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Grice and the story of the Cockroach- [broken link removed]

I subscribe to the diversification view and my overweight positions in Japan and defensive equities (which I have discussed for the last 3-4 years on here) have risen far higher to offset any recent fall in the silver price if you really want to know. I view a portfolio as a whole. Short term...

It is occuring elsewhere and the position of western countries is getting worse each year. Deficits continue which means that government debt continues to rise toward historic levels. Pensions offer an easy way out for bankrupt governments whether by further financial repression (taxation) or...

Anyone else concerned about the risk of expropriation of pension assets? Already a fair few countries nationalising public pensions to pay for short term deficits. Particularly dishonest. Personally I see paying off the mortgage as a safer investment than leave a nice pile at the prying eyes...

The key to focusing on the downside risk is valuation. Valuation determines the risk of being wrong whether one is looking at an individual stock or or an index tracker. Starting valuation is the largest determinant of future returns, especially when looking at whole sectors or markets...

Anyone with an interest in Polish apartments? I have a place in Warsaw in which the developer has hiked the annual management service charge up. Am interested in any views others would have on how the management system works in Poland. Am used to the 'residents committee' scrutinising...

Doubt it. Can see Iraq improving but think way too early for Iran. Frontier markets have a place to play in a well diversified portfolio. Generally lowish correlation with developed and emerging markets. Nonetheless I wouldn't want more than a couple of percentage allocated there. Personally...

There is a rather interesting book out titled SWAG (Silver, Wine, Art & Gold) Alternative Investments for the Coming Decade that brings up a couple of interesting investment concepts for the current economic climate. Definancialisation - The author cites From Taleb's Black Swan-...

Backed by the soverign states printing press! We are living in a financial represion age. UK, USA, Japan and Eurozone all technically bust. Oz somewhat better. I think an ok investment for smal alocation provided one`s portfolio also has precious metals, commercial property, equities...

I like Howard Marks objective view on the subject in his excellent book. [broken link removed] A theory that works in practice on occassions but is not the be all and end all theory to invest by. Efficient in terms of 'speedy, quick to incorporate information' but not 'right'.

What! Sailing is one of the most physically demanding of all the sports at the olympics. You are in the boat for a full week and the stamina required to keep the boat upright in force 6+ winds is immense. To compete at the olympics the top sailors will spend the whole winter in the gym...

Think that line sums it up. Stocks do very well over the very long term. Unfortunately the time period is often longer than many people's investment horizon. We are in a regression stage for stock markets since 2000. The 80s and 90s produced double digit returns on most years. The 60s and...

The ultimate currency collapse was the Weimer Republic. Adam Fergusson has written a harrowing tale of the collapse in his book 'When Money Dies'. He had an interview with moneyweek a while ago and said he didn't forsee hyperinflation in the West as in order to create hyperinflation you need a...

If it happened, rampant inflation, salaries rising at a slower pace than consumables. Local government would likely ramp up local taxes. Property taxes would increase, etc. Government would freeze public sector salaries or rise them at nominal rate below inflation. Capital controls could...

http://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-Secular-PE.pdf Marc you can't hide from the facts. The empirical evidence is clear. 2000 was the largest stock market bubble in history (excluding the Nikkei in 1990). You suddenly expect the market to grow when the 1980s-90s bull market produced...

Marc, you may find the attached of interest. Some new research into the secular cycles - http://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-Matrix-Taxpayer-Real1-11x17.pdf http://www.crestmontresearch.com/stock-matrix-options/ Essentially showing secular cycles of the S&P 500 including real...

Marc, Take a larger market index like the S&P 500, FTSE MIB, Nikkei or the FTSE All Share, etc, etc. They all show the same thing - indices that are grinding sideways and unable to breakthrough their previous highs. P/E multiples are regressing lower from the largest bubble in history in...

Unfortunately for the index trackers it does – http://alphahunt.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/dow-jones-historical-trends1.png For the market to go on a bull run from here when the market topped out in 2000 on the highest P/E in history and has only regressed 12 years when the past 3 secular...

The Western indexes are in a SECULAR bear market. A long grind sideways from the overvalued and speculative bubble of 2000. A bubble that peaked on the highest P/E in history. Empirical evidence shows that secular bear markets have typically lasted much longer than the 12 years since the last...