Census 2022 - interesting housing stats

ClubMan said:
www.thejournal.ie

Census 2022 at a glance: A rundown of Ireland's big count

The Central Statistics Office has released preliminary data about Ireland’s population and housing.
www.thejournal.ie www.thejournal.ie
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I would imagine that the 48000 would include a lot of houses from the crash. There are other statistics that put vacant properties which have electricity water as a minimum between 95000 and 120,000, again the details of these houses are scant.

But overall it's a significant number but as usual finding out why these properties are vacant is almost impossible.
 
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Forgive my ignorance, but is a holiday home “vacant” or a temporarily vacant house in Ireland where the owners spend a few months in Portugal?
 
Gordon Gekko said:
Forgive my ignorance, but is a holiday home “vacant” or a temporarily vacant house in Ireland where the owners spend a few months in Portugal?
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It certainly includes the latter i.e. houses that are temporarily vacant for whatever reason (incl. between rental, up for sale etc;) not sure if it includes holiday homes. Someone from the CSO on the radio yesterday was quite clear on that but I don't recall what he said about holiday homes.
 
Peanuts said:
It certainly includes the latter i.e. houses that are temporarily vacant for whatever reason (incl. between rental, up for sale etc;) not sure if it includes holiday homes. Someone from the CSO on the radio yesterday was quite clear on that but I don't recall what he said about holiday homes.
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They really didn't say in detail what was included, or I didn't hear it.

LPT receipts were received from 1836000 properties in 2021, not everyone is liable for LPT and the above represent 98% , will check that, so its reasonable to say the figures are a bit " all over the place " .
 
More clarity in the CSO's Press Release.

“The Preliminary Results show that the total housing stock on 03 April 2022 was 2,124,590, an increase of 6.0% on the 2016 figure.

There were 16,560 fewer vacant dwellings (-9.0%) in 2022 compared to 2016.

This does not include holiday homes, of which there were 66,135, compared with 62,148 in 2016.

A dwelling being classified as vacant for census purposes does not necessarily imply that it is available for re-use.

Census vacancy is essentially a point in time measure which may be different to other reported measures of vacancy which may focus more on longer term vacancy.

A dwelling is classed as vacant by census enumerators if it is unoccupied for a short or long period around Census night. For example, it may be unoccupied because it is up for sale or rent, under renovation, or if the owner has passed away, or is in a nursing home.

Dwellings under construction and derelict properties are also not included in the Census count of vacant dwellings.”
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I also note from the CSO's graphic that the highest %age of vacant homes is in Co. Leitrim at 16%. (1 in 6).
 
Paul O Mahoney said:
I would imagine that the 48000 would include a lot of houses from the crash.
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Seamus Coffey has comprehensively rebutted this theory, in a twitter thread this morning. https://twitter.com/seamuscoffey/status/1540250805739159553?s=20&t=-gDuebrkuNrFzVbOVdYUhg
Here's what he said:

Will the findings from #Census2022 dispel the myth that vacant units offer a substantial solution to Ireland’s housing woes?
The results show that there is very little long-term vacancy in areas with the highest demand. Here is share of housing stock vacant in 2016 and 2022.

Yes, on Census night Dublin had c.30k units that were vacant but this mainly reflects natural churn rather than long-term vacancy.

70% of those vacant units were occupied in 2016. And most of the units that were vacant in 2016 were found to be occupied in 2022.

Of Dublin’s 30k vacant units, 4k were for sale, 5k were being renovated, 3k were vacant because the resident(s) were in hospital/care, 3k because the resident was recently deceased and 1k were new builds awaiting their first occupation. Majority will be occupied by Census 2027.

Dublin had 9k rental units that were vacant on Census night. This is around 5% of its rental stock (c.175k units). Represents churn between lettings and most will be re-occupied. Also includes around 1k temporarily vacant social housing units owned by the four local authorities.

After these legitimate (and temporary) reasons for vacancy on Census night there were around 6k units in Dublin that were vacant for other/unknown reasons. Some may have gone in the above categories had it been possible to determine the reason for their vacancy.

On long-term vacancy, Dublin had just 1,335 livable units (0.2% of 2022 stock) that were vacant in each recent census – 2011, 2016 and 2022. In contrast, Mayo had 2,171 (3.2% of its 2022 stock) that were vacant in each census. /end
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Paul O Mahoney said:
but as usual finding out why these properties are vacant is almost impossible.
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From the detailed analysis I have seen today and yesterday, this is simply untrue.
 
But is this data “accurate data”, or a case of “garbage in, garbage out”?

I can think of lots of people who have holiday homes in Ireland and who spend time in Portugal or Spain, particularly earlier in the year when the Census was on.

Are those homes “vacant” or not?

Are the homes of elderly people in nursing homes “vacant” or not?

“Vacant homes” conjures up images of swathes of ghost estate properties.

Is the narrative actually nonsense?
 
From the CSO website:

A dwelling is classed as vacant by census enumerators if it is unoccupied on Census night, is not used as a holiday home and is not usually inhabited by occupants who are temporarily absent at the time of census.

The Census definition of a vacant dwelling is a point in time indicator taken on Census night as to whether the property was inhabited or not on Sunday 03 April 2022.

Census vacancy should not be used as a measure of long term vacancy or compared directly with vacancy figures produced by other sources which may use different definitions or methodology.

The Census vacancy definition has been used over several censuses which enables comparisons over time.
 
T McGibney said:
Seamus Coffey has comprehensively rebutted this theory, in a twitter thread this morning. https://twitter.com/seamuscoffey/status/1540250805739159553?s=20&t=-gDuebrkuNrFzVbOVdYUhg
Here's what he said:




From the detailed analysis I have seen today and yesterday, this is simply untrue.
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Yet RTE had Lorcan Sirr on Moaning Ireland this morning ignoring and he didn't seem to know any of this, even though he's a lecturer and head of research for the Faculty of the Built Environment in TUD. It's almost as if he was ignoring the facts in order to further an ideological agenda. He might be a great guy but I've no respect for his opinions on housing and housing policy.
 
In other words if there is no answer to a knock and/or they can't get a completed form back the Census Enumerator ticks a Vacant Box
 
Towger said:
In other words if there is no answer to a knock and/or they can't get a completed form back the Census Enumerator ticks a Vacant Box
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I believe they are meant to enquire why there is no answer - neighbours, etc. It is more than just a "vacant" box - they have to indicate why it is vacant, eg, resident in Nursing Home, recently deceased, etc. Whether this always happens exhaustively I have no idea.
 
Early Riser said:
I believe they are meant to enquire why there is no answer - neighbours, etc. It is more than just a "vacant" box - they have to indicate why it is vacant, eg, resident in Nursing Home, recently deceased, etc. Whether this always happens exhaustively I have no idea.
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I was one of these (apartment in da shmoke) and I was out of the country on that night. I did answer my door and she assured me that she does not need any more information except that I was not in the dwelling on said night.
 
elcato said:
I was one of these (apartment in da shmoke) and I was out of the country on that night. I did answer my door and she assured me that she does not need any more information except that I was not in the dwelling on said night.
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Mea Culpa.
It was an informal rather than formal part of the 2016 Census. Enumerators were asked to try to ascertain the reason for any vacancy and and to make a note of it. The results were very incomplete and publised as "supplementary analysis" - towards the lower end of this webpage: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp1hii/cp1hii/vac/ .

I don't know what approach may have been taken this time, but analysis of this (if any) will be in the late stages. Next year maybe.
I saw the enumerator call numerous times to houses around here and he did ask me about a neighbouring property.
 
elcato said:
I was one of these (apartment in da shmoke) and I was out of the country on that night. I did answer my door and she assured me that she does not need any more information except that I was not in the dwelling on said night.
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She was supposed to ask you where you'd be, link that to the entry for your dwelling, and mark you as "away" but not the property as vacant. Vacant properties are exactly that, not dwellings normally occupied but where the residents are away on census night.
 
There's been some interesting reporting in the SBP lately that suggests that Revenue investigations by Revenue based on ESB meter data are showing the figures for "vacant homes" to be far beneath the 200k or so often claims by leftist housing activists.

From October - seems that the figure would be closer to around 25,000 properties, and not 200,000.
Now it seems Revenue investigated 50,000 potential cases, of which 5000 were declared as vacant, 45000 occupied by the owners. After 2000 of the 5000 actually vacant claimed exemptions it seems that just 3000 are liable for the vacancy tax.

So is this just a canard or is there genuinely a problem with vacancy/dereliction?
To be fair around the corner from me there are at least 3 or 4 derelict properties, 2 fully boarded up, and 2 that are down as offices for a developer, but don't seem to have activity. Notwithstanding a large amount of homes with residents in a nursing home or awaiting probate or sale, how severe is this? And is it, as some claim, "enough" to "solve" the housing crisis?
 
So much missing data.

We need to actually walk the streets and count and classify every house.
 
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