Brendan and David McWilliams on LateLateShow 26/Oct/12

monagt said:
Its not a question of being right ALL the time but being right MORE OFTEN that the rest of of "knowledgeable" commentators.

He called the bust!

If I had listened to DMcW from the start I would be a richer man today.
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He called the bust in 1998 almost a decade too early. If you rented then as he advised you would be worse off today. A stopped clock is right twice a day, McWilliams was right in 2003.

He was off the wall when he advised that we should insure Anglo's deposits ("international insurers would bite our hands off for such a large amount of business") and then we should default and collect the insurance money.:(

He was under the influence of garlic when he called the blanket guarantee a "masterstroke".:mad:

He was having a deposit selling moment when he said the IBRC should walk away from its ELA. Goddammit the ELA is owned by our central bank, we was recommending defaulting on ourselves:eek:

I could go on. Seems to me he was right once - even that stopped clock scores twice.:D

He is wrong now about defaulting on our obligations, about mass debt forgiveness to stimulate the economy and that those on Tracker mortgages will be the next catastrophe.
 
I am no fan of McWilliams's pop culture economics and I have yet to see Friday's LL Show so will comment further when I do.

I was listening to the MF show this morning and it seems, from what one of the panel were saying, is that we are looking at total callapse in 3 years time.

Call me negative but the folks that are on their high horse seem convinced that they are immune from the after-effects of 100,000 people potentially losing their home.

1) Where will they be housed?
2) Potential Social Unrest?
3) House prices plummeting further?

The list goes on.
 
Wishes said:
1) Where will they be housed?
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No one is saying that we should demolish houses or apartments if people can not afford their mortgage. The housing stock still exists. They may end up renting their current house or somewhere else. The goal is to release people from debt that they will never be able to pay. I am at a complete loss as to why this is being perceived as cruel, begrudgery or unfair.

Wishes said:
2) Potential Social Unrest?
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When would there be general social unrest if people with totally insustainable debt are given a way out. It is more likely that there would be social unrest if the state pardoned debts but left individuals with the assets.

Wishes said:
3) House prices plummeting further?
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Artificial house prices and interference is part of the reason we got into this mess. The market is in limbo, more transactions is good for the economy so let's stop interfering with supply by not enabling sales.

It would appear that those that did not go 'all in' on the property market are willing to accept that there will be a cost to them to assist their fellow country people who are in desperate financial circumstances. It would appear from this thread that many believe that those who took the gamble, and lost, should not also accept that there will be a cost.
 
I think David McWilliams did an excellant job on the Late Late. When will the powers that be realise that there are a percentage of mortgages that will NEVER be repaid. People who are not in trouble dont want to pick up the tab for those that cant pay but whether they like it or not they will have to pay someday. The people with impossible mortgages will be made bankrupt, the bank will have to write off the full loan and the bank will go back to the taxpayer for more money anyway.
 
I just watched it and didn't think Brendan did too badly. Ryan Tubridy was a bit biased and patronising but then he always is. David McWilliams made good points but I'm not sure what his answer to austerity is. For distressed mortgages the answer probably lies somewhere between the two points of view. There are some people out there who may have a legitimate case for some kind of debt forgiveness, or forbearance, but there can't be a policy of it.
 
Sooner rather than later the banks are going to have to deal with the mortgage arrears and make a decision about each customer. Unless there is some sort of policy its going to be difficult to achieve a level of fairness. If its left to individual banks or bankers some people will get great deals and others will suffer badly
 
All hail David McWilliams.........
This week, Mr Celente will be in Dublin giving a talk in the Gibson Hotel and ahead of his visit he shared some interesting thoughts on what lies ahead in 2013 and beyond.

"Ireland is heading the same way as the rest of Europe -- down. Why would it get any better when you are imposing austerity, cutting pensions, raising taxes and making people work till they are dead? Ireland had its option to walk away from the EU -- but didn't. The people voted in the austerity coalition government -- are they into sadomasochism? Sadly people often get what they deserve."
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Irish Independent......29-10-12
 
Daddy said:
Debt for equity is a good idea and would help all families in trouble by halving the debt and halving the responsibility and both the lender and borrower take a hit they will probably be able to manage. David was right 9 years ago and families are in big trouble and this idea while not David's only would be a start and give hope to people.
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I don't understand the '9 years ago' reference. Ironically, 9 years ago (and indeed up to about 18 months ago), Hall was big supporter of Brian Lenihan in Dublin West - the man who walked us into this mess in 2008 by signing up for the unlimited bank guarantee. It's a pity that Hall didn't use his influence to avoid the problem arising in the first place, instead of waiting till the problem exploded and expecting others to pay to clean up the mess.
 
monagt said:
All hail David McWilliams.........
Irish Independent......29-10-12
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Monagt yes David (come back all is forfgiven) is a tonic compared to this guy. According to this doomsayer it really doesn't matter about our petty problems we are heading straight into WWIII and pretty soon at that.

Why do the media lap up the doomsayers so much?:mad: There does seem to be a streak of sado-machism in the tabloid readership that likes to live through disaster movies.
 
Complainer said:
I don't understand the '9 years ago' reference. Ironically, 9 years ago (and indeed up to about 18 months ago), Hall was big supporter of Brian Lenihan in Dublin West - the man who walked us into this mess in 2008 by signing up for the unlimited bank guarantee. It's a pity that Hall didn't use his influence to avoid the problem arising in the first place, instead of waiting till the problem exploded and expecting others to pay to clean up the mess.
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Hi Complainer

The reference is to DAvid McWilliams and not David Hall, both of whom were on the show. The show started with a clip of McWilliams from 2003 saying that house prices were a scam.
 
About the eviction in Dundalk. Yes that's the protest I was at. The sheriff was Mairead Ahern sister in law of Dermot Ahern former minister for justice. I doubt very much there was any funny business around her appointment. We went out to her house in Blackrock stunning palatial spread overlooking the sea. In contrast Eugene was dragged out of a quite small apartment in the town.

The lender has been bailed out and therefore been paid. The door was smashed in and the guy was physically assaulted and dragged out. What your missing here is at no point did he refuse to pay. You still believe in the idea that the bank should be paid more than once.

I don't there is nothing childish or wrong with that you want to punish people and see more evictions and I want love peace and goodwill to all men.

The idea that there will be social unrest one way or the other is kind of pointless, compared to Greece Spain or London we are not moving.

I think the social cost will be much more suttle. Sucide, cancer that kind of thing. The idea that debt write downs would bring the begrudgers on the street is laughable. Food poverty isn't bringing people out!!
 
I agree PiedPier.

I believe there are very few in a comfortable position and the few that are stilling on top wont get up off their cozy chairs to protest so I think we can all rest assure there.

What do you mean, when you say Eugene did not refuse to pay? What was he paying?
 
This is a Prime Time appearance by DMcW to remind people of his position, 4 years before the bubble burst - RTE Prime Time -16 October 2003

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxtkjZFfuZI

Watch DMcW and judge for yourselves.

No connection and don't really like him............
 
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http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepag...iffs-came-and-threw-me-out-on-the-street.html

Thank god someone agrees with me!!

What is he paying, what is anyone paying, maybe the penny dropped with him even if he starved even if he bent till he broke the outcome would be the same and the system isnt working, it's time for change.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNxRwaF6iyo

With love and respect Mugga would you not be way better off being less concerned with what others have and more concerned about sucide rates, and the damage this horrible mess is going to do to the future generations of Irish people. Look around you its like the end of the world shops closing, business closing. I was in a house the other day and we had such a laugh that they were Dunnes Biscuits and not Lidl!!

I would say you could count on one hand the number of Irish families in trouble with their mortgages with bank account abroad, I don’t know of any families facing eviction with properties abroad. Of course it is possible but if they are in any of the usual locations like Spain or Bulgaria chances are they are worthless and a problem too.

Don't be buying into the old spin it’s destructive there must be a positive way forward based on kindness and fairness.

If we are going to move on and move past this and build a Sovereign Ireland to be proud of its my view that the best place to start is not with 20,000 homeless families.
 
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I agree with you PiedPiper.
I really do wonder what it will take to get Irish people out on the streets to protest at what these incompetent politicians are doing to our country.
Its time we stopped being selfish and we start to support each other. Lets work together to get debt write down for all - by refusing to pay back the Germans and other foreign banks. How poor do we have to get before we stand up to these guys.
Our top four politicians, who are supposed to be fighting our cause, are three schoolteachers and a trade unionist !! They may be good teachers but I would not hire a teacher to run a large corporation like Ireland. You get people qualified to do the job. These guys haven't a clue and are advised by people under them who have never been in business. What hope have we with such a bunch of incompetents. We have no choice as a people to protest and get our message across.
It is said we are all "drummed down" and too lazy to get out and work at this. Everybody stays stuck indoors glued to either Sky sports or all these mindless reality TV shows. Simon Cowell has a lot to answer for!
What do others think?
 
Beatthebanks said:
Its time we stopped being selfish and we start to support each other.
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Who is being selfish?

Beatthebanks said:
Lets work together to get debt write down for all - by refusing to pay back the Germans and other foreign banks.
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What money are you suggesting we refuse to repay, the EU bailout? Are you suggesting that this can be done and we stay in the Eurozone/ EU?

Why should there be a debt write down for all? It is like saying that everyone who plays the lotto this week should win the jackpot, it would be great but it is pure dream land.

If you look at the losses that NIB announced, much of it is dues to commercial loans, I would guess that the situation is similar in the state supported institutions. The money pumped in to the banks has not paid off everyone's mortgage, the banks are still dependent on the majority of mortgage holders paying their debt for the banks to survive.
 
Beatthebanks said:
Lets work together to get debt write down for all - by refusing to pay back the Germans and other foreign banks.
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Why should everyone get a write down? Plenty of people borrowed responsibily and plenty of people are only in temporary problems that will correct themselves when the economy gets back on its feet that would be better helped with a holiday from their mortgage or an extended interest only period.

Also what are you suggesting we dont pay back? Bank bonds or government bonds. Ill agree anglo shouldnt have been paid back but to suggest not paying back bonds on banks that are trying to keep operating wont work.

You think when we stop paying bank bonds, our banks close because they cant fund themselves and our mortgages become property of german banks well be treated better?

A hair cut maybe but all out not paying wont end well

Beatthebanks said:
Our top four politicians, who are supposed to be fighting our cause, are three schoolteachers and a trade unionist !! They may be good teachers but I would not hire a teacher to run a large corporation like Ireland. You get people qualified to do the job.
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We voted them in. Thats kinda how it works

What a soapbox rant
 
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