European Elections

I have said before that the long term future in Irish politics is a Fine Gael versus Sinn Fein split.

Looking at today's opinion polls it is the short term future of Irish politics also.

Decide which side of the split you are on and vote accordingly, anything else is a wasted vote.

I will wait until a General Election. People think so little of European and Local Elections that are willing to vote Sinn Fein in as a protest vote. Come General Election time, Sinn Fein will poll well until election day and then people will revert back to the main parties and independents as has happened previously. I admit that Sinn Fein are gaining in popularity as the older generation of SF politicians vanish but I don't see them getting into power anytime soon. Certianly not at the next election.

The Shinners are getting the protest vote, just like Labour last time, the Greens before that, Labour before that etc.
Those who can’t handle reality protest against it. That’s about 20% of the electorate.
The rest of us may not like reality but we accept it and try to change it within the bounds of what’s possible.
The worst thing the Shinners could do is get into power. They would then try to implement their anti-business policies (even more anti-business than Labour and the current government). The fallout would be a disaster for Ireland and for them.

Purple said:

The Shinners are getting the protest vote, just like Labour last time, the Greens before that, Labour before that etc.
Those who can’t handle reality protest against it. That’s about 20% of the electorate.
The rest of us may not like reality but we accept it and try to change it within the bounds of what’s possible.
The worst thing the Shinners could do is get into power. They would then try to implement their anti-business policies (even more anti-business than Labour and the current government). The fallout would be a disaster for Ireland and for them.

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Not so sure. Sinn Fein are the same as every political party. They say one thing in opposition and do another thing when in power. Compare their rethoric down South compared to what they have done in power up North. They have cut health spending, education and even welfare. They have defended water charges up North and despite giving out about the property tax down here, have done nothing to reduce the one in the North which is a lot higher.

It's like Labour and FG with the burn the bondholders or ban the upward rent reviews slogans while in opposition. Once they get their feet behind the ministerial desk and the senior civil servants have a word, they all go native in the end and nothing changes.

Now make Ming Flanagan and Mick Wallace leaders of the Country and we could have change!

Sunny said:

Not so sure. Sinn Fein are the same as every political party. They say one thing in opposition and do another thing when in power. Compare their rethoric down South compared to what they have done in power up North. They have cut health spending, education and even welfare. They have defended water charges up North and despite giving out about the property tax down here, have done nothing to reduce the one in the North which is a lot higher.

It's like Labour and FG with the burn the bondholders or ban the upward rent reviews slogans while in opposition. Once they get their feet behind the ministerial desk and the senior civil servants have a word, they all go native in the end and nothing changes.

Now make Ming Flanagan and Mick Wallace leaders of the Country and we could have change!

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This Labour/FG government has been very anti-business. They have increased CGT from 20% to 33% (a 65% increase) and CAT (including inheritance tax) by the same.
If they want jobs to be created then they shouldn't be taxing capital so excessively. They have also allowed rates to increase massively.
Then there's payroll taxes; they second most "progressive" in the OECD. The top 5% pay more than the bottom 40%. Hardly attractive for investment, be it domestic or foreign.
Labour want a wealth tax on top of that. The Shinners regard it as a core issue. There would be nothing left here if those mutton heads were in power.

The difference would be between realism and vendetta. In fairness to the current government I think they did at least try to spread the taxation/austerity pain. They weren't determinedly anti-business, there just wasn't much wiggle-room in being pro anything. The Shinners, the People Against Profit and all other sundry soapbox enthusiasts in that corral refuse to see that and think that a vote-winning strategy is to foster and stoke the ill-founded resentment of people who are struggling, against what the soapbox enthusiasts almost portray [FONT=&quot][/FONT]as those with ill-gotten gains. It is a divisive, vindictive, short-term view which will, if implemented as policy, decimate the country again. It is more of the same sectarianism that SF have played up in the North to bolster their own support there.

so-crates said:

The difference would be between realism and vendetta. In fairness to the current government I think they did at least try to spread the taxation/austerity pain. They weren't determinedly anti-business, there just wasn't much wiggle-room in being pro anything. The Shinners, the People Against Profit and all other sundry soapbox enthusiasts in that corral refuse to see that and think that a vote-winning strategy is to foster and stoke the ill-founded resentment of people who are struggling, against what the soapbox enthusiasts almost portray [FONT=&quot][/FONT]as those with ill-gotten gains. It is a divisive, vindictive, short-term view which will, if implemented as policy, decimate the country again. It is more of the same sectarianism that SF have played up in the North to bolster their own support there.

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Yes, very well put.

Purple said:

This Labour/FG government has been very anti-business. They have increased CGT from 20% to 33% (a 65% increase) and CAT (including inheritance tax) by the same.
If they want jobs to be created then they shouldn't be taxing capital so excessively. They have also allowed rates to increase massively.
Then there's payroll taxes; they second most "progressive" in the OECD. The top 5% pay more than the bottom 40%. Hardly attractive for investment, be it domestic or foreign.

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How are capital taxes such as CGT and CAT anti-business?

Part of the reason for raising these taxes was to limit the increases in income taxes which they have done.

They have brought stability to the economy which is probably the most important pro-business thing they could have done.

I agree that income taxes are too high, but I would be all in favour of increasing CAT and using the proceeds to reduce income tax. There was an excellent article in the FT about abolishing the allowance for CAT completely and making all gifts and inheritances subject to income tax at the person's marginal rate.

Why should earned income be taxed at 53% while a good part of unearned income is exempt and the balance taxed at only 33%?

Brendan Burgess said:

How are capital taxes such as CGT and CAT anti-business?

Part of the reason for raising these taxes was to limit the increases in income taxes which they have done.

They have brought stability to the economy which is probably the most important pro-business thing they could have done.

I agree that income taxes are too high, but I would be all in favour of increasing CAT and using the proceeds to reduce income tax. There was an excellent article in the FT about abolishing the allowance for CAT completely and making all gifts and inheritances subject to income tax at the person's marginal rate.

Why should earned income be taxed at 53% while a good part of unearned income is exempt and the balance taxed at only 33%?

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The boys from the EU/IMF brought stability. Do you really think the government would have kept on the right path without them?

I don’t accept that income tax V Capital taxes is an either/or equation. Capital and it’s movement is the lubricant of the economy. Taxing it heavily slows everything down.
Income tax is way too high and that is causing its own set of problems but taking capital that should be invested in creating jobs and using it to pay for non wealth creating state services (no matter how necessary they are) is damaging to the economy and the country in the medium term.
Reducing taxes creates the environment where jobs are created. Reducing taxes on business (including rates) means they have money to employ people and grow their business. The government don’t seem to understand that. They say they do but their actions say differently.

Sunny said:

I will wait until a General Election. People think so little of European and Local Elections that are willing to vote Sinn Fein in as a protest vote. Come General Election time, Sinn Fein will poll well until election day and then people will revert back to the main parties and independents as has happened previously. I admit that Sinn Fein are gaining in popularity as the older generation of SF politicians vanish but I don't see them getting into power anytime soon. Certianly not at the next election.

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Until the recent campaign and polls I would have agreed with this. Now however the question is who are "the main parties".

Can FF really be considered a main party anymore. Yes it has a nationwide structure but the heart has gone out of it. A large part of its reason for being was power, now that is gone and the prospect of power is gone. Its activists are old and tired.

After the last general election FF could have tacked right or left, but it stayed in the amorphous middle. That is only a tenable position for a large scale party, a party of power. Now it is too late for FF to go either left or right, the ground is occupied.

Labour, well they have a core constituency, public sector, trade union, middle class liberal. They have no hope of attracting a protest vote or the very small true socialist vote. It has no future as a main party.

Anyone can vote for SF.

Protest voters, Paul Murphy is a mouth, Martin Ferris is a protest vote.

Feminists Mary Lou and the two female European candidates. ( I was watching the EU candidates last night Liadh Ni Riada made Phil Prendergast look like a stuffed shirt. And as an aside Simon Harris made Deirdre Clune look clueless.)

People with serious concerns about the direction of the economy, SF's official economic policies may be fantasy but Peirse Doherty comes across as the best informed alternative to the FG/EU line.

cremeegg said:

People with serious concerns about the direction of the economy, SF's official economic policies may be fantasy but Peirse Doherty comes across as the best informed alternative to the FG/EU line.

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SF are pretty weak on the economy.

Adams is a disaster on things like economics and finance.
SFs economic policies are a bit all over the shop.
They like pretending they are an all Ireland party but have no problem with property taxes or water taxes in Northern Ireland.

So the Shinners and looney left look like getting nearly half the vote.
Some people have short memories but others have no problem voting for people who blow up children. Then there's the people who vote for People before Logic. They are just stupid.

That's called democracy Purple. Calling people stupid for exercising their democratic right is a harsh.

I'd be more critical of all the people who didn't bother to vote.

I think where you have a system whereby the Masters of the Universe get found guilty of illegal acts involving 100s millions of euro and get commended by the judge for their selflessness and lack of avarice you should expect a protest vote.

People are angry, and are showing that through the ballot box. I voted FG last time expecting some change to the way this country is run....and all we got was a few tweaks of the existing failed systems.

People before Logic seem to have done quiet badly IMO, given how angry people are. Very little increase in their vote.
And I think a lot of the Shinners now running for office were'nt even walking when the last bombs were going off in the North.

Why vote for FG/FF/Labour- it's just a continuation of the way things have always been

I found myself in the voting booth looking at a pile of people about whom I knew little or was aware of their limitations.

I gave 2 votes in the Local Election.

I gave one vote in the Europe Election.

Normally, I might have amused myself by voting down the lists.

Marion

PaddyBloggit said:

That's called democracy Purple. Calling people stupid for exercising their democratic right is a harsh.

I'd be more critical of all the people who didn't bother to vote.

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Well what's the point voting, if there's no-one I actually want to see in a position, and no-one who I'm sufficiently opposed to as would justify me attempting to rank the other wastes of space so as to effectively vote against them...?

There's a difference between being stupid, and just not caring.

At least turn up and spoil your vote.

PaddyBloggit said:

At least turn up and spoil your vote.

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Why?

mandelbrot said:

Why?

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why not? There is ample choice on the voting slip. Not bothering to vote only endorses the status quo. The 50% who didn't bother to vote have no right to complain about the Government or its policies if they make no effort to engage by casting their votes.