S
SteelBlue05
Guest
Yes, but its pointless now, do we need another 1000 responses of the same points.
We know the generally sentiment at this stage.
I think this thread has served a purpose. From reading all the posts it seems to me
that the current public sentiment is that a crash/slowdown is inevitable in the
opinion of most posters.
This thread is pointless now, nearly 2000 posts and all it has served to do is that some people think property prices will decrease, others disagree.
Going around in circles now.
IF you feel it's pointless then don't contribute or read, personally i find the debate quite interesting and i'm considerably more bearish than bullish 90+ pages later.
Sentiment is a very difficult thing to judge and much of it will be anecdotal, from my point of view while many of my own peers (while still refusing to countenance the possibility of a crash) have accepted double digit growth cannot continue and are happily talking up the soft landind scenario.
Two of the group (both amatuer investors/speculators, one of whom is very stretched) would have been loudly vocal bulls last year proclaiming to all how they're going to be loaded in a few years.
The last few times we've discussed property as a group they're very very quiet now. Sometimes silence speaks volumes.
It is getting rather silly. What gets my goat is people seem to think they can predict a downturn in an irrational market. They don't seem to realise that irrationality by it's very nature; is inherently unpredictable. Not only that but any statistic or news report gets bent to fit these hypotheses'. Last year; the record sale of the old Jury's hotel site was proclaimed as the begining of the end for the Irish property market. Earlier this year, AIB sell up in Ballsbridge, property crash imminent we were told! Now the Kenny Group are selling, quick! everyone out of the pool, crash right around the corner! Of course, when a correction does occur, we'll have the smug posters here telling us, "We told you so".This thread is pointless now, nearly 2000 posts and all it has served to do is that some people think property prices will decrease, others disagree.
Alrite lads, I'm going to brave d gauntlet here and tell you my opinion. I'm 28 and left my 50k well paid computer job here in cork 6 monthes with the aid of a nice severance package. I had gone to night school and got an auctioneers qualification so I got a job straight away in a auctioneers for a 20k salary plus commission. I made d move because I did not like my old job and was always v interested in property. in d last 6 monthes I've been learning d trade and I have begun to notice a change alrite recently. Developers and savvy people are slower in buying these days and some of them are begining to get rid of some of their stock. there is still strong demand from ftb's but they are being pushed to the lower scale of the price range, often to stuff that needs serious diy or far from d city but they are so desperate to get on d 1st rung they are going for them. previously I feel builders and developers were going for these but d margins are not there anymore so they are not bothering so much anymore because they feel sumthing is in d offing. I was(I think) lucky enough 2 buy in d city centre this time last year for 240k in d city in need of renovation and it is currently estimated at 350k. I am considering selling and taking my profit but d one thing stopping me is its location, 10 min walk from patrick st and I like living there and have 2 rooms rented out so repayments are grand.
I think we can all agree that sentiment is changing but its currently only d savvy and "cute" as we say here in cork realize it. I deal with people buying houses evrey day and d majority don't have an idea of what is really happening in terms of interest rate hikes and more to come. The desperate ftb are still clamouring to buy but recently I'd advised 2 of my own friends not to buy in d last month.
Personally I hope d crash does not happen as it wud hurt us all economically and d country wud struggle to get over it. I like living in Ireland close to my family and it wud pain me to leave for work abroad in whatever field. however I do think the country is gone to pot, I'm single without kids but have older sisters and brothers with kids and they have so bought into d american culture and to b honest d kids are spoilt rotten. pardon my lack of eluoquence here but d country is full of muppetts who are not going to enjoy d hard landing that looks to b on its way....
above is my opinion and not fact, please bear that in mind when u reply.
This thread is pointless now, nearly 2000 posts and all it has served to do is that some people think property prices will decrease, others disagree.
Going around in circles now.
As long as people are willing and able to pay for way overpriced property the housing market will continue to grow. It is my opinion that there is a queue of such people that are still in a panic to buy properties. There's as much evidence to suggest that the housing market will continue to grow in the short-term as there is for it to fall.
I'm in total agreement that it can't be sustained, all the evidence points to that,
but when will we see this crash/slowdown?
No evidence on this thread has me convinced that it's occurring now.
whathome said:John P. Calverley is chief economist and strategist at American Express. He has produced a checklist for typical characteristics of a bubble:
- Rapidly rising prices
- High expectations for continuing rapid rises
- Overvaluation compared to historical averages
- Overvaluation compared to reasonable levels
- Several years into an economic upswing
- Some underlying reason or reasons for higher prices
- A new element, e.g. technology for stocks or immigration for housing
- Subjective "paradigm shift" (It's different this time)
- New investors drawn in
- New entrepreneurs in the area
- Considerable popular and media interest
- Major rise in lending
- Increase in indebtedness
- New lenders or lending policies
- Consumer price inflation often subdued (so central banks relaxed)
- Relaxed monetary policy
- Falling household savings rate
- A strong exchange rate
Alrite lads, I'm going to brave d gauntlet here and tell you my opinion. I'm 28 and left my 50k well paid computer job here in cork 6 monthes with the aid of a nice severance package. I had gone to night school and got an auctioneers qualification so I got a job straight away in a auctioneers for a 20k salary plus commission. I made d move because I did not like my old job and was always v interested in property. in d last 6 monthes I've been learning d trade and I have begun to notice a change alrite recently. Developers and savvy people are slower in buying these days and some of them are begining to get rid of some of their stock. there is still strong demand from ftb's but they are being pushed to the lower scale of the price range, often to stuff that needs serious diy or far from d city but they are so desperate to get on d 1st rung they are going for them. previously I feel builders and developers were going for these but d margins are not there anymore so they are not bothering so much anymore because they feel sumthing is in d offing. I was(I think) lucky enough 2 buy in d city centre this time last year for 240k in d city in need of renovation and it is currently estimated at 350k. I am considering selling and taking my profit but d one thing stopping me is its location, 10 min walk from patrick st and I like living there and have 2 rooms rented out so repayments are grand.
I think we can all agree that sentiment is changing but its currently only d savvy and "cute" as we say here in cork realize it. I deal with people buying houses evrey day and d majority don't have an idea of what is really happening in terms of interest rate hikes and more to come. The desperate ftb are still clamouring to buy but recently I'd advised 2 of my own friends not to buy in d last month.
Personally I hope d crash does not happen as it wud hurt us all economically and d country wud struggle to get over it. I like living in Ireland close to my family and it wud pain me to leave for work abroad in whatever field. however I do think the country is gone to pot, I'm single without kids but have older sisters and brothers with kids and they have so bought into d american culture and to b honest d kids are spoilt rotten. pardon my lack of eluoquence here but d country is full of muppetts who are not going to enjoy d hard landing that looks to b on its way....
above is my opinion and not fact, please bear that in mind when u reply.
Alrite lads, I'm going to brave d gauntlet here and tell you my opinion. I'm 28 and left my 50k well paid computer job here in cork 6 monthes with the aid of a nice severance package. I had gone to night school and got an auctioneers qualification so I got a job straight away in a auctioneers for a 20k salary plus commission. I made d move because I did not like my old job and was always v interested in property. in d last 6 monthes I've been learning d trade and I have begun to notice a change alrite recently. Developers and savvy people are slower in buying these days and some of them are begining to get rid of some of their stock. there is still strong demand from ftb's but they are being pushed to the lower scale of the price range, often to stuff that needs serious diy or far from d city but they are so desperate to get on d 1st rung they are going for them. previously I feel builders and developers were going for these but d margins are not there anymore so they are not bothering so much anymore because they feel sumthing is in d offing. I was(I think) lucky enough 2 buy in d city centre this time last year for 240k in d city in need of renovation and it is currently estimated at 350k. I am considering selling and taking my profit but d one thing stopping me is its location, 10 min walk from patrick st and I like living there and have 2 rooms rented out so repayments are grand.
I think we can all agree that sentiment is changing but its currently only d savvy and "cute" as we say here in cork realize it. I deal with people buying houses evrey day and d majority don't have an idea of what is really happening in terms of interest rate hikes and more to come. The desperate ftb are still clamouring to buy but recently I'd advised 2 of my own friends not to buy in d last month.
Personally I hope d crash does not happen as it wud hurt us all economically and d country wud struggle to get over it. I like living in Ireland close to my family and it wud pain me to leave for work abroad in whatever field. however I do think the country is gone to pot, I'm single without kids but have older sisters and brothers with kids and they have so bought into d american culture and to b honest d kids are spoilt rotten. pardon my lack of eluoquence here but d country is full of muppetts who are not going to enjoy d hard landing that looks to b on its way....
above is my opinion and not fact, please bear that in mind when u reply.
Is there anyway we can do a poll of peoples feelings about the market in this forum?
Would be interesting to see the results. Also would be interesting to include variables like...
- does the person voting already own a home or is renting
- does the person voting own an investment property
- location of voter
- how much has the person borrowed to buy a property
etc etc
I would assume people with big mortgages would say the market will never dip and the people renting will say its just around the corner.
Thats the only way we can make sense of this mammoth thread.
That's fine, take what's written here with a pinch of salt, but you see you haven't given any reasons for why you think the market will continue for the next 18 months apart from anecdotal "queues of people" that you've allegedly witnessed. Please tell us when and where.
'whathome' posted this on property bubbles a few days ago:
and what about the many reasons for changing sentiment that have been given already:
- rising interest rates (fact)
- rising energy costs (fact)
- change of government to one less favourable to developers (probable)
- stagnant rental market (fact)
- poor infrastructure making commuterland less and less attractive(fact)
- land corruption and artificially high land prices (fact)
- rapidly increasing inventory (fact)
- media hype and hard-sell of the 'latest developments' (anecdotal)
- unscrupulous availability of cheap money from the european banks (fact)
- Irish economic threats as a result of US economy (possibility)
- economic reliance on house-builing (fact)
- reliance on cheap imported labour (anecdotal)
- transient immigrant population who will up and leave if spooked (probable)
- Irish obsession with land-owning (fact)
- possibility that large numbers of section 23 investors will dump their investment properties onto the market if spooked (possibility)
etc., etc.
Do you have anything to add that proportionaly counteracts the above threats, facts and risks to the Irish property market?
I just cannot see how anyone can predict that "the housing market will continue to grow rapidy for at least another 18 months", I'm sorry, I really can't.
Also, are you a house/apartment/duplex owner? If yes, when and where did you buy?
I will not see that fall of yours by the end of the year Phoenix. I will however predict that certain apartments in residentially marginal areas will fall by 50% over the next 2 - 3 years probably 3 and that they will stay down there a long time.
still cant see it unravel that fast mate. The UK slump in the early 90s really started about mid to late 1990 and bottomed about 1993 with dead cat episodes in 1994 and 1995 .