I think it is - I think they might be the only investable banks in the whole EU....Poland perhaps is a close 2nd....pretty consolidated market there too but not many get anywhere near the level of consolidation and deposit concentration such as the Irish banks in a country with low political risk (despite what you read in da papers!)
In terms of the inability to take custody of an asset in default - its just another barrier to entry for a competitor.....nobody likes hotel california situations with their lending book.....but the real barrier IMO was demonstrated during the uptick in European wide mortgage rates.....the deposit beta in Ireland (the need to pass through interest rate increases to retain deposits) was essentially non-existent here because of the deposit franchise these guys have.....in return for that low deposit beta...the Irish banks took very modest mortgage rate increases..we've seen the graphs we went quickly from having some of the highest rates in Europe to being in the bottom third....you could argue they were doing it knowing that they'd be in the political windfall tax crosshairs if they didnt pass on rate increases to depositors but totally slammed mortgage holders.....being more nuanced I think they didnt do it because they are NEVER letting their duopoly position go again.......if they keep mortgage rates relatively low here...they maximize their funding cost advantage......and it creates a relatively unattractive market to enter for a foreign competitor.
They would be wise to generate a 15% RoE through the cycle and no more......they've got a good thing going in the Irish market.....to over-earn here would be to put a target on their back from a domestic poltical perspective but also to attract foreign competitors back in.
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