A good time to switch to fixed mortgage rate?

M

man

Guest
With the announcement of growth in the French and German economies, is it likely that the ECB will increase interest rates, therefore making now a good time to switch from a variable rate to fixed?
 
As I understand these things, the ECB will only raise interest rates to stabilise inflationary economic growth in the Eurozone. In practical terms, you're talking France, Germany, Italy.
If the current 'green shoots' in France and Germany turn out to be true and the larger economies are turning around, it's still likely to be several quarters before growth is racing ahead and needs to be reigned in by an interest rate increase.
However, there's no doubt that there will be one down the line. When I took out my mortgage in April I fixed for ten years because I reckoned that in 2,3 or even 5 years time the rates available will be at least a couple of points higher. In effect, by fixing you're paying over the odds now but I think you'll save it in the long term. The other disadvantage is of course the repayment penalties if you need to sell and the inability to make additional payments but for me these weren't issues.
I'd love to hear some other opinions one way or the other.
Cheers
K
 
This has been discussed on several threads (usually titled with a question as to whether to fix or not) the arguments break down as follows... Interest rates are at all time low so now would be a good time to fix but the rate you get fixed is usually higher since the bank is taking on the risk of the interest rates rising. Fixed rates are a premium product and you will be limited so they should only be taken on if you need to know exactly what your repayments will be. If you are on a tracker, you are in the best current position and it is likely that the banks will be keeping a close eye on where the rates are likely to go and will have priced their products accordingly.

Basically you should really compare like with like, if you are inclined towards fixing your rates generally then now compares favourably, if you are not then it is only a consideration if you are worried about absorbing an increase. Personally I would not be inclined to fix unless I was close to the limit I could manage to pay. Fixing is expensive, if the rate you get over a ten year fixed deal is about 5% rates and rates didn't start to increase until the middle of next year (which is not an unreasonable surmise) you'd need to see rates increase considerably and/or quickly over 5% before you'd be the gainer.

(Using Karl Jeacle's mortgage calculator to run some scenarios)
For example €100k @5% over 20 years fixed for 10 years in the first ten years you would pay back €44,415 in interest alone.

In the unlikely case where you are lucky enough to be paying back 2.2% for those ten years you would pay back €18,492 in interest alone (of course chance would be a fine thing!).

If the rates were to rise 1% in 6 months, then another 1% 6 months later, then 2% 6 months after that and remains at that level (6.2%) for the remainder of the term then you would pay back €48,339 in interest. In short what I am saying is that you'd have to see a pretty steep increase before you are out of pocket by sticking with the tracker. I can't see the interest rate increasing that steeply simply because it would probably be viewed as being liable to derail any recovery.
 
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