Key Post 87% of mortgages still being paid on schedule at Sept 2011

[Brendan Burgess]

[broken link removed] as at 30 September 2011 just published by the Central Bank

|at 30/9/2011 ||at 30/6/2011||30/9/2010|

Mortgages on schedule |674,000|87%|682,000|88%
Restructured mortgages not in arrears|36,000|5%|39,000|5%
Mortgages in arrears over 90 days | 63,000|8%|56,000|7%|40,000|5%
Total mortgages|773,000||777,000||789,000|

Notes
Around 10% of homes have two or mortgage accounts, so around 56,000 families are in arrears.
"Mortgages on schedule" includes mortgage which are less than 90 days in arrears

Total number of repossession over last 24 months i.e. 1/10/2009 - 30/9/2011

Repossessed by court order|275|1 per 2,500
Surrendered or abandoned|665|1 per 1,0000

Others will have sold their home under pressure from their lender without being formally repossessed.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Restructured Mortgages

These include those in arrears and those which are not in arrears

less than interest only|10,312|
payment moratorium|2,818|
Total less than interest only||13,130
Paying at least the interest||56,605
Total restructured||69,735

Not in any arrears|36,376
In arrears greater than 0 days|32,999
Total restructured|69,735

The Central Bank's restructuring data is difficult to analyse or understand
For example it gives separate figures for "term extension" and "reduced payment" which is effectively the same thing.

 

[Booter]

Restructured Mortgages


The Central Bank's restructuring data is difficult to analyse or understand
For example it gives separate figures for "term extension" and "reduced payment" which is effectively the same thing.

Brendan,

Not necessarily the same. (I think we've been here before

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?p=1197324#post1197324

 

[benji2006]

I think namawinelake pre-empted your title

When these figures are published, there is now a tradition of some commentator or other pointing out that although the figures in arrears is worrying, we shouldn’t forget that 90%+ of mortgage accounts are being repaid without incident in accordance with the terms of the loan. This viewpoint is to my mind akin to saying that we only had 11 homicides in Q3,2011 in Ireland and the vast majority of the 4.6m in the State wasn’t murdered, that there were 28 Tiger Kidnap offences but again 4.6m people weren’t kidnapped or that 630 people were sexually assaulted but most weren’t. There is a reason we concentrate on mortgage arrears, and on a human level it is because most represent difficult and worrying conditions for those affected and we don’t want a society where a large proportion of people face losing their homes. Economically it means those affected are unlikely to be spending in the economy and they are a drag on banks, which in turn affects credit availability in the economy.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Hi benji

I hadn't seen anyone else other than myself reporting it this way. I am delighted to hear that "some commentators" agree with me.

The extraordinary thing is that despite

• 14% unemployment
• reduced salaries for those in work
• Increased taxes for everyone
• widespread irresponsible lending
• and a 50% crash in house prices

only 8% of mortgages are in arrears over 90 days.


and there is less than one chance in 1,000 of someone losing their home.

 

[billybound]

I'd like to stay optimistic but my concern is at what cost(mind the pun) are they being paid. How many of these households have much left to spare for anything else after the basics such as food.

For one thing, increasing vat will prevent people spending so it will be interesting what the statistics will be next year.

 

[oldnick]

purely a question -

On average -trackers,fixed,variable - what are the interest rate falls since 2005-6 the peak house price period?

Seperate from those now unemployed , are those still in employment actually paying less for their mortgages today cf 2006 ?

 

[RMCF]

Hi benji

I hadn't seen anyone else other than myself reporting it this way. I am delighted to hear that "some commentators" agree with me.

The extraordinary thing is that despite

• 14% unemployment
• reduced salaries for those in work
• Increased taxes for everyone
• widespread irresponsible lending
• and a 50% crash in house prices

only 8% of mortgages are in arrears over 90 days.


and there is less than one chance in 1,000 of someone losing their home.

Brendan,

Considering these figures, which are surprising, why do you think so much time is spent on various media outlets portraying Ireland housing crisis as the worst thing that has ever happened this country?

Just that doom & gloom makes good news programming?

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Hi RMCF

When I point out that the repayments that most people are making now are far lower than when they took out their mortgage, no one wants to know.

You will probably see headlines such as "house reposessions up 50%" but they won't point out that there are virtually no repossessions among the mainstream lenders.

The popular anger is with the banks and when I say something like "We need profitable banks in this country", people often turn on me and accuse me of being a spokesperson for the banks.

The media loves people to accuse the banks of screwing the small person and conveniently ignore the fact that the banks have rescheduled 70,000 loans.

In general, we don't really do evidence-based analysis in this country.

 

[Swyper]

Considering these figures, which are surprising, why do you think so much time is spent on various media outlets portraying Ireland housing crisis as the worst thing that has ever happened this country?

Just that doom & gloom makes good news programming?

Don't just look at the numbers. Look at the trend. The rate of arrears is growing, and accelerating. At this rate we will be over 10% within 2 quarters.

 

[ClubMan]

In general, we don't really do evidence-based analysis in this country.

Hence my earlier point....

 

[z107]

and there is less than one chance in 1,000 of someone losing their home.

Losing one's home isn't a random event, so assigning a probability to it doesn't really make too much sense in this context.

The rate of change is important in this data. We can see the arrears increasing each six months. It will be interesting to see how Budget 2012 effects these figures and if the rate of increase goes up.

When I point out that the repayments that most people are making now are far lower than when they took out their mortgage, no one wants to know.

Yes, that certainly is worrying. Not too much scope for interest rate rises.

 

[CillianB]

Are there any comparable figures for mortgage arrears during the years preceding say 2010 ?
Presumably even through periods of economic prosperity there was a substantial percentage of mortgages and loans not being paid back as scheduled.
I wonder what porportion of that 8% of mortgages in arrears for over ninety days is made up of those whose inability/unwillingness to repay loans is not the result of the state of the economy and therefore not subject to extraordinary attention.