Morgan Kelly's latest article

Kelly's been on the money for a long time now. He's pretty much the only commentator with any credibility at this stage. Anyone disagreeing with his views better have something good to back up their position. Ex-teachers, estate agents and career politicos need not apply.
 
I agree with the idea that if we can get the budget to balance, our position for negotiation becomes alot stronger, but that will only happen with massive public spending/sector cuts which will not happen quickly.
 
Kelly's article is a sobering assessment of the financial reality that is Ireland today.
The sooner we cut our public wage bill the better but let's not be too hasty.
Forcing precipitous change will cause more long term economic damage.

Cuts are not the only answer.
Investing in indigenous businesses to grow export-led jobs is necessary.
The realignment of both existing and new indigenous businesses towards export is indicated.

But we also need advice and stimuli to allow this to happen and direct efforts to best effect.
We're not just looking for more investment here, but links to viable markets abroad.

FWIW

ONQ
 
I would tend to believe Morgan Kellys assessment..we are in big trouble.

We are just not hearing about how many job losses there are,for example;
David Marshalls (Hairdresser,in business 30 plus years) Gone,
Maxwell motors,which was a big dealership closed last week.

There are so many small businesses going bust that we are not aware of, the future is bleak.
 
We don't need doom and gloom from Morgan Kelly - we need someone to start charting a course for us and implementing it.
The development principle that sustained us through the boom is the one to adopt now.
"Businesses come and businesses go".
We need more coming than going.

But what we really need is a new bank, run by intelligent people, not the croney pseudo-capitalists we were saddeld with before.

A new bank is needed to restart our indigenous economy.
A new bank is needed to generate profits by engaging in inter-bank trading.
A new bank is needed to show the world that Ireland can be trusted and can do business in financial terms.

Our two sad old banks cannot do this for us.

The current incumbents are STILL dysfunctional and still possess much of the discredited top echelons that got them into the mess we are all in.
Not other international banks will touch these banks, which si why we need a new one, a credible one, a solvent one - one that could make a profit.
As for the two zombie banks - let them struggle on, tainted by their key, culpable personnel and their so-called intelligentsia with half a brain between them.

We need a new bank.

And we all, the world over, need to start taxing banks and stock exchanges on EVERY transaction, a Tobin tax for as long as we need it to get us out of this mess.

ONQ
 
I listened to professor Honohan on the News at One yesterday. He (as usual) came across as highly credible and his critique of Kelly's article gave an almost completely different picture.

Two professors totally at odd's with each other, one of them, the one in the driving seat, is prepared to discuss it and submit to intense questioning, whilst the other shoots off a bombshell article, laced with personal attacks on Honohan and runs for cover in the hallowed halls of UCD.

Honohan claims Kelly's assessment is deeply flawed, Kelly needs to answer these criticisms. Kelly's suggestion of an immediate balanced budget is overly simplistic and impossible. He probably know this. He has credibilty because he called it right in the past. This doesn't guarantee he's right now. He really needs to grow up. If he can't or won't defend his opinions he should keep them to himself. It's churlish and petulant to act as he does.
 
onq said:
We don't need doom and gloom from Morgan Kelly - we need someone to start charting a course for us and implementing it.
The development principle that sustained us through the boom is the one to adopt now.
"Businesses come and businesses go".
We need more coming than going.

But what we really need is a new bank, run by intelligent people, not the croney pseudo-capitalists we were saddeld with before.

A new bank is needed to restart our indigenous economy.
A new bank is needed to generate profits by engaging in inter-bank trading.
A new bank is needed to show the world that Ireland can be trusted and can do business in financial terms.

Our two sad old banks cannot do this for us.

The current incumbents are STILL dysfunctional and still possess much of the discredited top echelons that got them into the mess we are all in.
Not other international banks will touch these banks, which si why we need a new one, a credible one, a solvent one - one that could make a profit.
As for the two zombie banks - let them struggle on, tainted by their key, culpable personnel and their so-called intelligentsia with half a brain between them.

We need a new bank.

And we all, the world over, need to start taxing banks and stock exchanges on EVERY transaction, a Tobin tax for as long as we need it to get us out of this mess.

ONQ
Click to expand...
So where will this new bank get it's money from?
 
onq said:
The sooner we cut our public wage bill the better but let's not be too hasty.

ONQ
Click to expand...

If only that was the problem.
If we do what Kelly suggests you are looking at massive cuts in all social welfare rates, probably around 35 - 40%. Seeing that no party wants to take even €8 off the old age pesnion, will they knock €80 off it? thats what you are looking at.
 
horusd said:
I listened to professor Honohan on the News at One yesterday. He (as usual) came across as highly credible and his critique of Kelly's article gave an almost completely different picture.

Two professors totally at odd's with each other, one of them, the one in the driving seat, is prepared to discuss it and submit to intense questioning, whilst the other shoots off a bombshell article, laced with personal attacks on Honohan and runs for cover in the hallowed halls of UCD.

Honohan claims Kelly's assessment is deeply flawed, Kelly needs to answer these criticisms. Kelly's suggestion of an immediate balanced budget is overly simplistic and impossible. He probably know this. He has credibilty because he called it right in the past. This doesn't guarantee he's right now. He really needs to grow up. If he can't or won't defend his opinions he should keep them to himself. It's churlish and petulant to act as he does.
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I don't belive Honohan, he is too closely linked to the ECB to be impartial, Morgan Kelly is de facto the voice of the Irish financial dissident and to date he has called everything correctly..you can buy into Honohan's eloquent rhetoric if you wish in the same way that people bought into lenihan's rubbish "we have turned the corner" etc...It is simple we are seeing the slow unwinding of the financial ideology of Neo-Liberalism, a model we whole heartly endorsed " we are closer to Boston than Berlin" etc.....
 
ccbkd said:
I don't belive Honohan, he is too closely linked to the ECB to be impartial, Morgan Kelly is de facto the voice of the Irish financial dissident and to date he has called everything correctly..you can buy into Honohan's eloquent rhetoric if you wish in the same way that people bought into lenihan's rubbish "we have turned the corner" etc...It is simple we are seeing the slow unwinding of the financial ideology of Neo-Liberalism, a model we whole heartly endorsed " we are closer to Boston than Berlin" etc.....
Click to expand...

Professor Kelly needs to backup the claims made in his article on national TV. Patrick Honohan did on radio and refuted the same comments. The article itslef is scandalous - bordering on the slanderous and possibly libellous.
Morgan Kelly may also be right in his predictions but surely he may also be wrong. I heard a rumour that he was treated badly on RTE before and becasue of that he refuses to do any more live debates or broadcasts. But he has to come out of his office now after writing this latest article to substantiate his arguments.
 
ccbkd said:
I don't belive Honohan, he is too closely linked to the ECB to be impartial, Morgan Kelly is de facto the voice of the Irish financial dissident and to date he has called everything correctly..you can buy into Honohan's eloquent rhetoric if you wish in the same way that people bought into lenihan's rubbish "we have turned the corner" etc...It is simple we are seeing the slow unwinding of the financial ideology of Neo-Liberalism, a model we whole heartly endorsed " we are closer to Boston than Berlin" etc.....
Click to expand...

Then let Kelly defend his position. Let him respect the public enough to go head to head with Honohan. He may be right. Let him be tested as anyone who posts on AAM may have their positons tested/questioned. In short, let him put up or shut up. If Honohan is engaging in "elequent rethoric" then let Kelly demonstrate it. At least Honohan is willing to face the public and not hurl from the ditches.

PS: I wonder does Kelly think:

1. His arguments are so obviously true, that they require no justification.

2. His reputation, integrity & wisdom alone allows him to stand above any mere criticism or deign to reply to commentary.

3. Or, some other reason exists as to why he feels he has a right to express such damning criticism yet answer no questions himself.

At the very least, Kelly should give reasons for his Grand Silence . He is deeply dis-respectful of a worried people. He adds to the worry and anxiety and runs. The IT should refuse to publish anything else from him unless he agrees to public scrutiny. He owes us this at the minimum..
 
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horusd said:
Then let Kelly defend his position. Let him respect the public enough to go head to head with Honohan. He may be right. Let him be tested as anyone who posts on AAM may have their positons tested/questioned. In short, let him put up or shut up. If Honohan is engaging in "elequent rethoric" then let Kelly demonstrate it. At least Honohan is willing to face the public and not hurl from the ditches.

PS: I wonder does Kelly think:

1. His arguments are so obviously true, that they require no justification.

2. His reputation, integrity & wisdom alone allows him to stand above any mere criticism or deign to reply to commentary.

3. Or, some other reason exists as to why he feels he has a right to express such damning criticism yet answer no questions himself.

At the very least, Kelly should give reasons for his Grand Silence . He is deeply dis-respectful of a worried people. He adds to the worry and anxiety and runs. The IT should refuse to publish anything else from him unless he agrees to public scrutiny. He owes us this at the minimum..
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I get the impression that most people were profoundly depressed by his article, I know I was! what follows now is predictable; sections of the media and Establishment will of course refute M.Kelly's article, people will generally buy into the majors players' arguments against M.Kelly and we will be stumble onwards toward default and economic ruin and in four years time we will all reflect on just how prescient the article was...


"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed, second it is violently opposed, and third, it is accepted as self-evident." Arthur Schopenhauer
 
I don't think we can dismiss Kelly's views just because he won't argue them in public. We can discuss those views here without mentioning Kelly or Honahan. The essence of the article is that we should give the ECB the two fingers and balance our budget tomorrow, but this won't happen so in 2 years we are going to be defaulting\bankrupt and screwed. He also points out that there is no political party there to take over once FG and Labour are wiped out after this happens.
It is a pessimistic view alright, but probably quite accurate. If it is accurate, then we need to go about sorting the problem out in so far as we can. I guess we'll see the governments hand as it comes closer to the budget.
 
horusd said:
Honohan claims Kelly's assessment is deeply flawed, Kelly needs to answer these criticisms. Kelly's suggestion of an immediate balanced budget is overly simplistic and impossible. He probably know this. He has credibilty because he called it right in the past. This doesn't guarantee he's right now. He really needs to grow up. If he can't or won't defend his opinions he should keep them to himself. It's churlish and petulant to act as he does.
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Which part of Kelly's article do you think is wrong? There is no right or wrong here - there is just our best move. For me a private banking debt default and an immediate balanced budget is our best move. It will be very tough but its better than a slow death.

What Kelly has done is got people talking about this move at a high level.
 
shnaek said:
I don't think we can dismiss Kelly's views just because he won't argue them in public. We can discuss those views here without mentioning Kelly or Honahan. The essence of the article is that we should give the ECB the two fingers and balance our budget tomorrow, but this won't happen so in 2 years we are going to be defaulting\bankrupt and screwed. He also points out that there is no political party there to take over once FG and Labour are wiped out after this happens.
It is a pessimistic view alright, but probably quite accurate. If it is accurate, then we need to go about sorting the problem out in so far as we can. I guess we'll see the governments hand as it comes closer to the budget.
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No one is dismissing his views however you cannot expect everyone to bow down and kneel just because he has written (how was it put earlier..."An opinion").
As well you say it's a pessimistic view - but you also use the important word - the word "IF". And frankly we don't know "if" it's true because it hasn't come to pass yet. So it's speculation and one scneario.

But everyone seems to want to buy it just because it was written by Morgan Kelly and no one is allowed to ask him where he got his facts or why he has chosen to commit himself to writing this as the ultimate likely scenario.
 
The problem is that Morgan Kelly is seen by some people as some sort of Messiah or at least a Prophet! He actually talks a lot of sense and I would agree with some of his points, but it is an opinion piece. As pointed out, his figures do not stand up to scrutiny or should at least come with a health warning. His idea of walking away from the EU/IMF/ECB makes Sinn Fein's economic policies look almost conservative.
 
horusd said:
I listened to professor Honohan on the News at One yesterday. He (as usual) came across as highly credible and his critique of Kelly's article gave an almost completely different picture.

Two professors totally at odd's with each other, one of them, the one in the driving seat, is prepared to discuss it and submit to intense questioning, whilst the other shoots off a bombshell article, laced with personal attacks on Honohan and runs for cover in the hallowed halls of UCD.

Honohan claims Kelly's assessment is deeply flawed, Kelly needs to answer these criticisms. Kelly's suggestion of an immediate balanced budget is overly simplistic and impossible. He probably know this. He has credibilty because he called it right in the past. This doesn't guarantee he's right now. He really needs to grow up. If he can't or won't defend his opinions he should keep them to himself. It's churlish and petulant to act as he does.
Click to expand...

You must have listened to a different interview because he sounded like a nervous joke to me.
 
Kelly has an opinion, fine. He might even be partially or substantially right. But his opinions has had serious repercussions, not least for the reputation of Honohan, but also the country in general. His facts and conclusions are disputed. In writing the article, in expressing his opinions, he enters the public fray. And in his role as the hottest economist amongst a multitude of celeb economists, his opinion has an impact and he has a duty to explain them. This is not some celebrity chef arguing over the recipe for meatloaf, it directly impacts on people's lives. If he doesn't know this, he should know it. If he wants to scrap with Holohan or anyone else, let him do so on the pitch and meet his critics face-on. His recommendation for a balanced budget is ludicrous and would send the country into free-fall and massive social unrest. If he is so convinced he's right, thenlet him defend his position and argue it out, or get off the stage and let people who actually want to engage in a democratic debate, take the role on. As Sunny points out he's no Messiah.
 
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