Things I still don't understand about Election 2016

[cremeegg]

I don't understand how FF won the election with 44 seats while FG lost with 50.

I don't understand why water charges are so important.

I don't understand how so many posters know what the people have said. It seems to me the people have given no clear message.

I don't understand how a government can be formed from the existing Dail.

I don't understand how a second election would deliver a meaningfully different result. FG/Lab are more than 20 seats short and any other realistic combo further short.

I still don't understand how subsequent transfers work, despite Brendan's best efforts to educate me. Does the pool of original transfers not affect the pool available for subsequent transfers ?

 

[Leper]

1. FF did not win anything they just made up some ground. FG didn't lose anything they just lost some ground. Labour were the real Losers.Renua were catastrophic losers.
2. Water Charges although appearing to be not important were the straw that broke the camel's back to a people who were overencumbered with austerity. Remember there are no bankers or crooked politicians in jail.
3. Posters (like me) draw their own conclusions from votes cast for no-hopers and spoiled and not even cast for protest reasons.
4. Sorry, I don't understand the statement.
5. We don't know if there will be another general election in the short term; neither do we know who most of the electorate will support. Remember 1 in 3 did not vote last week.
6. Single Transferable Vote (PR) - to help you understand the system just arrange your own election with slips of paper for four places amongst ten competitors.

Watching Prime Time tonight it appears that its a Grand Coalition or another election. Most of the politicians from my observations over the weekend do not have the stomach for a 2nd election so soon.

 

[moneybox]

I am surprised to see one in three did not vote last week, if another election is called it is highly likely that figure will fall further.

 

[so-crates]

On your fourth point, historically our governments have mostly been majority governments but there is no reason why they have to be. Any TD can be put forward for Taoiseach, the Dáil (and only the Dáil) as a whole votes on them. They then nominate a cabinet to form a government. There are constitutional limits on the size of the government (7-15 members incl Taoiseach and Tánaiste). Note that that number doesn't include junior ministers and ministers of State.Traditionally the party leaders are nominated for Taoiseach (unless they have agreed to be a junior partner in a coalition).

Minority governments have occurred occasionally in the past (think of Alan Dukes Tallaght strategy to support a FF minority government in order to provide a stable government). FG or FF could form a minority government, in theory SF or Labour (now they have Willie Penrose) could do so to but practically they are far too small to do so alone. SF have declared they won't be party to any government they don't lead (ah the gentle sound of flip-flops as Gerry ambles over to his trampoline). Labour have given an absolute statement that they intend to go into opposition. As have the Lúdramán Left (well it is Seachtain na Gaeilge!)

FG/FF would be a majority government even though some idiot has decided that water charges should be a "red line" issue - which is simply preposterous - it is still more likely than any other coalition. It would provide the country with stability but it could come at a cost for FF in particular - not all FF TDs would be happy to go into coalition with FG and some may be willing to leave over the matter (O'Cuiv would be one to watch). Defections are possible but less likely with FG.

As FG and FF hold 94 seats between them, leaving 64 seats for other parties and independents, no coalition can have a majority without one or the other of them.

(Don't forget at some point someone will have to be Ceann Comhairle - they then will no longer be in the numbers game for government. Just before the Dáil rose, the government put through a change to ensure that the Ceann Comhairle can be anyone in the Dáil - up until now it has always been a member of the government party/parties)

The slimmest majority is 79. So FG would need to find 29 TDs to join them and FF would need 35. Labour and AAA-PBP have adamantly ruled out joining in, so that pool of 64 becomes 51. SF have notions so that 51 becomes 28. So even with the support of every independent TD, the Greens and the Social Democrats, such a government would not have a majority (and would have more factions than a Middle East war).

The most likely options are either a FG/FF coalition, a minority FG government. a minority FG + others coalition and the same two options with FF (less likely though).

If the Dáil can manage to elect a Taoiseach - we will have a government (possibly weak or ineffectual, possibly fragile but definitely there). That is the crunch point - getting a Taoiseach sorted.

 

[thedaddyman]

I am surprised to see one in three did not vote last week, if another election is called it is highly likely that figure will fall further.

was it really 1 in 3 or is it a reflection of the state of the electoral register?. It was late (10pm) when I went to vote, when the person crossed my name off the list I could clearly see that most people in my street had voted.

I also know 2 people living in Dublin but from down the country who got polling cards for their home and Dublin Constituency.

 

[noproblem]

I'm listening to Leo on the SOR show at the moment and is it any wonder FG find themselves in a mess? If this is what's seen as a future leader/ Taoiseach then god help us all. He contradicts almost everything he says but obviously loves the radio/tv, media end of things and his own voice.

 

[odyssey06]

FF won 24 seats they didn't have, FG lost 25 seats they did have. The momentum is with FF. In footballing terms, while FF haven't won the cup tie yet, they've got an away goal for the second leg...

 

[Firefly]

I'm listening to Leo on the SOR show at the moment and is it any wonder FG find themselves in a mess? If this is what's seen as a future leader/ Taoiseach then god help us all. He contradicts almost everything he says but obviously loves the radio/tv, media end of things and his own voice.

I like Leo I must say - think he's a decent fella with his heart in the right place. I think though, FG do need someone with more presence and nobody immediately comes to mind...

 

[jpd]

Not convinced that the other parties fare better - but at least we don't measure them by the size of their manhood, as in America

 

[thedaddyman]

Water charges are only important to urban dwellers, for a lot of people in the country and for every farmer we've been paying them for years. Except instead of paying the taxman we've been paying the ESB, the plumber or anyone else involved in private supplies or group schemes. That is the main reason AAA/BPB got virtually no votes in rural Ireland, they have nothing to offer. I know farmers who are delighted the townies were being made to finally cough up.

As for a rerun, 2 things could change it

• A change in leadership in FG and Labour could give them a bounce. 3 or 4% combined would bring them much closer to 79
• FG,FF and SF threw seats away with some crazy candidate strategies. For example, FG ran 3 candidates in Cork East, a 4 seater and ended up splitting their vote and losing a seat. If they had ran 2, chances are they would have got 2. SF did the same in Donegal and FF in a couple of places ran 1 but got a quota and a half. 75% of TD's would be returned in a rerun but the last 30 or 40 seats could swing between the parties and change the balance

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I agree that there appears something random about the transfer of surpluses. It seems to depend on how they were shuffled in the first place. But I think once they have been shuffled and put in order that order is never subsequently changed even on recounts. All that recounts do is re-count the ballots. It doesn't start from the very beginning with a fresh re-shuffle of the ballots.

 

[T McGibney]

• FG,FF and SF threw seats away with some crazy candidate strategies. For example, FG ran 3 candidates in Cork East, a 4 seater and ended up splitting their vote and losing a seat. If they had ran 2, chances are they would have got 2. SF did the same in Donegal and FF in a couple of places ran 1 but got a quota and a half.

This worked both ways. FF haven't had 2 TD's in Cavan since 1973, when Cavan was a standalone 3-seat constituency, but they counter-intuitively ran two Cavan candidates and got the 2 of them elected.

 

[Gerry Canning]

What I don,t understand is the surprise over the result.

1. (whingers) generally didn,t want Independents and reverted to FF .FF need to realise they have only re-borrowed these voters.

2.Most people got tired of recession/words of recovery/more little hits etc and got to the point of wishing change and FG for good or bad got the hit.

3. aaa/pbb Sf etc , did not do as well as they projected , protest ain,t a policy !

4. I think two thirds voting is high turnout and healthy.

I smell Election by November.

 

[MrEarl]

What I don't understand is why it took so long to count the votes....

It's hardly like they didn't know how many candidates would be standing for election, or approx. how many votes would be cast by the population and yet for some reason, it went on for days in some of the Dublin constituencies for example.

Another thing I do not understand is why people seem quite happy to accept that the politicans who we have just elected and are getting paid from our nations resources, are now going to be permitted to drag their heels and perhaps delay forming a government and actually doing some work for potentially a month or more. If we told them they were not getting paid until they had finalised an agreement to form some sort of stable government, that might get them moving a bit faster !