12,000 mortgages drawn down during Q2. Down 64% on last year

Press statement from the IBF

Over 12,000 mortgages drawn down during the second quarter of 2009

• Q2 shows seasonal pick-up over Q1
• First-time buyers account for 1 in 4 of all new mortgages
• Home purchaser segments increase market share

The IBF/PwC Mortgage Market Profile published today shows that 12,686 new mortgages to the value of some €2.2 billion were issued during the second quarter of 2009. This shows an increase in activity over the previous quarter in keeping with seasonal trends, as well as an increase to record levels in the share of overall activity for the main home purchaser segments of the market.
Although down by some 64% year on year, the volume of new lending in the second quarter (Q2) of 2009 is up 15.4% compared to the previous quarter – reflecting the seasonal pattern of stronger mortgage lending in the second quarter of the year. The following are among the key features of the Q2 2009 data.

• First-time buyers (FTBs) now account for 1 in 4 of all new mortgages issued. With a 25% share of the overall market by volume, they have consistently increased their market share over each of the last six quarters.
• The key home purchaser segments of the market – FTBs and Mover Purchasers – together now make up 60% of the total market by value.
• The Residential Investment Letting market continues to decline and is the only segment not to record a quarter on quarter increase.

Commenting on the data, IBF Chief Executive, Pat Farrell, stated:

“While the overall level of mortgage activity continues to reflect the very challenging economic environment, it is reassuring to see that those focused principally on home purchase, first-time buyers and mover purchasers, now have a record share of the total market – albeit a smaller market. By contrast, the investment end of the market continues to show the greatest decline.”

I calculate the long term sustainable annual requirement for new house building at 11,000pa based on these figures.

2010 will be the first year for about a decade that Ireland does not overbuild, albeit the excess of demand over supply will be about 1000.

Unfortunately there are 200,000 - 300,000 empties/half finished.

Robin Banks said:

Unfortunately there are 200,000 - 300,000 empties/half finished.

Click to expand...

Any idea where this figure comes from? I have heard it before but I can't understand how it’s been worked out? Does that also include holiday homes, rentals, derelict houses, green spaces with approved planning, etc?

Fewer built next year Robin? Not if NAMA has its way...

Robin Banks said:

I calculate the long term sustainable annual requirement for new house building at 11,000pa based on these figures.

2010 will be the first year for about a decade that Ireland does not overbuild, albeit the excess of demand over supply will be about 1000.

Unfortunately there are 200,000 - 300,000 empties/half finished.

Click to expand...

I have heard figures in the 100,000-200,000 range mentioned before and I too wonder where this estimate comes from.
Be that as it may, I'm delighted to see the market returning to realistic levels and satisfying need, as opposed to investor-led demand.
The fact that we're seeing an increase in activity at all, as opposed to a stagnant or dropping new mortgage market gives me hope.

Now if only our government, led by accountants, teachers and barristers, doesn't stifle whatever chances for recovery we might have by raisign taxes, there is a chance this economy will recover.
Cut costs by all means lads and lasses, but don't raise the taxes - I lived through the Haughey Era and have no wish to return to it.

ONQ.

Brendan said:

Press statement from the IBF

Over 12,000 mortgages drawn down during the second quarter of 2009

• Q2 shows seasonal pick-up over Q1
• First-time buyers account for 1 in 4 of all new mortgages
• Home purchaser segments increase market share

Click to expand...

And 11,000 drawn down in Q1. The overriding message coming out to me from various media outlets is that the banks are closed for business.

onq said:

I have heard figures in the 100,000-200,000 range mentioned before and I too wonder where this estimate comes from.

Click to expand...

Census of 2006. The figure was 300K then and does not include holiday homes or other temporarily vacant properties. Explanation from various vested interests at the time was that all these properties were rented and the tenants were hiding behind the couch.

Brendan said:

Press statement from the IBF

Click to expand...

What I find remarkable about these figures is that this huge fall is from 2008. Argueably the market had already crashed by then - how were so many people taking out mrtgages and why were the financial institues faciltating them? It seems our banking sector was living in dream land right until the moment Lehman went bust and the Govt gave the banking guarantee.

Howitzer said:

Census of 2006. The figure was 300K then and does not include holiday homes or other temporarily vacant properties. Explanation from various vested interests at the time was that all these properties were rented and the tenants were hiding behind the couch.

Click to expand...

I found this and on the night of the census there were 174,000 unoccupied houses and 49,000 flats.

[broken link removed]

From looking at the survey methodology it seems that the 29,000 temporarily vacant were people in another house. So 174,000 homes with no-one home on a Sunday night is a far cry from 300,000 un-sold properties.

Maybe I'm wrong, but it is interesting seeing as the AIB chief came out last week saying 16,000 apartments are empty.

Lies damm lies and statistics, down 64% on last year, we're all doomed, up 15% on the previous quarter, maybe it's bottomed out and things are beginning to recover, who to believe?

There's always a bounce in mortgages drawn in Q2, nothing happens January to March..we're all doomed

If Q3 is up on Q2 well then it's time to dance in the streets..



[broken link removed]

NorfBank said:

There's always a bounce in mortgages drawn in Q2, nothing happens January to March..we're all doomed

If Q3 is up on Q2 well then it's time to dance in the streets..

Click to expand...

Are you seeing any discernable upturn in business or just tyre kickers?

Wiggles said:

I found this and on the night of the census there were 174,000 unoccupied houses and 49,000 flats.

[broken link removed]

From looking at the survey methodology it seems that the 29,000 temporarily vacant were people in another house. So 174,000 homes with no-one home on a Sunday night is a far cry from 300,000 un-sold properties.

Maybe I'm wrong, but it is interesting seeing as the AIB chief came out last week saying 16,000 apartments are empty.

Click to expand...

That's be 215,000 - 174,000 houses and 41,000 apartments.

Add in supply less sales for 2006/7/8 and you get to somewhere between 300,000 and 350,000.
Completions:
2006 88,200
2007 78,000
2008 55,000
[broken link removed]

Note, when people talk about empties, it doesn't mean that the houses are not owned, or under contract to be owned, it just means that they are not occupied. Whether it is a builder or an individual investor that owns it is neither here nor there. Whether it is on the market or not is neither!

Howitzer said:

What I find remarkable about these figures is that this huge fall is from 2008.

Click to expand...

Pretty much everything in 2008 was a carryover from the bubble. Yes the market had already crashed, but you were seeing the pull through from commitments entered into when the bubble was in full flow (ie off the plan purchases in 2006 and early 2007).

There was at least two years pipeline which had to be worked through before we start seeing the actual post bubble picture in the 2009 figures.