM is your site but at the same time you cannot be a dictator on the internet, the site depends on a community.

Hi Aristotle, welcome to the community of Askaboutmoney.

We have very strict posting guidelines on remaining civil, avoiding bad language, defamation etc.

The thread was constantly in breach of the guidelines. This creates a lot of work for moderators and the thread added nothing at all.

In the past, we have had to suspend discussions on Ryanair, Public Service Bashing and some other topics as well.

As is explained in the thread on why we banned house prices - I am the only one who made an effort to get a balanced discussion going. People prefer shouting abuse rather than takiing time out to actually write a long piece summarising the arguments.

 

[Afuera]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

One big problem facing people saving up to buy their first home, is that they must leave their money on deposit at 2%, while house prices normally rise far faster. So a deposit worth 10% of the value of a house, might be worth only 5% after a few years.

In fairness Brendan, a lot of the stuff you have said over the years has been very bullish on property. The above quote being the first example I came across where you are trying to come up with a way of helping first time buyers get themselves on the "housing ladder".

Maybe you did not intend it to come across so bullish. Or maybe it is simply a product of the psyche of the country at the time. Either way, you are promoting property and the idea that it is a way of attaining wealth. Trying to revise things now, is neither here nor there.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

I think alot of property discussion threads were locked, deleted, or moved to letting off steam (which stops users <50 post count) e.g.
http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=52534

Hi tiger

We did not allow discussion of property prices. Duriing the period of the ban, threads on the topic were deleted.

However, we allowed discussion of that programme in Letting Off Steam.

I had no objection at all to people discussing property prices - just not on Askaboutmoney. That is why we repeatedly provided links to interesting programmes and sites like the property pin.

 

[Afuera]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

As is explained in the thread on why we banned house prices - I am the only one who made an effort to get a balanced discussion going.

Part of the problem though is that we are not talking about accounting here. In the real world sometimes things don't balance.

Hindsight, has clearly shown that there was no valid arguments for property prices maintaining such a high level. Any arguments to defend the high prices were based on fallacies. Posters that pointed out those fallacies were met with a tirade of abuse or bannings.

As someone who claims to have the consumer's interest at heart, you had the opportunity to help them see the wood from the trees with the Askaboutmoney.com platform.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

From the earlier linked thread Brendan said

"No one knows what will happen to property prices. There is, of course, a risk that propery may fall by 30%. In time, property will rise again."

This sums up Brendan's pollyannaish attitude to risk. It will be all right in the end.

I'm sorry to be harsh but this is not good enough from an "expert". By August 2007 all the evidence suggested a much more cautious approach to risk.

No need to apologise at all. You mentioned in the other thread that I needed to "listen and learn". I have learnt from you and from others on Askaboutmoney.

This is a very interesting quote. I point out the risk of a serious fall. It's in the context of a long term investor who is confusing short term, well anticipated, problems with his long term strategy. We obviously disagreed at the time as to how he should progress.

In retrospect, I would probably word that differently. "If prices fall by 30%, then they will take a very long time to recover."

This thread is very interesting in that I recommend to someone to temporarily hold onto a property. There are many other examples, where I have suggested to people that they should sell their property because they are overexposed to the property market. I was saying this back in 2004 for example.

Are you overinvested in the property market?
All investment decisions should be looked at in the context of one’s overall finances. Lark has a €470k exposure to the property market with his new house. He will benefit from any price rise anyway. Perhaps he should look at investing in the stockmarket with the money to balance his portfolio?

Lifestyle and other issues
If Lark sells his old house, he will have a mortgage of €250k on a home worth €470k. That's a 53% loan to value vs. 72% loan to value if he keeps his old home. So it gets down to whether you place a higher premium on risk or comfort?

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

Posters that pointed out those fallacies were met with a tirade of abuse or bannings.

Which is why we banned discussion of property prices!

In fairness Brendan, a lot of the stuff you have said over the years has been very bullish on property. The above quote being the first example I came across where you are trying to come up with a way of helping first time buyers get themselves on the "housing ladder".

Hi Afuera - can you provide the link to that quote please.

Maybe you did not intend it to come across so bullish. ...Either way, you are promoting property and the idea that it is a way of attaining wealth.

Bizarrely, it's the very opposite. Did you read the record which I have gone to great trouble to put together. I pointed out that property prices fall long before it was popular to talk about it.

I pointed out that investing in shares is better than investing in property especially if you have another home.

I have been very clear that people should buy their own homes for both financial and non-financial reasons.

Trying to revise things now, is neither here nor there.

I have reproduced the full context of what I said with the links. I am not trying to revise anything.

A false idea has developed that I cheered along the property boom. You are ignoring all the evidence to the contrary.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

As someone who claims to have the consumer's interest at heart, you had the opportunity to help them see the wood from the trees with the Askaboutmoney.com platform.

Time and time again, on askaboutmoney and elsewhere, I have said that I cannot predict property prices. I have highlighted the risks on many occasions. I have pointed out that property prices can and do fall.

I did not know if we were in a bubble or not. Let's say that I had carefully weighed up all the arguments and became convinced that we were in a property bubble. So what should I have done differently? Put up a big banner on askaboutmoney saying "Sell your house now and rent for the foreseeable future".

By the way, I don't like the implication of "claims" - and if you were abusing any other poster in this way, I would delete it.

Active member of FISC the precursor of MABS which provided free financial advice to those who could not afford the services of a chartered accountant.
Participated in a very successful campaign against endowment mortgages.
Campaigned against demutualisaton of Irish Permanent as it was not in the interests of mortgage holders.( A lone voice by the way)
Askaboutmoney has been providing a service to consumers for over 10 years - through boom and bust.
I have written extensively on topics such as "What to do if you are in mortgage arrears"
I have campaigned over many years to improve the lot of the Irish Nationwide borrowers.
I have chaired the Consumer Panel of the Financial Regulator.
I have warned people about the dangers of investing in overseas properties.
I have warned people of the risks involved in Irish residential property.
I have contributed frequently to many, many threads on askaboutmoney on issues such as "Money Makeover" etc.

So actually, I think that I can actually claim to have the consumers' interests at heart.

 

[Afuera]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

Hi Afuera - can you provide the link to that quote please.

Link: Some ideas to get your foot on the housing ladder

Bizarrely, it's the very opposite. Did you read the record which I have gone to great trouble to put together. I pointed out that property prices fall long before it was popular to talk about it.

I pointed out that investing in shares is better than investing in property especially if you have another home.

I have been very clear that people should buy their own homes for both financial and non-financial reasons.



I have reproduced the full context of what I said with the links. I am not trying to revise anything.

A false idea has developed that I cheered along the property boom. You are ignoring all the evidence to the contrary.

Your warnings on the state of the Irish property market may have been too obtuse as I failed to see them. I'm sure I'm not the only one.

People were taking major risks in buying property at such elevated levels yet you stated such gems as the following: "It is ok to stretch yourself financially to get on the housing market"

Link: Interest Only Mortgages - Whats the catch?

 

[bankrupt]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

I did not know if we were in a bubble or not. Let's say that I had carefully weighed up all the arguments and became convinced that we were in a property bubble. So what should I have done differently? Put up a big banner on askaboutmoney saying "Sell your house now and rent for the foreseeable future".

For most people, a house purchase will be the single largest financial decision of their lives. Given this, it always seemed extraordinary to me that AAM would not allow the cost of this decision to be discussed and even more extraordinary that this discussion should be banned at a critical time in the development of the bubble. That said, this discussion is sufficient to keep an entirely new forum (Property Pin) busy and so it cannot have been easy to maintain the level of moderation that AAM enforces. Is Brendan somehow tainted as a result of banning this discussion? I doubt it. His consumer advocate credentials over many years are clear to see and I don't believe he has ever been disingenuous and despite what others claim, I don't see any smoking guns lying around. Was it an unfortunate decision in retrospect? Yes, I believe so but that really is only of academic interest now.