Not just a recession - how to prepare

Discussion in 'Letting Off Steam' started by z103, Mar 4, 2009.

  1. z103

    z103 Guest

    It's has become increasingly obvious to me that we are in more than just simply a recession. This isn't just a return to the 80s for a few years.

    - Number of job losses. The job losses are horrendous. It really is shocking how quickly these jobs are being lost. We are already at 10.4% unemployment rate.
    - Types of jobs being lost. We know we're in trouble when the likes of KPMG are getting rid of staff, and accountants and bankers etc applying for McDonalds jobs.
    - Collapse of ISEQ. It has crashed within the space of a few months.
    - Collapse of Banks. One has been nationalised and it doesn't look too rosy for the others.
    - SMEs dropping like flies. This isn't as reported as much in media, but a friend whose company deals with SMEs tells me that this month, he is getting more cancellations from bankrupt SMEs than orders. Scary stuff.
    - Many people are up to their eyeballs in debt and mortgages. This makes a striking difference from the 80s.

    So how do we prepare for the future?

    -----
    Bad: Job loses ease a bit, massive tax increases
    How to prepare:
    Pay off all debt (if possible). Move country - but where? Any other ideas?
    -----
    Very Bad: Social unrest, >30% unemployed
    How to prepare:
    Start stock piling food and other rations. I would suggest tinned, high protein but not very nice food. Water filtration equipment. Weapons.
    Horde stuff that can be bartered.
    Home security - beef this up a bit.

    Anyone have any other ideas?
     
  2. Ruam

    Ruam Frequent Poster

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    I think you have a point but unless society plan for the breakdown it will be a very ugly world. I think food and security will be the priorities.

    The article below was written by James Kunstler someone who has been predicting the collapse of our economic system for a number of years now. Makes for frightening reading.



    Isn't that a question, though....
    The Peak Oil story was never about running out of oil. It was
    about the collapse of complex systems in a world economy faced by the
    prospect of no further oil-fueled growth. It was something of a shock to
    many that the first complex system to fail would be banking, but the
    process is obvious: no more growth means no more ability to pay interest
    on credit... end of story, as Tony Soprano used to say.
    There was a popular theory among Peak Oilers the last decade that
    the world would enter a "bumpy plateau" period when the global economy
    would get beaten down by peak oil, would then revive as "demand
    destruction" drove down oil prices, and would be beaten down again as
    oil prices shot up in response -- with serial repetitions of the cycle,
    each beat-down taking economies lower -- the only imaginable outcome
    being some sort of quiet homeostasis. This scenario did not play out as
    expected. It was predicated on a mistaken assumption that all systems
    would retain some kind of operational resilience while ratcheting down.
    Anyway, the banking system was mortally wounded in the first go-round
    and the behemoth is dying hard.
    The last desperate act of the banking system in the face of Peak
    Oil's no-more-growth equation was to engineer species of tradable
    securities that could produce wealth out of thin air rather than
    productive activity. This was the alphabet soup of algorithm-derived
    frauds with vague and confounding names such as credit default swaps
    (CDSs), collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), structured investment
    vehicles (SIVs), and, of course, the basic filler, mortgage backed
    securities. The banking system is now choking to death on these delicacies.
    The trouble is that the EMT squad brought in to rescue the banking
    system -- that is, governments -- can't remove these obstructions from
    the patient's craw. They don't want to drown in a mighty upchuck of the
    alphabet soup.
    The collapse of complex systems is actually predicated on the idea
    that the systems would mutually reinforce each other's failures. This is
    now plain to see as the collapse of banking (that is, of both lending
    and debt service), has led to the collapse of commerce and
    manufacturing. The next systems to go will probably be farming,
    transportation, and the oil markets themselves (which constitute the
    system for allocating and distributing world energy resources). As these
    things seize up, the final system to go will be governance, at least at
    the highest levels.
    If we're really lucky, human affairs will eventually reorganize at
    a lower scale of activity, governance, civility, and economy. Every
    week, the failure to recognize the nature of our predicament thrusts us
    further into the uncharted territory of hardship. The task of government
    right now is not to prop up doomed systems at their current scales of
    failure, but to prepare the public to rebuild our systems at smaller scales.
    The net effect of the failures in banking is that a lot of people
    have less money than they expected they would have a year ago. This is
    bad enough, given our habits and practices of modern life. But what
    happens when farming collapses? The prospect for that is closer than
    most of us might realize. The way we produce our food has been organized
    at a scale that has ruinous consequences, not least its addiction to
    capital. Now that banking is in collapse, capital will be extremely
    scarce. Nobody in the cities reads farm news, or listens to farm reports
    on the radio. Guess what, though: we are entering the planting season.
    It will be interesting to learn how many farmers "out there" in the
    Cheez Doodle belt are not able to secure loans for this year's crop....

    http://www.kunstler.com/mags_diary25.html
     
  3. bamboozle

    bamboozle Frequent Poster

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    538
    3 things that need to happen for the country to stabilise....

    1- new budget, getting a grip on govt. expenditure
    2- General Election, our spineless reactive govt need to be replaced and fast by people who are willing to make hard proactive decisions and be unpopular
    3-world markets stabilise, at least if world markets stabilise we will at least see some of thes benefits here with inflows of business & increases in international trade.

    problems-
    how can massive public sector bill be adequately trimmed?
    where will future job creation here come from?
    inadequate educational system, anyone who thinks otherwise is deluded, we are poor at languages, weak at sciences & engineering, in a global economy these are vital.
     
  4. rabbit

    rabbit Guest

    The day will come when nobody will lend the Irish govt more money to featherbed them....why should they when they are the most overpaid in the world ?

    I suggest we emigrate to open Irish pubs in China.

    true
     
  5. Towger

    Towger Frequent Poster

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    2,137
    Where can you buy seed potatos at the right price.
     
  6. z103

    z103 Guest

    Potatoes would probably be a good crop. If you have land that you can easily guard. Very good nutrition.

    If you get normal potatoes and chop them into thirds or quarters, this might work. Probably not as good or disease resistant as seed potatoes.

    (I got my last batch of seed potatoes at a garden centre.)
     
  7. Ron Burgundy

    Ron Burgundy Frequent Poster

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    759
    Really, can i donate to your ticket..........;)
     
  8. rabbit

    rabbit Guest

    Touche....Shure why not put your money where your mouth is and I will go out on an exploratory fact finding mission first, travelling " FAS" class of course....if its good enough for our public servants t'is good enough for me ..........;)
     
  9. liaconn

    liaconn Frequent Poster

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    530
    Rabbit

    No matter what the topic of a thread, if it mentions the word 'recession' you turn it into another opportunity to bash the public sector. I thought this had been banned.I can't understand why you haven't been as well.
     
  10. cole

    cole Frequent Poster

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    144
    The recent OECD report states that "just two countries, Greece and the Slovak Republic, spend a smaller proportion of their GDP on education than Ireland does. While spending on education here has increased in recent years, when it is taken as a proportion of GDP it has actually fallen."

    Here we go again...yawn.
     
  11. cole

    cole Frequent Poster

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    144
    It doesn't even have to have recession in it for rabbit to start his predictable public sector bashing. I've added rabbit to my ignore list.
     
  12. Superman

    Superman Frequent Poster

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    599
    If that's the case, we might as well give up hope now.
     
  13. UptheDeise

    UptheDeise Frequent Poster

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    What to do?

    Well stocking up is very good idea, tinned foods, high in protein like tuna or salmon say.
    Also stock up on tobacco as people will want this.
    You may need to get a gun as security will become an issue. If you live in a working class area like I do maybe two? the working class areas will be abandon by the law and they will become no go areas. 99% of peopel who live in WC are sound people BTW.
    To preserve your wealth invest in gold and silver perhaps.
    Learn mandrin chinese because the 21st century will belong to China.
    Get to know all your rights under Irish law. As the civil unrest kicks off martial law will be declared and you could end up on the wrong end of the law accidentally. But if we have martial law your civil liberties and human rights will more than likely be suspended.
    Also be aware that the Lisbon treaty will be passed. Did you know that the death penalty is permissable under this treaty under certain conditions like civil unrest and rioting?
    Finally, say your prays.
     
  14. DublinTexas

    DublinTexas Frequent Poster

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    299
    Great ideas.

    My last shop included long term goods in cans already, the check out lady who knows me looked very worried about that.

    My local superintend has still a couple of weeks left to deceide if he wants to approve my request for a shotgun

    Now where can I lean more about my rights in case of marial law. But than again as the army is on strike too it's anyhow everybody for himself.

    I'm not really for praying but I think I just migth be convinced to (re)join some organised religon.
     
  15. bamboozle

    bamboozle Frequent Poster

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    538

    anyone who thinks there is no need to reduce public sector expenditure has not got a grasp of reality. we've gone from public sector expenditure of 4 billion in 2000 to 19 billion in 2007- its hardly rocket science to identify public sector expenditure as an area which needs to be urgently addressed. This is not public sector bashing this is harsh reality.
     
  16. Calico

    Calico Frequent Poster

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    331
    Is this thread for real? People buying tinned food and keeping guns?
     
  17. DublinTexas

    DublinTexas Frequent Poster

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    Well let's see, 25% umemployed that can't get their payments because the public/civil servants are on strike (20% of the workforce) plus Dublin Bus not longer going hindering another 20% from going to work with the Gardai on blue flue and the defence forces not stepping in because they don't want to cross a picket line following by the goverment not longer being able to borrow money internationaly and the "super rich" having left the country.

    So what do you think? Woudn't you want a gun to protect yourself from the food riots.

    The only reason we are not currently as bad in shape as Iceland is that we are part of the EU zone and we hope that Germany is (once again) bailing us out.

    The only reason we don't see violent demonstrations as in Greece is that we are still hoping the socialism is working and everything will be fixed.

    What we need are actions from the goverment and a fair distribution of the burden.
     
  18. Bronte

    Bronte Frequent Poster

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    Rabbit I've just noticed you're banned so how come you can post?
     
  19. bamboozle

    bamboozle Frequent Poster

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    have you not got a gun yet??:)
     
  20. Fingalian

    Fingalian Frequent Poster

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