Government appoints experts to consult on indebtedness

[LDFerguson]

There's a funny quote in that same Indo article from some 'financial adviser' called Liam Ferguson. I'm glad he's not on any panel of 'experts'!

Sorry Coles. Brendan Burgess might be willing to answer criticism about his "real-world" reputation, personal shareholdings, advice etc., from anonymous posters on this board, even though he doesn't know what some of their motivations or personal interests are.

But I'm not.

 

[Dave Vanian]

This thread amuses me. For the benefit of those who don't already know, many of the critics of Brendan Burgess on this thread are regulars on another financial website, The Property Pin. The Property Pin was set up some years ago by a group of Askaboutmoney posters who got thrown off this board for repeated breaches of posting guidelines. Rather than simply letting it go and moving on like adults, they set up their own board and have spent literally years slagging Brendan off and trying to make out that he's some sort of evil genius out of an Austin Power movie.

Quotes from the Property Pin: -

"Come on, lads - into the breach." (Encouraging Property Pin regulars to post on an AAM thread.)

"F***ing moron." (Intelligent criticism of David Duffy on hearing he is on the debt committee.)

"He might know about trackers but he knows f*** all about honesty and being fair. Pri**" (Intelligent criticism of Brendan Burgess.)

"I emailed Pat Kenny's programme about this and included some posts from Brendan. I suggest others do the same if they get a chance. Nothing may come of it but you'd never know and it would be great to get this c*** [DV - rhymes with "stunt"] sacked before this group even gets started."

Now if someone published stuff like that about my real name, while hiding behind anonymity, my lawyers would have the site shut down in less than one working day. But Brendan is obviously a bigger man than me as he never bothered. Or maybe he knows that nobody reads it anyway.

But when some of them (you know who you are) start to come over to Askaboutmoney, which people actually read, I think that the motivations need to be exposed. They're just sad little people who have been trying to have a go at Brendan Burgess for years, since they were thrown out of his site.

Seriously - lads - grow up and let it go. In the final analysis, Brendan Burgess will be remembered as a man who did a huge amount of hard and unpaid work to help real people in the real world, through his years of consumer campaigning and through Askaboutmoney. Your little virtual club of Askaboutmoney rejects won't be remembered for anything except online negativity.

 

[Dave Vanian]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

However, I do find it odd - and forgive me if I'm misreading people - that a public figure, who has been appointed to a government body based partly on their leadership of this forum, cannot be criticised in an adult manner based on things they have said on this forum or, or indeed, elsewhere in the media.

I believe Brendan Burgess is as much open to criticism as the next man. But I also believe that some fairness must apply. Suggesting that he's incompetent because he openly admits that he didn't predict the price crash is unfair unless we have proof that the person doing the criticising actually did predict the crash. As distinct from revising their story after the event. And I discount economists who predicted a property price crash for many years before it happened. If you keep on predicting the fall or rise in any asset class, eventually you'll be right.

I also consider any negative reference to Brendan's personal finances unfair unless again we know the same information about the person making the reference.

 

[UFC]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

This is an example of what I'm talking about. UFC chooses to be anonymous and criticises Brendan because he didn't predict the property crash, thus inferring that he (UFC) was somehow able to predict it.

Yet we have no way of knowing whether or not this is valid. For all we know, UFC predicted double-digit growth in Irish property prices in 2009, but can now change his tune to suit an argument.

It doesn't matter what you think of me or who I am, what's important is Brendan was unable to see and (more importantly) was unable to heed the advice of economists who said we were in the middle of an obvious bubble.

So we have:

1) an inability to accurately analyse the economy.
2) an inability to open his mind to opinions he doesn't agree with.

Both of these are a very dangerous combination and makes me worried he is going to be able to influence billions of our tax money.

You have to put aside your like of Askaboutmoney and Brendan and think of what's best for Ireland.

 

[Dave Vanian]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

It doesn't matter what you think of me or who I am, what's important is Brendan was unable to see and (more importantly) was unable to heed the advice of economists who said we were in the middle of an obvious bubble.

The same economists who predicted nine out of the last two property crashes?

 

[Dave Vanian]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

Nobody had the courage to stand up to what was clearly a government/financial industry (note industry, not just banks!) to profit at the behest of the general public.

Did you?

 

[canicemcavoy]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

I believe Brendan Burgess is as much open to criticism as the next man. But I also believe that some fairness must apply. Suggesting that he's incompetent because he openly admits that he didn't predict the price crash is unfair unless we have proof that the person doing the criticising actually did predict the crash. As distinct from revising their story after the event. And I discount economists who predicted a property price crash for many years before it happened. If you keep on predicting the fall or rise in any asset class, eventually you'll be right.

It's possible for a doctor to predict that if you keep eating high amounts of saturated fat food, you will eventually have a heart attack due to clogged arteries. Just because they can't predict the exact date on which this will happen, doesn't make an incorrect or worthless prediction.

On the same lines, it is possible to predict that in an economy where house prices keep rising way over the corresponding average increase in incomes, while the growth in jobs outside of construction is static, there is what is commonly known as a property bubble and eventually there will be a problem. Discounting this opinion is as unwise as discounting the aforementioned doctor.

(Bubble economists such as Marc Coleman could only come out with statements such as "there will be high population growth" to support the bubble. Based on this theory, most of Africa should be thriving by now. But never mind, the best is yet to come.)

You discredit all economists who predicted a property crash based on the fact that "it was years ago". Do you give credit to ecomomists who got it entirely wrong? Are there any economists whose opinions you thought were worthy of examination?

 

[Sunny]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

Both of these are a very dangerous combination and makes me very worried he will be able to influence billions of our tax money.

He is not exactly going to be Minister of Finance. He is one part of a panel that if history is to be repeated will do up a report and will then be ignored.

So what if he did or didn't get it right on property prices? Are we saying that only people who called the crisis can have any influence on any sort of Government policy in this Country going forward?

 

[jhegarty]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

On the same lines, it is possible to predict that in an economy where house prices keep rising way over the corresponding average increase in incomes, while the growth in jobs outside of construction is static, there is what is commonly known as a property bubble and eventually there will be a problem. Discounting this opinion is as unwise as discounting the aforementioned doctor.

All very easy to predict now isn't it.

 

[Dave Vanian]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

It doesn't matter what you think of me or who I am...

Actually it matters an awful lot. For all we know, you could be criticising Brendan because

(a) you have a vested interest in this committee not having Brendan Burgess on it.

(b) you have a large financial interest in property which is served by your arguments

Etc.

As I said, you could have been predicting double-digit Irish property increases in 2009 for all we know.

 

[UFC]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

He is not exactly going to be Minister of Finance. He is one part of a panel that if history is to be repeated will do up a report and will then be ignored.

So what if he did or didn't get it right on property prices? Are we saying that only people who called the crisis can have any influence on any sort of Government policy in this Country going forward?

I agree with you that there is a good chance their findings will be ignored, but they may not be, and that is why I think this is serious. And we're talking about 1,000,000,000+ euros at play here.

His inability to see we were in an bubble and his inability to listen to other people's opinions are the exact sorts of reasons why this country is screwed. Therefore I do not believe maintaining the status quo is the right thing to do. Let's get real experts, i.e. people who have a basic understanding of economics and who have an open mind, and who certainly aren't tainted with the "vested interest" label.

 

[canicemcavoy]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

All very easy to predict now isn't it.

I presume that's sarcasm; indeed, sometimes it is the cheapest form of wit.

It just goes to show that with some people, unless an economist had actually predicted the property crash to the exact month and day, will never be satisfied. That somehow, everything was fine with the Irish economy until 2008 ("the fundamentals are sound"), and then suddenly overnight everything went wrong. If you believe that, then further communication is impossible since our axioms are entirely at odds.

 

[ontour]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

............was unable to heed the advice of economists who said we were in the middle of an obvious bubble.

It is easy to pick the winning horse after the race. Identifying the economists that were right as the ones that should have been heeded as opposed to all the economists who got it wrong undermines the understanding of the high level of risk and volatility in markets. It is not simple to read, if it was you would take every penny you have and back those economist's next prediction.

The challenge for Brendan, going forward(!!), is to utilise the collective input from this forum and other sources to give real world input to the discussion and decisions on debt management. He has one view which should not be overly weighted just because he owns this site. Over the last few months input and suggestions regarding debt issues have been gathered which I believe demonstrates Brendan's willingness to listen to a variety of perspectives.

 

[UFC]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

Actually it matters an awful lot. For all we know, you could be criticising Brendan because

(a) you have a vested interest in this committee not having Brendan Burgess on it.

(b) you have a large financial interest in property which is served by your arguments

Etc.

As I said, you could have been predicting double-digit Irish property increases in 2009 for all we know.

OK, I am someone who has been crying out for about 5 years that we are in the middle of a ginormous property bubble.

I do not own property, although I could if I wanted to (and probably will when the market returns to a more stable level).

 

[UFC]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

It is easy to pick the winning horse after the race. Identifying the economists that were right as the ones that should have been heeded as opposed to all the economists who got it wrong undermines the understanding of the high level of risk and volatility in markets. It is not simple to read, if it was you would take every penny you have and back those economist's next prediction.

I work in IT yet I could see the prices people were paying for property made no sense. All you had to do was write the numbers down on a piece of paper and you could see property prices were totally out of whack with people's salaries.

But anyway, I don't expect everyone to get it, but I do expect our experts to get it.

But of course, this is Ireland, so I am being stupid and naive to expect our experts to be of a high standard.

 

[canicemcavoy]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

It is easy to pick the winning horse after the race.

Some of us didn't think of it as a horse race, or choosing a favourite economist like the way people choose a football team. Some of us didn't think it was that much crack, incidentally. I had many rows with my late father because he thought that not buying a house in the mid 00s was the worst mistake I had ever made.

 

[Sunny]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

I agree with you that there is a good chance their findings will be ignored, but they may not be, and that is why I think this is serious. And we're talking about XX,000,000,000+ euros.

His inability to see we were in an bubble and his inability to listen to other people's opinions are the exact sort of reasons why this country is screwed. Therefore I do not think maintaining the status quo is right for Ireland.

The Government is not going to announce a multi billion euro bail out plan for householders in negative equity. Why the hell would you think they would?

What is link between his views on house prices and helping people deal with personal debt?

 

[UFC]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

The Government is not going to announce a multi billion euro bail out plan for householders in negative equity. Why the hell would you think they would?

I assume that's sarcasm, but if not, you do realise we are talking about FF here? Lords of the bailout. You are incorrectly assuming they will do the right thing.

What is link between his views on house prices and helping people deal with personal debt?

I am repeating myself now, but his inability to see what was staring him in the face (a bubble) and his inability to listen to people who have differing viewpoints (even now he thinks those with differing viewpoints - McWilliams, Kelly - are hysterical, even though they have been mostly correct so far) suggests he may not make decisions which are good enough (by my standards) for Ireland.

 

[Dave Vanian]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

...and who certainly aren't tainted with the "vested interest" label.

Again with the "vested interest" argument. It's just too unbalanced. The previous opinions of all the committee members are a matter of public record and can be brought up again and again. But those accusing them of vested interests can apparently do so with impunity as their own track record or circumstances cannot be verified.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

He is one part of a panel that if history is to be repeated will do up a report and will then be ignored.

I don't want to comment on the expert group, but I think that this is a mistaken view of what we will be doing.

from the press release

These experts will work within Government and present their recommendations on a rolling basis to the Minister for Finance, for consideration by Government. The work will commence immediately.

My understanding of this is that we are not going to talk for 18 months and then write a report.

We will be making recommendations on a rolling basis which is very different from producing a report a long time later.

It is not my job to discuss how we will function, but I would guess that we will be open to ideas from every source - the media and discussion forums like Askaboutmoney, IrishEconomy.ie and The Property Pin.