are FG/Labour all washed up at next election because of water fiasco???

Judging by PaddyPower's betting my best estimate for the outcome of the next election is:

FG 45 (68)
FF 32 (20)
SF 29 (14)
LAB 15 (34)
Others 36 (29)

Current set-up in brackets. Note only 157(165) voting seats in next Dáil.

Now that is very interesting Arithmetic. Note that no two parties have a working majority. PaddyPower rates FF/FG 13/8 favourite with FF/FG/Others 11/4 next.

The really key contest is between FF and SF and ironically SF will have a better chance of government if they lose that contest. A FF/SF coalition under MM is just about conceivable but Grisly as Teashop - surely never, ever:eek:

If SF do very well, say clear second then a FF/FG coalition looks a slam dunk as the only objection to this meeting of like minds are historic civil war anachronisms. Whilst such a coalition would have hitherto been seen as "bad for democracy", a huge showing by SF would scare middle Ireland into dismissing such qualms.

Conclusion: fill your boots with FF/FG at 13/8 with a saver on FF/FG/Others.
 
Labour by all accounts will be washed out. I don't go by all accounts though....I believe Labour have a quiet following...most in the public sector. The polls won't reflect this, much as the Scottish vote to remain in the UK was "unpopular" but won out.

I'm not sure what I think of FF/FG together. I can imagine unbelievable in-fighting. The downside for FG would be that if it didn't last they would be lumped with FF and the SF/Labour alternative would plunge the country into chaos.

If SF look like getting into government I would bet that there would be a return to the off-shoring of deposits as per the Euro currency wobble last year.

Firefly.
 
cremeegg said:
The next general election is a contest between Sinn Fein and Fine Gael.

This reflects a very old division that has existed in Irish society since Daniel O Connell died and the famine obliterated the society he lived in. Since then irish politics have been divided between the Fenians (Sinn Fein) and the Irish Party (Fine Gael). Those that own and those that don't.

All the protesters and left voters will be swept up by Sinn Fein. The Sinn Fein party offers structure and longevity to these voters, Ming and Mattie McGrath are temporary phenomena.

In the face of this and in the interests of continuity with state policies over the last 55 years, (investment in education, an open economy, attracting foreign investment) Fine gael offers the only alternative.

Unless there is a significant revival in FF, I predict some of them will be lead back to SF by Eamon O Cuiv and the rest support an FG lead government under Mary Hanafin.

There may be a delay in this scenario, it may not come to pass until the election after next. in the meantime Mick Wallace for Taoiseach indeed.
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Hmmm, someone needs to pay more attention in history class. While I don't entirely dispute your argument that it may be a FG vs SF contest, you are being very cavalier with your history!

Haves and have nots have been a characteristic of Irish society since long before Daniel O'Connell. It has not been as significant a determinant of Irish voting patterns as you make out.

Radical Irish nationalism was for the most part, and certainly for most of the 1800s, not characterised by have nots. Most of the have nots were too busy living hand to mouth to bother with nationalism.

The Irish Parliamentary Party has not been in existence since 1918 and they were only founded in 1882.

The original SF were founded in 1905 by the (cantankerous) Arthur Griffith. Their focus was solely on Irish Nationalism. The pseudo-left grandstanding (I couldn't characterise any of their current positions as "policy") of the current crop of pretenders to the title was not a feature of SF until long after De Valera threw a hissy fit and walked out to form Fianna Fáil.

Prior to the 1916 Rising being wrongly attributed to SF their most significant showing in the polls was gaining 27% in a by-election in 1908. Most of that was a personal vote for the candidate. They did not gain the seat.

FG are also rooted in SF (pro-treaty SF became CnaG who joined with the Blueshirts to become FG). They were no more haves than than anti-treaty Sinn Fein were.

The current band of merry men under Grizzly and Mary Kangaroo can, despite claiming the name, lay as tenuous a claim to being the true descendants of SF as all the other parties, including Labour who by taking in the fragment of the fragment of the fragment of SF contaminated themselves with old SF (SF --> anti-treaty SF --> sad little rump in the corner SF --> Official SF --> SF The Worker's Party --> The Worker's Party --> Democratic Left who joined the Labour Party )

Grizzly and co are very anxious to rewrite Irish history - best not pick up any bad habits from them.
 
are FG/Labour all washed up at next election because of water fiasco???
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Labour were already washed up but it seems that the IW calamity will do untold damage to FG. Methinks FG should scrap water charges then dropkick and blame Kenny and Tierney. Further tinkering with the charges/rebates regime will only throw up new anomalies. The worst possible thing for them to do would be to dip into non-payers wages/welfare for payment, so this is what I expect them to do . . that would be curtains for them.
 
so-crates said:
Haves and have nots have been a characteristic of Irish society since long before Daniel O'Connell. It has not been as significant a determinant of Irish voting patterns as you make out.
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I did not mean to suggest that Irish politics is characterised by a division between haves and have nots. Rather the division has been between those who accept the legitimacy of existing institutions and wish to progress by building on what has gone before. To my mind this is the FG approach. The other side of the division rejects the legitimacy of existing instutions and wishes to tear down and build anew. The Fenians and SF from the civil war until recently.


so-crates said:
The Irish Parliamentary Party has not been in existence since 1918 and they were only founded in 1882.
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I don't think it is very controversial to see FG as the modern incarnation of The Irish Party. John Bruton certainly seems to think so.

Fianna Fáil in their prime managed to bridge this divide and have it both ways. Hence the "slightly constitutional party" tag.

My point is that it is no longer possible for Irish voters to have it both ways. We will have to choose between supporting the institutions unpalatable as that may be or rejecting them and starting over.

FG or SF
 
cremeegg said:
I did not mean to suggest that Irish politics is characterised by a division between haves and have nots. Rather the division has been between those who accept the legitimacy of existing institutions and wish to progress by building on what has gone before. To my mind this is the FG approach. The other side of the division rejects the legitimacy of existing instutions and wishes to tear down and build anew. The Fenians and SF from the civil war until recently.
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Actually cremeegg, you didn't suggest it, you said it explicitly.

cremeegg said:
This reflects a very old division that has existed in Irish society since Daniel O Connell died and the famine obliterated the society he lived in. Since then irish politics have been divided between the Fenians (Sinn Fein) and the Irish Party (Fine Gael). Those that own and those that don't.
Click to expand...
 
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