Labour at 6%

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Purple

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Labour are now at 6% in the polls. This despite sticking reasonably close to the programme for government that they agreed with Fine Gael and having some high profile ministers.
Joan Burton has done a good job, maybe an excellent job, as minister for Social Protection (terribly Orwellian name for a Department).
Brendan Howlin has done almost nothing to reform the Public Sector so that should keep a large chunk of Labours core supporters happy.
Ruairi Quinn is perhaps the most controversial Labour has been the most controversial minister due to his reform agenda but is probably a victim of circumstance to some extent as the Unions seek to reverse their own shafting of new entrants to the sector.
Eamonn Gilmore has been quite low profile as leaders. His sycophantic fawning at the heels of the UK Queen was stomach turning but was vastly overshadowed by that far more extreme manifestation of the same by our President. Given that Labour have a middleclass urban support base I don’t see why such behaviour would have a major impact on their ratings.

So why the collapse? Is it simply that Leftwing parties always do badly in government? Is it the fact that reality requires hard choices and that Socialism (or whatever version of it Labour now espouse) is just too far from reality to work in practice?
I see posters from People Against Logic (AKA People Against Profit) and the Socialist Party where I live with stupid meaningless slogans like “Enough is Enough”. This is where Labour’s support is going; there is now another option for people who don’t like reality. They can vote for the Loony Left and the Shinners. Bad timing for a party that thrives in the rhetoric of illogical idealism while in opposition but now finds itself in power.
The reality is that Labour have done quite a good job in government but Labour doesn’t sell reality so it’s supporters are following someone else’s yellow brick road to sunshine and unicorn land.
 
The problem for Labour is that they are losing the middle class vote. They are being decimated in Dublin. I posted this a while back and it is coming back to bite them.

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=185913

Even in the recent Justice controversies which would usually be heaven sent for Labour (protecting whistle blowers), they were very very weak.

Will be interesting to see at the next election if the current trend towards independents will continue or will people still vote for the traditional parties.
 
I would sooner vote for SF before considering Labour.

They need to go the same way of the greens, into the wilderness.
 
Time said:
I would sooner vote for SF before considering Labour.

They need to go the same way of the greens, into the wilderness.
Click to expand...

I'd vote for Labour any day of the week before I'd vote for the Shinners. I quite like the Greens; they remained true to their values and their TD's were intelligent, articulate and decent people. We could do with a few more like them.
 
I just think that the minority party always gets the hit in coalitions.

They tend not to have the same large core of [strike]miopic[/strike] dedicated voters (hence being minorities) and those transient voters abandon them. I guess the transient voters also (probably unfairly) blame them for not having enough influence at government, but the reality is that these parties are only ever important immediately after an election as they're courted into a coalition. After that they simply don't have the votes to have any sustainable power.
 
My read is that Labour are not so much middle class as middle income but especially public service middle income. What have Labour achieved in government? To me they have maintained social protection rates, that is their main mark and that is a commendable achievement by their own ideological standards. But it shows electoral naivite. If you're out of work you support a protest party such as SF or the Indos, there is no gratitude electoral dividend in maintaining SW rates.

Their core support - middle income PS - feel really cheesed off. They believe that they have been the main victims of the adjustment. They may even be resentful that things are starting to turn up for the Private Sector, after they making the main sacrifices.

If anything underpins this analysis it is the vicious reception given by the teachers' unions to a Labour minister. Teachers traditionally are died in the wool Labour supporters. If a Labour minister gets that treatment from a teachers' union, the game is up.
 
Wage cuts / freezes, draconian changes to entitlement to sick leave, more and more ways to take money from you eg. water tax etc, - no wonder they're down. A person who once upon a time might have considered themselves to have a decent salary finds it harder and harder to live on it & make ends meet. I see people with 'on paper' a good salary finding it difficult to keep on top of bills.
A constant effort to change conditions of work, to make you do more more more for less less less. No wonder they're down. :mad: Where will it end??
I wouldn't vote for them.
 
Purple said:
I quite like the Greens; they remained true to their values and their TD's were intelligent, articulate and decent people. We could do with a few more like them.
Click to expand...

intelligent!!! They propped FF up during the bank bailout/guarantee period....giving their nod of approval in late night phone calls without having a clue what they were agreeing to!!!
They had Paul Gogarty amongst them!!! Paul Gogarty!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugailEn8U5o
 
Some very good and interesting points here. We've had some posters here previously on the left calling for higher taxes rather than cutting pay and the dole to bridge the gap. We're now seeing that this is not so popular afterall.

I've a feeling that Labour are nowhere near 6%. They may get a hammering in the local elections, but come the main event, they will still get re-elected. The PS know that Labour are the best shot they have. The Sinners and the other loonie groups represent those on the dole and on low wages, both of who don't vote in large numbers.

On the economy side, I can see a two-tier economy emerging in the short-to-medium term. The private sector is showing signs of recovery, however, I think that for the most part this will translate into higher wages for people already working and an increase in immigration for highly specialised roles, relative to the numbers coming off the dole, (unless something like building takes off again where those on the dole can easily slot in). The impact of this will be that the extra tax earned by those getting higher wages still won't come even close to bridging the current deficit and so the government will still be broke for all intents and purposes, whilst those working will see wages rise. This will result in even more pressure being put on the government buy the unions to increase PS pay, but the money just won't be there.....the numbers in the PS and the rates of dole payments are just too high. Eventually, perhaps many of those in the PS will just get fed up and leave to seek alternative employment.
 
Purple said:
Labour are now at 6% in the polls. This despite sticking reasonably close to the programme for government that they agreed with Fine Gael and having some high profile ministers.
Joan Burton has done a good job, maybe an excellent job, as minister for Social Protection (terribly Orwellian name for a Department).
Brendan Howlin has done almost nothing to reform the Public Sector so that should keep a large chunk of Labours core supporters happy.
Ruairi Quinn is perhaps the most controversial Labour has been the most controversial minister due to his reform agenda but is probably a victim of circumstance to some extent as the Unions seek to reverse their own shafting of new entrants to the sector.
Eamonn Gilmore has been quite low profile as leaders. His sycophantic fawning at the heels of the UK Queen was stomach turning but was vastly overshadowed by that far more extreme manifestation of the same by our President. Given that Labour have a middleclass urban support base I don’t see why such behaviour would have a major impact on their ratings.

So why the collapse? Is it simply that Leftwing parties always do badly in government? Is it the fact that reality requires hard choices and that Socialism (or whatever version of it Labour now espouse) is just too far from reality to work in practice?
I see posters from People Against Logic (AKA People Against Profit) and the Socialist Party where I live with stupid meaningless slogans like “Enough is Enough”. This is where Labour’s support is going; there is now another option for people who don’t like reality. They can vote for the Loony Left and the Shinners. Bad timing for a party that thrives in the rhetoric of illogical idealism while in opposition but now finds itself in power.
The reality is that Labour have done quite a good job in government but Labour doesn’t sell reality so it’s supporters are following someone else’s yellow brick road to sunshine and unicorn land.
Click to expand...

Labour have done a terrible job in government.

The electorate were promised a new way of "doing politics" and both FG/Labour had massive public support to do so.

In return every election pledge by Labour was dumped by them and FG attacked middle income earners ferociously for numerous stealth taxes, LPT and its new HSE style quango of Irish Water.

Both parties’ had a wonderful opportunity to make politics ethical moral and fair, instead they are utterly the same gutter politics as practised by Fianna Fail, sleazy cronyism coupled with even worse unfair regressive taxes that have hurt the poor and the lowest income earners the most.
They will now pay for it beginning in May. Labour will be decimated with Fine Gael receiving only its core vote.
 
Pat Rabbitte's admission that election pledges are just stuff you say in the run up to elections will haunt him and this current bunch for the next few years.
Even if the context in which he said is not how it was played in the media, it will always be held up against them.

That gaff, and the 'Labour's way or Frankfurt's way' + 'every little hurts' campaign = election wipe out for Labour, incl at the next general election IMO.

Independents and the Shinners are the big winners out of all of this. They've yet to get into power and so are 'untainted' by the economic crash and subsequent cuts. If they got in tomorrow, their poll ratings would be on the floor within a couple of years also
 
Delboy said:
intelligent!!! They propped FF up during the bank bailout/guarantee period....giving their nod of approval in late night phone calls without having a clue what they were agreeing to!!!
Click to expand...

Do you really think that Ministers with Local Government and Environment briefs should be up to speed, or in a position to second guess, the Minister for Finance, the "Experts" from the Department of Finance and the Central Bank?
 
werner said:
Labour have done a terrible job in government.

The electorate were promised a new way of "doing politics" and both FG/Labour had massive public support to do so.

In return every election pledge by Labour was dumped by them and FG attacked middle income earners ferociously for numerous stealth taxes, LPT and its new HSE style quango of Irish Water.

Both parties’ had a wonderful opportunity to make politics ethical moral and fair, instead they are utterly the same gutter politics as practised by Fianna Fail, sleazy cronyism coupled with even worse unfair regressive taxes that have hurt the poor and the lowest income earners the most.
They will now pay for it beginning in May. Labour will be decimated with Fine Gael receiving only its core vote.
Click to expand...

It was FG who promised electoral reform. They have delivered very little of it but still more than FF did.
Can you specify what election promises were made and dumped by Labour? I remember them promising that core welfare rates would be untouched. They have delivered on that. I’m not sure what else they promised. The Frankfurt’s way etc quote was stupid but every party says stupid things.
Labour are nominally a “working class” party. The income tax burden falls disproportionally heavily on high earners in Ireland and that has remained the case under this government. Indirect taxes are also very low by international standards. The “hurt the poor” and “the most vulnerable in society” rubbish by the brainless mutton-heads in the Socialist Party and People before Logic means nothing and doesn’t stand up to any scrutiny.
 
Whilst not a Labour supporter, I think they deserve a lot of credit for implementing policies that were far from populist ( but necessary to bring the country back from the brink of bankruptcy). After 3 years of harsh economic medication we can now see that the patient's vital signs are much more positive.

Labour could easily have insisted on following policies we now see proposed by the raving looney groups (no water taxes, no property taxes, no USC, increased SW benefits, tell the ECB to get lost etc etc etc), which would by now see Ireland Inc in total penury.

Unfortunately, if opinion polls are to be believed, the nut cases are getting closer to running the asylum. If our future political leaders are to comprise convicted gun runners, alleged murders, tax dodgers and a collection of fruit cakes (with or without the "pot") then our Republic will truly have earned the "banana" monicker.

Coming back from the disaster inherited from FF, it was never going to be popular implementing policies designed to bring balance to the economic books. But unless the nut cases have discovered a tooth fairy or a very large pot of gold at the end of some rainbow, then their Disney economic policies only work in attracting the support of the deluded. Hopefully we won't have to see proof of their delusional state by actually implementing any of their policies.
 
Labour made so many false promises prior to the election.

Burning bondholders, 3rd level capitation fees etc - no wonder people are angry with them.

I don't think their liberal social policies will win them much support either.
 
Cork, that would be fine if Labour won the election. Then they could be rightly criticised if they did not implement their promises. But the electorate decided not to give any party an absolute majority. So the result was bound to be that Labour supporters would not be fully happy, FG supporters would equally not be fully happy and SF, FF, PBP and the rest of the permanently negative cliche ridden groups would be totally unhappy.
But hey, that's democracy. Voters must remember that we get the Government we elect. So nobody gets all they want.
 
Irish politics is reverting to its long term pattern. A division between a party that seeks change through incremental improvements to existing institutions and processes and a party that seeks to discard the existing scheme of things and build afresh.

This was the division in Irish politics from the famine on with The Fenians on one side and the irish Party on the other.

Fianna Fail may have obscured this division being instinctively anti-establishment but becoming institutionalised by their long time in power after 1932, but we are reverting to our natural division.

The next general election will deliver confusion with no party or group able to form a stable government, the election after that, which may follow quickly, will offer the Irish people a clear choice between a Fine Gael lead group and a Sinn Fein group, I believe that FF will go with their instincts and ultimately support SF.

If the SFers get power how long will it take then to become an establishment party. Less than it took FF or the Workers Party I predict.
 
Is Gilmore for the high-jump?
Will the next leader be of Labour Party stock or will there be another Workers Party/ Democratic Left leader?
 
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