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Search took 0.02 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: zephyro
Forum: The General Election - Discussion 03-03-2011, 12:47 PM
Replies: 116
Views: 11,377
Posted By zephyro
Hi Brendan, would you have these figures for...

Hi Brendan, would you have these figures for previous years also?
Forum: The bailout, the banking crisis and other economic issues 30-03-2010, 03:27 PM
Replies: 52
Views: 7,718
Posted By zephyro
Re: Socialism. Has it ever worked economically?

Possibly but some people think otherwise: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anarcho-capitalism
Forum: Investments 15-05-2009, 03:36 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 745
Posted By zephyro
Re: Live share prices where to view?

finance.yahoo.com
finance.google.com
Forum: The great financial debates 07-02-2009, 07:29 PM
Replies: 65
Views: 11,362
Posted By zephyro
Re: Capitalism . . . Is it a failure, or is this just a blip!

I'd most definitely prefer to live in a truly capitalist system but I think its current implementation in the developed world is very flawed. What would you suggest as an alternative?
Forum: Investments 11-11-2008, 09:02 AM
Replies: 49
Views: 6,968
Posted By zephyro
Re: Value Investing - Courses in Dublin? and Advice please

What studies?
Forum: Investments 11-11-2008, 08:43 AM
Replies: 49
Views: 6,968
Posted By zephyro
Re: Value Investing - Courses in Dublin? and Advice please

There are many more if the below doesn't suffice. No assumptions made. If you know of a single reputable study that finds that growth stocks outperform in statistically significant out of sample...
Forum: Investments 10-11-2008, 08:57 AM
Replies: 49
Views: 6,968
Posted By zephyro
Re: Value Investing - Courses in Dublin? and Advice please

And yet studies have repeatedly shown that buying stocks at very low P/Bs greatly outperforms.
Forum: Investments 09-11-2008, 07:32 PM
Replies: 75
Views: 8,392
Posted By zephyro
Re: Dabbling in the stock market

It's very easy to pick a system that works in a particular sample. How does this system perform out of sample?
Forum: Investments 09-11-2008, 07:23 PM
Replies: 75
Views: 8,392
Posted By zephyro
Re: Dabbling in the stock market

Your approach seems to be to ignore backtesting and trade systems with real money, presumeably until they stop 'working'. I'm sure you realise there's a one in two chance that any system will record...
Forum: Investments 09-11-2008, 06:41 PM
Replies: 75
Views: 8,392
Posted By zephyro
Re: Dabbling in the stock market

Why doesn't he backtest correctly in that case?

You may be correct that edges do exist but have you any properly backtested verification?
Forum: Investments 09-11-2008, 02:23 PM
Replies: 75
Views: 8,392
Posted By zephyro
Re: Dabbling in the stock market

Do you or anyone else know of even one rule that outperforms in backtests in at least three statistically significant out-of-sample periods? The 'evidence' I've seen until now is laughably lacking in...
Forum: Investments 25-10-2008, 04:40 PM
Replies: 31
Views: 7,671
Posted By zephyro
Re: How to lose €14k in one year...

True. On average for all traders it's zero less costs, which is a lot less than 7%.



Quite a big if there. It always looks so obvious with the benefit of hindsight. Can you tell us what's going...
Forum: Investments 24-10-2008, 09:38 PM
Replies: 31
Views: 7,671
Posted By zephyro
Re: How to lose €14k in one year...

The difference is that the expected return from long-term investing in stocks is significantly positive but the expected return from short-term trading is negligibly different from zero.
Forum: Investments 24-10-2008, 08:46 PM
Replies: 28
Views: 10,220
Posted By zephyro
Re: A good time to buy bank shares?

3) PEAD http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_earnings_announcement_drift

4) Momentum http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Momentum_(finance))
Forum: Investments 09-10-2008, 03:34 PM
Replies: 37
Views: 5,211
Posted By zephyro
Re: Should I have nearly all my money invested with quinn.

You call that proof? Traders trade all day, some make money, the rest lose money, on average they break even before costs. There have been hundreds of statistical studies done on market timing,...
Forum: Investments 03-10-2008, 10:36 AM
Replies: 23
Views: 2,179
Posted By zephyro
Re: Spread betting &/or CFD's are NOT a good substitute for long term shareholding?

Trader performance is also generally very poor, though the industry presents the big winners while the losers lose everything. Is there a difference between identifying the good/lucky managed funds...
Forum: Investments 03-10-2008, 10:10 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 2,278
Posted By zephyro
Re: How Safe is Quinn Life Euro Freeway

I'd also like to know. As I understand it the assets in the Freeway funds would be protected in this scenario. Can anyone confirm?
Forum: Investments 30-09-2008, 08:22 AM
Replies: 34
Views: 3,569
Posted By zephyro
Re: Pro traders

It is if you can predict intra-day movements correctly more often than not. Like I said, I've no reason to believe I can.
Forum: Investments 29-09-2008, 07:13 PM
Replies: 34
Views: 3,569
Posted By zephyro
Re: Pro traders

I confine myself to longer-term objective indicators (e.g. PEAD, momentum, value etc.) because I've no reason to believe I can utilise the shorter-term subjective indicators used by day- and...
Forum: Investments 29-09-2008, 03:40 PM
Replies: 34
Views: 3,569
Posted By zephyro
Re: Pro traders

I see, so you would say it's your ability to interpret the indicators you use in a superior way to the majority of other traders that is the reason for your success? If so, do you think it is...
Forum: Investments 29-09-2008, 03:19 PM
Replies: 34
Views: 3,569
Posted By zephyro
Re: Pro traders

I've never heard of any indicator that does work consistently, can you enlighten me?
Forum: The great financial debates 18-09-2008, 12:26 PM
Replies: 195
Views: 28,149
Posted By zephyro
Re: Is financial spread betting gambling or investing?

It's very simple, the expected return of a long position is positive over any timeframe you choose, i.e. the probability of the return on a long position being positive is > 50% over minutes, hours,...
Forum: The great financial debates 17-09-2008, 03:28 PM
Replies: 195
Views: 28,149
Posted By zephyro
Re: Is financial spread betting gambling or investing?

No, timeframe doesn't matter.
Forum: The great financial debates 17-09-2008, 02:51 PM
Replies: 195
Views: 28,149
Posted By zephyro
Re: Is financial spread betting gambling or investing?

Just that the expected return of every short position is negative.
Forum: Investments 29-07-2008, 01:23 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 2,962
Posted By zephyro
Re: Quinnlife or Anglo Irish Bank for Child benefit savings?

And how exactly would you know when is a 'good' or 'bad' time to buy?
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